Are we heading into a major recession?

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Things are already tough in my industry - I’m a contractor and this past year is my worst in over two decades - but should I be expecting things to get worse not better?

and I sound stupid, but what are the main economic indicators?

Reform won't fix it, therein lies to problem. Many people put their faith in Labour because they wanted change. Except they can now see that Labour are actually worse. If voters think that both main parties are appalling, where do they go? The current voting intention polls show huge gains for reform.

This and yes to op

If millionaires are making so much from people being poorer why are they leaving the UK and dumping their investments?

Out net zero policies mean we pay up to 300 pounds a megawatts hour for intermittent offshore wind energy that used to cost 40 pounds a megawatt hour. We pay for battery storage on top due to the intermittency and billions of pounds for electricity cables out to the north sea wind farms. Out energy bills are 3 times higher than the USA and are the highest in the developed world.

We import over 30% of our electricity through sub sea cables because we don't make enough in that UK anymore. 6% of our energy comes from burning wood pellets in Yorkshire which have been imported from Brazil and North America.

If we had the same energy policies as the USA our energy bills would be 50% less.

How did the budget help?

Growth stalled and the private sector started decreasing with job losses due to those policies

AI screwing over my industry (editing, proofreading, writing)

Food costs a bomb

Mortgage rate relatively high compared to when we first got it

Kids clothes seem to be going up and up

Insurance going up every year

:/

I'm trying to think of businesses that were successful under the tories.

Mine was, and many others were just getting back on their feet after covid. But we mustn't let facts get in the way of an ideology!
You could start with Astazeneca.

"Shame Jeremy Corbyn didn't support remain isn't it."

Shame Cameron & Osborne spun out austerity for years.
Shame Cameron called a Referendum to keep the headbangers in his party quiet. That worked well.
Shame Johnson & Gove collaborated with Vote Leave.
Shame Theresa May's Mansion House speech & redlines propelled us towards a hard Brexit.
Shame Johnson and Frost's crappy deal was signed.

I didn't like Corbyn and didn't vote for him but he wasn't the biggest problem by a long way.

Now Farage - who welcomed Truss's budget as the first great Conservative budget - will play That's Not My Brexit.

@EasternStandard how did the Tory budget help?

Growth stalled and the private sector started decreasing with job losses due to those policies

Our productivity has been crap for years?

@HauntedBungalow take a look at private sector figures post GE and budget

It'll show you which ones are shrinking

Who will you blame for Austerity 2.0 in March? Anyone but labour I presume!

What do posters think any party can do to fix it? How do you fix the productivity issue? the implications of an ageing population? wage stagnation? a distorted housing market? services starved of investment?

@wipeywipe this is the issue for Reeves, Starmer and everyone pretty much from CBI press release. January looked particularly weak on jobs market which is after this report

Private sector firms expect activity to fall in the three months to March (weighted balance of -24%), according to the CBI’s latest Growth Indicator. Expectations are now at their weakest in over two years.
This pessimism was shared across all sub-sectors. Business volumes in the services sector are anticipated to decline (-18%), driven by predicted falls in both business and professional services (-13%) and consumer services (-37%). Distribution sales are expected to fall steeply (-35%), and manufacturers also anticipate output to fall (-31%), with expectations at their weakest since May 2020.
2020 was the pandemic so not great to be back there

I think that they urgently need to increase the personal allowance for tax. Frozen tax thresholds, combined with high inflation has decimated disposable income and removed the incentive to work.

People with kids are often better off not working, and higher earners are reducing hours to stay under tax thresholds.

They can start by not taxing jobs like the labour party.

As each low wage migrant costs the UK 500k over their lifetime and only 22% of the circa two million immigrants who came to the UK over the past two years work that would a save huge amount of tax. I've heard it's about 34 billion a year tax loss for the immigrants who came in last year. So that would be 68 billion a year for the immigrants who came to the UK in the past two years. Going forward that would save a lot of money if we had tighter immigration policies and restricted it to immigrants with the skills we absolutely need or who can pay for themselves.

We currently have policies which prioritise net zero. For instance there are roads which could be built and have an economic pay back period of one year, in other countries around the world they would build those roads. They would be pro jobs and pro growth. In the UK we don't build that road. We pick anti growth policies. We make ourselves poorer.

We have planning policies that have blocked multi billion pound investments in film studios, data centres. We have subsidised north sea wind farms where the majority of new jobs created are in Denmark and France rather than the UK.

We are paying Mauritius £9bn to gift them the Chagos islands 2000 kilometres away from Mauritius against the will of the Chagossians but for the benefit of Keir Starmers mates.

I think all reform need to do is stop the stupid decisions made by the current and last government and then we would be in a better position.

I think that they urgently need to increase the personal allowance for tax. Frozen tax thresholds, combined with high inflation has decimated disposable income and removed the incentive to work.

Agree, the Tories introduced this didn't they?

I think all reform need to do is stop the stupid decisions made by the current and last government and then we would be in a better position.

I feel like i'm reading those buses declaring how much more money we will have for the NHS...

Yes, Tories, but Labour could have ended it.

Not that I vote Tory or Labour. Both are shit.

*"In 2024, there are now 22 million people aged over 50 in England, equivalent to two in five of the total population and this is rapidly increasing: the population of people aged 50+ in England is projected to increase by 19.3% between 2024 and 2044 (an increase of 4.3 million people). The population aged 85+ is growing the fastest."

This is a major part of the problem with the add on costs of social care, pensions & healthcare. We are just going to keep
having to pay more tax.

Yes, Tories, but Labour could have ended it.

At least they didn't extend it.

Why don't you address specific points? Scared of the facts?

If you want to be poorer, have more crime, more immigration, higher energy bills then I'm sure Labour will give you that.

This is a major part of the problem with the add on costs of social care, pensions & healthcare. We are just going to keep
having to pay more tax.

Yes but they are taxing the wrong people. Over 50s are hoarding all the wealth while young workers can't even afford a home. Older people need to start paying more tax to cover their own care.

Hate to say it but we kind of need it for a reset on these crazy pieces in materials and labour.

The downside is, I know an awful lot of people will struggle before it gets better.

Why don't you address specific points? Scared of the facts?

How can I address something that's hypothetical? What facts?

If you want to be poorer, have more crime, more immigration, higher energy bills then I'm sure Labour will give you that.

My point was the Tories gave me all of this. What's confusing you about my posts? 😁