To think that Reform might overtake the Conservatives at the next GE?

[Annabella92]

I'm not saying they should. I'm saying I think they might.

Aibu?

Well obviously in sone areas they were close…

Anyone who talks about a ‘narrative’ is not worth debating with.
What ‘ethnic minority vote’ for a start

It's not outwith the realms of possibility, but I'd say it's unlikely.

Reform is basically UKIP rebranded - UKIP got just under 4M votes in the 2015 GE, so Farage basically carried over the same votes and swung a few more in 2024.

Judging by the simmering scandals that appear to be brewing and Farage's inability to be a constituency MP it's not guaranteed they will be able to maintain those numbers.

Yes, I agree. It will be interesting to see how this thread ages in 5 years -or sooner, stranger things have happened.

I would love those of us who think it’s possible or even highly likely to be wrong though and I’ll happily return to eat my humble pie.

Never say never.

People are getting fed up and they don’t know where else to look. Labour and Tories are every bit to blame for the likes of Reform rising through the ranks

No, it doesn’t. What assumptions do you think I’m making?

Obviously. Which is why I bloody said it

I think she means you're assuming ethnic minorities won't vote for racists who want them deported? I'd have thought that was a safe enough assumption, had I not witnessed all the fishermen and farmers merrily voting for Brexit 🤦‍♀️

They’re going to have to actually do something to be elected. At the moment they’ve done absolutely nothing. Nigel Farage isn’t even in his constituency atm so after five years he’s unlikely to be re-elected.

Most votes this time were to get the tories out, and that includes the majority of people who voted for labour.

The Tories will almost certainly be re-elected after five years, unless labour actually change their tune and do something tangible.

Their manifesto of “we’re not the tories” isn’t going to sell at the next election, and right now they’ve only pissed off the electorate, and again, in five years time they’re not going to be able to say “we’ve had to deal with what the tories left behind,” that claim has a shelf life.

PS: before I’m accused of being a Tory bot (how tiresome but predictable, I didn’t vote for any of the above.

No.

1. as PP have said, they scored around the same vote as UKIP 10 years ago - and this latest election was the one where circumstances were the very best for them, yet they still couldn't build. Realistically there's always going to be around 10-12,% of voters who are thick/racist/gullible/conspiracy nuts, and these days they'll generally go for UKIP/Brexit party/Reform/whoever the latest grifting incarnation is.

2. yes Trumpism may be riding high right now but by the next UK GE we'll have witnessed four years of the effects of his policies from across the pond. I doubt it will look quite as appealing after seeing 30% inflation/nice old grandmothers getting deported/middle class families losing their homes and being persucuted because the mum had the audacity to work hard in a nice job in the civil service.

It was Brexit which caused the surge in numbers. All but his most devoted followers have realised immigration numbers were lower pre-Brexit.

Brexit was his fucked up baby. Even the farmers wouldn’t let him speak at their protest last week because they’ve clocked he’s becoming box office poison and would cause them PR problems. He’d turned up in his new Barbour coat and flat cap ready to put on a self promoting show.

I think the Conservatives would have to have performed really poorly over the next four years if they can't galvanise the traditional Conservative base to vote for them in response to this particular Labour government.

YANBU @Annabella92.

The next couple of years hold only more exposure of Tory incompetence, corruption and lies leaving right wingers with nowhere else to go but Reform UK.

We've already seen it. It's what happened n July of this year.

That doesn’t translate to overtaking the Tories nationally though, does it? They beat them in 5 seats. Means nothing

Labour don’t need to ‘change their tune’.
They are 4 months into do8ng exactly what they said. Lots of tangible things.

Eh? What “ethnic minority” in their right mind is voting for the people who want to “stop the boats” and use refugees as target practice?

No. I think that the Tories will be back stronger than last election as the current government has been a disappointment rather than the change that people were hoping for.

I can’t imagine Nigel doing much politically in 4 years time. He’s all about the money so would happily take some job in tv or something over fighting for his constituents. With Trump backing power next year, he will probably have more money making opportunities.

The current government has been in power 4 months. There’s 4.5 years for what they are doing to work out. And the Tories have not learned anything from their defeat. Still lying at the despatch box and behaving horrifically.

You don't want to stop the boats?

I’m mixed race (black/white), and I don’t want the boats either. I don’t know anyone minority or not who supports it. What I want is a proper sensible way for genuine asylum seekers to enter.

I also know the peope in boats are a tiny proportion of overall immigration. Most of it’s legal. Large numbers from Ukraine and Hing Kong. Many people seem to forget this. We should have a skills based policy.

I would absolutely loved to be proved wrong. Really I would. But from general consensus and the Tories not being a viable opposition, I am just saying, I really wouldn't be surprised

Are posters really so blind that they don't know that there are ethnic minorities that would quite happily reduce immigration?

Ask any immigrant who came here legally, jumping through a myriad of hoops to demonstrate whether they have the capacity to benefit the country if they appreciate people conflating legal migration with people sneaking into the country on small boats without a passport.

The Tory party has to stop ousting leaders if it ever wants to be electable.

It's one thing I thought Boris had pulled off 'back me or I'll sack you" led to a degree of unity and their clearest win for some time. Then he squandered it and they went back to the old squabbling. Too early to tell if Badenoch can hold the Tories together.

What I'm wondering is if Reform and the Tories will have a pact not to stand against each other to avoid splitting the vote.

We’ve ended up with this absolute shower of shit in charge because the conservatives cannot get their act together. Rishi was determined to be PM one way or another. He plotted and schemed until it happened. They spent the last five years of government stabbing each other in the back.

Hopefully they now have a leader they can all get behind and support but their reelection will need Farage to wind his neck in for the greater good.

Hopefully Keir and Rachel will be too busy in free VIP boxes to actually do any more damage.