Reform UK neck and neck with Labour?

[NeatDog]

Absolutely shocked to read that in a poll Reform UK are neck and neck with Labour...

About 25% polling share for Reform and Labour.

I thought Blair was the worst PM ever, but Starmer seems to be giving him a run for his money.

Well if you bring more people in that need subsidy because they aren't net taxpayers that means the UK gets poorer and poorer and the government will have less tax per head of population. The impact of more immigrants that are not net taxpayers is:

• Less money per head to spend on the NHS so lower NHS salaries and higher waiting lists
• Less government spending per head on key services
• Less spending per head on education, lower salaries in schools
• Lower benefits for the unemployed
• Lower pensions

If immigrants are net taxpayers, than the opposite is true. The government will have more tax spend per head on average and everyone is better off.

You have no experience of the Australian immigration system nor living in Australia (I do) and it shows.

Not all forms of migration to Oz are on a points system - there are temporary worker schemes which can lead to PR and the domestic partners of those who hold the visa are not bound by the same criteria. Points were not relevant for me and I received by Oz passport within 4 years.

And there are many things on their skill shortage list which Britons would laugh about.

And they also have a much higher rate of immigration and immigrant population than the UK…

And nobody gets “deported” for merely not integrating and having poor English!

Labour have lost a LOT of voters. I used to be die-hard Labour but I didn't vote for them this past election because they no longer represent me, and I don't consider them to be a party who benefits the working class any more. A lot of the older working class who would have voted Labour before have swung the other way and are identifying with Reform. Blame the mainly right wing MSM telling them they need to be afraid of immigration, new ideas, the tech revolution and the younger generations, whilst completely ignoring that they also told them to vote Leave and look how that turned out. Nothing makes people radicalise more than fear.

The irony is a lot of people around here, a traditional Tory strong hold, thought fuck it they'd vote Labour.

None of them are particularly pleased with the outcome (and this is a major understatement)

We have problems here with immigrants making certain areas no-go zones. Lots of aging population struggling with fuel bills. Families doing their best being squeezed by the VAT on private schools, lots in our area use private schools because the Labour controlled for the last decade council has a failing SEN department so they are by no means wealthy.

Of course Labour have only been in for a few months, we have a fresh faced Labour MP. She doesn't stand a chance of reelection here.

Labour did not tell anybody to vote Leave?

Which areas have “immigrants” made “no-go” zones and are these areas really no-go or hjst areas xenophobes prefer to avoid because foreign accents scare them?

This link is to the immigration advice service website - I think they may be biased

The U.K. seem reluctant to publish data on migration costs and studies often use data from the age of 20 onwards (whereas a British citizen will cost the state as a child as children are not bringing in income).

The Netherlands have published data and it suggests our government may be misinforming us of the economic benefit of migration. I wish they (UK gov) would publish accurate data on the subject.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/01/04/asylum-seekers-drain-money-netherlands-migration/#:~:text=The%20burden%20on%20the%20taxpayer,that%20arrives%20in%20the%20country.

https://eutoday.net/fiscal-impact-of-immigration-in-the-netherlands/

Extract of eutoday article

• Positive Contributions: Migrants from Western countries, particularly North America, Scandinavia, and Japan, contribute positively. For instance, Japanese migrants were identified as significant contributors due to their high skill levels and strong labour market performance.
• Negative Contributions: Migrants from conflict-affected regions, such as Sudan, Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq, pose substantial fiscal challenges. The lifetime fiscal deficits for these groups can exceed €300,000, underscoring the difficulties in integrating asylum seekers from these regions.

There are lots of tables on this showing the difference highly skilled migrants vs low skilled migrants. It’s quite new data and doesn’t appear high on searches on Google. But it’s out there.

I'm not naming places as it is outing.

It's not to do with accents or skin colour, it's back to the problems that Starmer won't address and calls women right wing for even raising them.

If you are fortunate enough to live in an area free from places like this then you won't know what I'm talking about.

You think the Immigration Advice Service might be biased and then give us a link to The Telegraph? 😂

Your messages are totally conflicted.

The Korea Strait is five times the width of the Strait of Dover. You've also got to get to South Korea first, it's not like walking through Schengen.

Honestly OP, try thinking before you type.

@Dorisbonson interesting article re Japan and an ageing population. Implies it's not actually managing "just fine" as you said.

Japan on the brink due to falling birth rate - PM www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64373950

This study is on immigration in the Netherlands - the link looks dodgy so type in the study if you want to read it and don’t trust the link.

The paper is - DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES
IZA DP No. 17569
The Long-Term Fiscal Impact of
Immigrants in the Netherlands,
Differentiated by Motive, Source Region
and Generation
Jan van de Beek
Joop Hartog
Gerrit Kreffer
Hans Roodenburg

it is in English - I haven’t read all of it but it’s interesting. It’s very up to date (dec 24).

https://docs.iza.org/dp17569.pdf

There are plenty of native Brits in these roles....

Nice try though 🙄

Even worse budget than Truss.

Government borrowing costs are now more expensive than Italy, Spain, France etc. They are the highest they have been in almost 30 years.

Its hard to find a single positive thing they have done.

It looks like the budget was such a monumental fuck up that they will have to put taxes up again in April.

Despite the government having no money Starmer is apparently willing to "write a blank cheque" to hand the Chagos Islands over to Mauritius (1000 miles away from Chagos and hated by the Chagos islanders). No money but cutting deals because his lawyer mate works for the Mauritius government.

Pleased you agreed with my other points.

Our birth rate is substantially higher than Japans.

I have also posted a link to a study a few posts further down and a EU article on the same post. So people have choice and can read both. There’s a lot in the public domain however the guardian and bbc don’t appear to be writing on the topic. If the telegraph will publish the data why not read it? I read several news sources but am finding the bbc very light in many areas at the minute.

An immigration service who gets money from people getting visas etc isn’t a great source in my opinion. They look like a legal firm. But happy to be corrected. Personally it’s not a source I’d be happy using.

Just dismissing the Telegraph doesn’t help the debate if they are one of the only papers publishing data.

Bbc is poor at present and I say that after being an avid r4 listener for 15/20 years.

Nothing the working class in the North of England?! They are not entitled to an opinion! Shock horror!

How is it being caused by Musk? He said Farage wasn’t fit to lead earlier in the week. How is that good for Reform?

If it is the Elon effect, perhaps it’s because he’s telling the truth about the Labour Party?

This country must call a GE before 15 August 2029. We won’t have a country that we recognise by then.

Looks like Birmingham was a 'no-go' area for party leaders during the election campaign;

Two re-elected female MPs have relayed in sober victory speeches the intimidation and harassment they faced during the general election campaign.

Shabana Mahmood said masked men had disrupted a community meeting, "terrifying" people in attendance.

Analysis
None of the major party leaders visited Birmingham during the election campaign - perhaps overnight we found out why.

Tensions boiled never far from the surface at the count, and they threatened to spill over as the results were announced.

There was a sizeable police presence as a series of Labour MPs were loudly heckled during their victory speeches.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ng3j1pnpqo

Are you usually this riled up by rich blokes with an agenda? You want to have another election because Musk said so. There's an awful lot of hyperbole circulating at the moment. Get some fresh air.

Birmingham here as well;

Masked thugs surround Sky News reporter and slash van tyres with knife during live report

https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/uk-riots-birmingham-sky-news-reporter-thugs-b2591654.html

This reminds me of when I lived in Luton and the Daily Mail ran a story about how areas of Luton were now 'no go' for white people and how Sharia law was being enacted on the streets, or some such lunacy.

Complete bollocks of course! My job took me all over Luton and there were certainly no 'no go' areas and I still maintain it had the friendliest town centre in the UK.

However, there was a problem with groups of predatory men. A unique problem that I had not encountered anywhere else. I had quite a few scary encounters where men tried to lure me into car parks or buildings. These were Asian men, although I don't know their religious or cultural backgrounds. I worked for a very left-wing organisation and although we all knew about them, it would have been career suicide to voice it out loud.

Yes I saw this coming on X pretty much as soon as Labour got in.

You can tell reform posters as they all use those stupid made up names for Labour and Kier Starmer. They used similar silly names during Brexit (eg Remoaners) and Covid (plandemic).

It's so cringey!