Are we heading into a major recession?

[bodychanges]

Things are already tough in my industry - I’m a contractor and this past year is my worst in over two decades - but should I be expecting things to get worse not better?

and I sound stupid, but what are the main economic indicators?

Labour are making really awful decisions. Name one Cabinet Minister that has run a company successfully or not?

They have literally talked the country down and taxed not just the big corporations but smashed the SMEs.

YANBU. The impact of the NI increase has yet to hit. Job vacancies are falling rapidly.

Unless some other indicators start to look up, I think yes, we will go into recession.

Labour are as terrible as ever at managing the economy but no-one could have foreseen that they would cock it up so disastrously and so quickly.

Starmer needs to reshuiffle Reeves as far away from the Exchequer as he possibly can. She is genuinely ignorant and it shows. The money markets know it. They have no faith in her, don't trust her and she needs to be replaced before she makes things even worse.

Who they replace her with though, that's a key question. I can't see an obvious choice.

Yup. I employ two over 65 women and 1 over 60 man. Part time.

Afraid this is what happens when you have a bunch of incompetents 'playing' at being in government. None of them have a clue what. Theyre doing. It's frightening.

^ This kind of covers it all. Now all Rachel and co. need to do is fix it.

This kind of covers it all. Now all Rachel and co. need to do is fix it.

I don't think it can be fixed, well at least not in my lifetime.

I hope it will be, but I see your point. First steps should be to reverse the NI increase for employers - a completely ridiculous idea when growth is needed in the economy! 🙄

I think we are in an interregnum period where the 'powers that be' know there are problems, but don't know how to deal with them without causing massive upheaval so are simply pretending that what worked in the past should be tried again. Meanwhile Trump, Musk and co are experimenting with creative destruction...

Yep, agree. Andy Burnham was on Radio 4 PM programme this evening. He hit every point on the head - I only hope his Labour friends in London were listening, but I suspect they were not.

Basically this

Reeves is making one bad decision after another and this Labour government in general has shown a great deal of incompetence and poor judgement.

Starmer need to sack the chancellor and put someone in place who actually has innovative ideas and enough experience and skills to turn things around.

As it stands they are just the Tories 2.0 and continuing to bring the country to its knees.

I think we are in an interregnum period where the 'powers that be' know there are problems, but don't know how to deal with them without causing massive upheaval so are simply pretending that what worked in the past should be tried again.

I agree but the public can't handle the truth.

Starmer need to sack the chancellor and put someone in place who actually has innovative ideas and enough experience and skills to turn things around.

It's unlikely we can turn things around & if there is a magic solution it will take years and years.

I have yet to catch up on this thread. But when I saw the word "interregnum", I wondered if someone was going to say that we are in a period where people do know what the next plan is but they're not ready to tell us yet. Like a "managed decline" scenario.

THE FACTS:

Nigel Farage openly lied and misled voters about Brexit.

Did I miss any?

Accurate though benefits are a trap

Who has the experience to be Chancellor within Labour? Who understands business both large and small?

Answer= no one in Labour. So where does this leave us??

I am a remainer but how can we blame the tories for brexit? Many of their MPs are remainers, David Cameron was one. Their mistake is they gave in to the pressure to give what the people wanted and hoped for the best, the choice to exit the EU. It is the utter idiocy of majority of British people that made Brexit happen.

The economy is struggling - thank you everyone who voted Labour. - one of the most predictable outcomes of voting these clueless idiots in.

I used to say that too…

Surely, as a starting point labour need to reverse NI increases, the employment rights bill and the EPR scheme. Food inflation is projected to increase by 4% and the job losses are already substantial. Retail (particularly) but many businesses can’t shoulder the additional costs. It was an utterly ridiculous decision.

Re housing. It’s a much tougher issue. You can’t just ‘deflate’ the market because you would have tens of thousands left in negative equity situations. Really, I think the answer lies in more social housing, no right to buy and tighter regulation around no right to remain in a council owned property if it is too large for the remaining tenant.

Labour will make sure we do, that's for sure.

Wow, thanks everyone. I’ve only just caught up with all the messages.

Sorry, sent in haste. So, yes, my takeaway is we are in a state and it’s not going to get any better.

im terrified for the NI increase in April. Even more people competing for even fewer jobs.

i really appreciate all the informed views.

@bodychanges There are jobs! We recruit foreign people into them. We do need to get the people in this country apready into the jobs. Angela Rayner will be amending employment legislation soon. So fewer jobs.

As for the earlier suggestion of much higher taxes on private landlords? That has to be one of the most stupid suggestions - it’s such a good idea for them to sell up and pull out. What would that do to rental prices? It’s financially illiterate like RR.