25,000 students have left the independent sector since VAT was brought in in January (despite promises to wait until the start of the academic year. Bringing it in early meant a couple of things- one that the government told a bald faced lie. two that the government thought they could skew the statistics with parents unwilling to uproot their children in the middle of an academic year so the government thought they could say 'see, no discernible exodus').
So now where are those students being educated? The vast bulk one assumes will have now entered the state sector. At a significant cost to the state. Whereas before their education was of no cost to the state. Never mind as pp mentioned about the knock on effects for entire communities where schools have had to close, or reduce staffing at all levels, reduce contracts with local suppliers etc.
It's an own goal. And it was both forseeeable and predictable. Indeed, it was forseeen and predicted. It was a policy borne out of gleeful spite and has - and will- cause untold harm to an entire cohort of students, most particularly SEN students and the small independent specialist SEN schools. It will have no effect on the bigger elite schools for all the reasons others have carefully and logically explained. But logic was never the strong point in the policy to begin with.