To think that Reform might overtake the Conservatives at the next GE?

[Annabella92]

I'm not saying they should. I'm saying I think they might.

Aibu?

Who cares. It's in 5 years. We cross that bridge when we come to it.

It's possible, yes. I wouldn't say likely, but even the fact that it's plausible should give us all a jolt.

There's a lot of time between here and there, I think Reform will implode long before then.

If the Tories don’t get a grip their vote will collapse. Reform’s hasn’t grown for several elections though (look at UKIP v Reform over a few elections).

i hope so

I'd say very likely. I counted votes this time and it was pretty close between the Tories and reform

Reform will tap into Labours ethnic minority vote.

No I don’t

Hopefully

There was 2.7 million votes between them.

This makes no sense whatsoever.

I doubt it. They didnt do at all well locally to me - despite endless promotion by their local supporters.

And also by that time I presume they will have self imploded/had yet more scandal/drama than they already have had.

Yes I think they will because the Conservatives are so split they can't deliver on their promises.

Labour's largest ethnic minority vote is Muslim. Reform would have to do quite the swerve to tap into that.

They're not even a real party, it's just Farage's latest grift. Every few years he rebrands his "movement", and the same cohort of voters falls for it every time, even though he never does any actual work to run either the party, or the districts they win.

The people presently leading the way in Reform would have to get a lot better at being a coherent unit than they've historically managed.

It makes perfect sense. Especially if you don't make assumptions

Not in the area I counted. Reform gained over the Tories in one and were around 1500-2000 behind in the other 2.

I didn't count votes for the entire country

I definitely think we'll swing right at the next GE so I'm hoping the Tories have got themselves together as a viable option so we can stay closer to the centre.

We recently had a local by election. Reform got soundly whipped. Unless they a) merge back with the Tories and b) come up with policies that will relate to a wider audience, then no.

It's possible but I don't think NF will be able to hold things together that long.

No for several reasons. Farage agitated for Brexit and told a lot of lies and people haven't forgotten.

Their manifesto is uncosted and makes little sense. Farage is a huge Trump supporter and has barely spent any time in his constituency. I doubt they'd re-elect him and the party hangs on him.

Their MPs seem to be a bunch of dodgy bigots with no experience. People voted for them to get out the Tories. For some it was a protest vote but I doubt many see them as credible contenders.

However they are dragging the country further right and until the government sort out immigration, they'll remain a danger.

Figures were released today showing record numbers of immigrants. I think it was about 900k came in this year and neither party has a plan.

Badenoch has some kind of immigration idea but doesn't have the details. I imagine it will mostly incite division and be a lot of hot air. She's also threatening to get rid off our human rights.

As long as we don’t have to suffer another round of this muppet show !!! I know you all love them and they can do no wrong but back in the real world people are spitting feathers. Myself included. Hypocrites.

No the Tories will win back some seats

Farage will have fucked off the to US to stick his head up Trumps arse and the party is nothing without him

Only if you weren't paying attention to what just happened in the US or you've stuck your fingers in your ears so you can continue believing your preferred narrative.

So that Farage can promote American style evangelical culture war topics like rolling back abortion rights like he did this afternoon? Nah don’t think so.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/farage-abortion-limit-reform-b2655446.html

Plus the country would never see him. He’d be permanently in America promoting American interests. Has he even held a survey yet in Clacton?