To think that Reform might overtake the Conservatives at the next GE?

[Annabella92]

I'm not saying they should. I'm saying I think they might.

Aibu?

What do you mean if your white? Wanting a sensible immigration policy is not racist

The government’s post-Brexit deal caused the small boats and specifically its failure to reach a “returns agreement with the EU”, whereby unauthorised migrants to the UK could be returned to the first safe EU country they had entered.

Possibly. They were 2nd in my areas. Ahead of the Tories and Labour. I think there is even more risk of politicians and people don’t listen to real fears now. Job security, food security, etc after Labour’s budget. Shutting people down with hard left snobbery and insults will push people even further away.

Farage, and Reform, want American style health insurance, and, quite surprisingly to me actually, a debate on rolling back abortion limits. None of this is appealing to U.K. voters surely.
Ref the boats, he didn't cause them as such, but he has made them high priority by focussing his bile in this area when actually this isn't a unique U.K. issue, and they are a small percentage of overall immigration. His success with Brexit has increased immigration from outside the EU, and it is reasonable to expect more people from outside the more local area will stay longer/settle than those from many EU countries. He has no policy on how to resolve either unless to shoot some on the beaches.
Led by Donkeys have just done a piece about him speaking at a rich persons' conference on nomad visas - where and how to get the, so expecting a world without borders they can use as a tax free haven essentially - he also has his own EU passport - to me these things demonstrate his belief in rich having benefits the poorer don't need, unattractive for a leader of the country.
He has tried to cause unrest using Southport and I think had a hand in that ridiculous petition - to try and destabilise government at this point is very destabilising for the whole country and not what I expect of a reasonable MP. He doesn't work for his constituents or for the good of the U.K. but simply agitates and grifts and he/his party would have no idea how to run a country, nor do I think would they want the hard work.
The U.K. are mainly centrist normally, I'm not sure that there'd be enough of a swing right to enable a much more right wing party. Really the Tories need to find at least some centre ground and take this time to re-establish a party with a clear vision of who they are and what they believe and would deliver and not be swayed into trying to vote grab off Reform. I'm not sure they'll manage it but I am sure Reform will not increase their base much if they continue to just agitate and not present coherent and useful policies across range of government work - I so hope not anyway.

Who said it does? It is no secret or conspiracy that giving Reform more power won’t be great for us “ethnic minorities”. I say that as one of Farage’s constituents. I choose to stay with my family in London but my home is in Clacton. It’s unpleasant.

I suppose the pro-Reform threads and posts are just going to be a feature now.

For anyone who actually cares about the issue, Labour have already started mass deportations.

In fact, the 3 biggest mass deportations in UK history. All done legally.

But for Farage fans it's very much a case of "No, No, not THAT kind of mass deportations!"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14132075/DAN-HODGES-Labour-migrant-deportations.html

They've also substantially decreased the backlog of claims.

Yup. But Farage et al don't actually care about immigration or small boats crossings, they just use it stir up xenophobia. It's a tool for them.

I can't access that, you need to be a subscriber. What is the number?

We've always returned people to countries btw so the DM phrasing is Labour spin

They are known as enforced rerturns or voluntary returns and happen each year

That’s a good point actually - what is his policy / strategy to deal with the small boats he keeps banging on about? Gunboats in the channel? Mid-way aquatic wall? Rwanda plan?

Like with everything else - he doesn’t have a plan, he just doesn’t like anyone else’s.

I think Reform would have to get a lot better at focussing on seats rather than voter numbers. At the moment, they have support concentrated in the same constituencues, so whilst they might win that easily, they don't have enough support in multiple constituencies to win lots of seats.

Where do they send them to?

I read today that in August 600 people were sent to Brazil and the government are also sending people back to Iraq