To wonder if Starmer can survive the vibe-shift?

[User09678]

Trump has been going hell for leather since his inauguration it seems, things are changing fast - Trump likes the UK, but he doesn't like Starmer. Starmer seems out of sync with the changing tide, and seems (to me) to get it wrong and make it worse everytime he opens his mouth. AIBU in wondering how long Starmer can hang on?

The Labour party won the election with 33.7% of the voting share so that it some fall from grace. Apparently the party have never polled lower than 18% in its entire history.

He can hang on until 2028. I doubt Labour will call an early GE unless the polls were in their favour. KS is and always has been a boring centrist.

Europe and the US continues to be plagued by right wing populism and it looks like the UK does too.

Hopefully in 2028 we will not have an even further lurch to the right.

I’m a left wing socialist so don’t really have any political representation.

I suspect Reform UK will continue to agitate, and it’s very easy for most in society (especially in England) to blame those who most recently arrived for all their problems. I can’t see Reform winning a majority but could see them overtaking the Lib Dem’s.

Trump ultimately is a protectionist. He’s a lot less interested in starmer and the UK than starmer and the UK are in him/the US. We really aren’t significant in the world or a major global player. Just a little country always whinging about immigration, and crying over the loss of the empire. Pathetic really.

The entirety of westminister (all parties) are very junior, severe lack of life and political experience and poorly advised. Farage is a very junior MP, and doesn’t seem very interested in the grunt work.

The UK doesn’t like a lot of change, hence (imo) why reform only got 5 seats. They might have found a group of people that are naive and easily led and appealed to the base instinct of racism but even if reform UK ever did get in, I doubt they’d actually achieve anything and people would still moan about immigration. We could have no immigrants and the English would still moan about immigration.

Did you vote in the last GE? We in the UK don’t have a presidential system. My ballot had at least 5 options to vote for. You can’t complain we don’t have a democracy if you don’t vote, and I’ve never heard of a constituency with only two candidates. I’m in favour of a more proportional system, but a democracy isn’t defined by you getting your own way or not.

The UK doesn’t like a lot of change, hence (imo) why reform only got 5 seats

This is more to do with the electoral system than number of votes

Eg Reform are polling higher than Labour currently

Unless the electoral system changes, the number of seats is the only thing that matters, whether one likes it or not.

There are four years to go. Let's see what the polls show then. Four years is a long time for Farage and co. to pretend to be genuinely representing their constituencies. I wonder who will be Tory leader in four years?

As I said I don't agree with pp voters that voters are resistant to change

In number of votes they do

Yes, absolutely. It's only the number of seats that counts. It's hard to predict what reform would net with any voting share but I saw some scenarios which suggested that they could net 139 seats at 26%, that they would become the largest party at 28% and could see an overall majority at 31%.

I mean it's all guesswork but it holds that even minor gains at this point would turn the two party system in their favour.

Reform Scenarios https://search.app/6kZn3yje5jkcourn8

But of course, there's a long time to go. And the situation seems so alien that it feels instinctively unlikely.

Reform came second in 89 Labour seats at the GE. If things continue as they are with the two main parties I think many more voters will hold their noses and vote for Reform.

They may do. But I also think the prospect of a Reform victory would galvinise tactical voting amongst left leaning voters and One Nation Conservatives.

It might also galvanise the youth vote who, broadly speaking, don't support Reform. Although there is some Reform support amongst younger men.

Would you vote conservative to keep reform out PandoraSox?

At the last election, the mood was get the tories out. There were websites set up telling voters how to vote in their constituency to remove the tories.
If the mood at the next election is get labour out, the same websites may show that voting reform is the best way to do it.

Yes. Absolutely.

That's interesting. Well, interesting times ahead, I suppose.

If you’re referring to the Find Out Now poll, it might be worth doing some reading on how credible they are with polling and what their sample for that poll was. Either way, the council by-elections since last July clearly haven’t reflected this projected success for Reform, they’ve won 7 seats from 184 (plus the 10 Reform councillors who resigned in Derby).

I think this obsession with polls so far away from an election is unhealthy, and reflective of this weird, daily focus on popularity over actual political issues and policy, e.g. Farage bragging about his TikTok followers when questioned about Reform MP James McMurdock’s conviction for violently kicking a woman (which he then didn’t fully disclose to the electorate…which raises questions over vetting processes by parties and clearance checks for MPs). This is not something we want to normalise.

Also, are you suggesting that Starmer is ‘constantly humiliated’ at PMQs? Like everyone else, he gets things wrong and I disagree with him at times, but ‘constantly humiliated’ is not an accurate description of reality at all.

Yeah, Starmer is wildly better than Kemi at PMQs. It's ridiculous to suggest otherwise. He's a career barrister and his party have a vast numerical advantage, so the format simply works much more to his advantage than anyone else's. Anyone wanting to slag him off or make him look weak would do better simply to gloss over PMQs.

Badenoch was close to tears when Starmer humiliated her about her hitherto total lack of interest in victims of grooming gangs. She is mostly terrible at PMQs. Her lack of experience really shows.

Find out now lay out their methodology so if you can highlight the troubling points of difference that you see comparative to others, like Yougov - who has a similar sample size, then I'd be grateful. They all seem to have a margin of error that makes it tricky to be definitive about who is most popular but they all show the trajectory of huge loss for labour, loss for conservatives and gains for reform. And, while I agree, so far out from the next g.e. it isn't indicative of future results but as a litmus test for whether public opinion is on the march, then yes, I think something bigger is afoot.

I agree with pp that the polls are meaningless this far away from a GE. Look at the polls in 1990 - 93 and compare with the outcome of the GE. Polls in 2009 indicated a Tory victory, which failed to materialise in 2010 when we had a hung Parliament.

If the polls are like this six months before the GE, then I'll worry.

I just wondered, did you expect me to say I wouldn't tactically vote Tory to keep Reform out?

Reform and its supporters frighten me. I would rather live under a Tory government(caveat: traditional version, not the Badenoch watered down Farage version) for the rest of my days than have a bunch of violent, grifting bigots in charge.

Well wasn’t that nice…

Really?

He always sounds so worked up by her. Repeating the same old lines every time.

Yes, I guess so. Prior to the election last year there was a lot of - I wouldn't marry/ be friends with a Tory from Labour supporters and I wondered if perhaps that the ideological rejection of conservatives might trump the tactical opposition to Reform. I was just curious. I voted Conservative for the first time in this election and I thought about it but bottled it in the booth the time before because of my gender critical standpoint, but that felt quite odd. Anyway, it was a bit nosey of me to ask but I appreciate the response.

Clearly pp thinking he is doing good job at PMQs are sticking to comments such as those Labour ones on mn

There's quite funny and accurate appraisals of his ability which are not as glowing as those from his supporters

It was an interesting question. I hope it is not something I have to contemplate in reality!

You think the general public pays much attention to PMQs?!