Most schools have absorbed the VAT costs and only put their fees up between 7-12%.
The 2025 intake hasn't begun yet. VAT was only rolled out in January.
For parents in financial distress with a child already at a private school - support is forthcoming.
I don't think we're going to feel the direct effects of this for some time. So I think it's difficult to call it.
I have noticed a huge uptick in private schools advertising. Posts around 'year 7 spaces still available' etc are everywhere at the moment. Parents may have accepted places while waiting on secondary school outcomes, or even infants. For infants it won't be until Mid-April when parents find out what the LA place is.
I just think it's far too soon to make a judgment call. If you can afford private school - you can likely find an extra £1-2k for fees for a child to finish off their year.
So I think starting from Sept 2025 and each consecutive year in take over the next 5yrs will be when we can measure the impact and have statistical evidence to support whether less children are attending private school, and what the impact to the state school system is (if at all).
I think it's fairly idiotic to think you can judge the impact 2 mths after it's implementation. All you can summarise is that there hasn't been a massive exodus as yet - but as I say many private schools are trying to absorb the costs.
I think most parents with a child happy and settled in school will try to find a way to make it work where they can, along with support from the schools. It's the parents who were considering private but where it's now out of budget - will be the telling sign. That won't be known until Sept 2025.