To think that Reform might overtake the Conservatives at the next GE?

[Annabella92]

I'm not saying they should. I'm saying I think they might.

Aibu?

They've got another 3 years. Nothing Labour will do is going to make a significant improvement to any ordinary person's lives, because they're not, for example, going to mount a massive round of building social housing, which is one thing that might make a meaningful difference, and even if they did 3 years is not enough time. Trump's disastrous policies will harm the global economy and make everyone's lives worse.

Tories/Reform will stand with all kind of promises about making everything better and like the good old days by making things worse for poor people, minorities, immigrants, women and LGBTQ+ people, will be cheered on by the press for doing so and will win the election. 😑

Are you sure they haven’t told any lies?

I'd expect a high level of third party votes in the locals. The Tories are still pretty toxic and while Labour remain ahead in some polls, depending where you look, they're not going to benefit from that overwhelming fuck the Tories energy that was around for the last couple of years.

What's with the reform threads all of a sudden? Is this what it's going to be like for the next chunk of years. We've just had an election. Give it a bloody rest for Christmas or something.

Kier Liararmer?

Gosh aren't you clever

I would normally agree with this POV but Labour have destroyed their own lead and the tories are still a shambles.
Both parties really need to be aware of what they have done and how to stop parties like reform capitalising on it and that means from this point onwards not just in the run up to the election.

4.5years. Local elections are irrelevant.

Yes. Care to show any?

4.5 years.

Reform got more votes than the moronic libdems, who literally are a bunch of pointless zombies.

Reform is likely to take votes in the red wall from labour too. Both Tories and Labour need to watch out.

This is what happens when you let immigration run out of control, and call everyone a racist who dares call it out.

They have 4.5 years until they need a lead, plus they always said they’d be unpopular to start as nobody likes the hard decisions. If the Tories had taken them when they needed taking we wouldn’t be in this mess

As I said they'll show where the lead has gone

Irrelevant to what exactly?

Not to public sentiment. Labour have lost a lead in record time

Moving on from same pp on threads,

I'm not sure about Reform as in pp. It's a long way off but if things still feel worse as they do now for 70% - whatever that figure is will drive the GE as it did in the US

They do get a fair amount of votes and it'll likely go up but it's hard to convert to MPs

Or was last time

For those who say, 'it's a long way off' - things are happening right now. I've noticed a number of Reform constituency offices opening in different locations, especially areas that would be target seats for them. They didn't pack up and go home after the election. They're on manoeuvres, quietly building support.

The local elections in May will be telling.

I think it's a definite possibility, they gained alot of traction before the last election and although people are saying local elections don't count I have noticed (in my area) those standing have switched their alliance from Tory to reform, due to various reasons. We have no labour strongholds in our area, we did switch to lib dem but we did have a very low turnout. It could be as others have said a con/reform coalition or perhaps a reform candidate will become Tory leader and we would have a sort of reform lite? Obviously only my opinion, but labour have pretty much burnt their bridges where I am, big farming area and a large elderly population.

I don’t want people crossing the channel in rubber dinghies. But, unlike Reform voters, I am not going to be swayed by hyperfocus on immigration when there is a myriad of other issues that also need to be discussed, if that’s what you’re asking.

Since you’re so interested in my views on that particular part of my comment, let me ask you about your views on another part. How do you feel about the suggestion of using humans as “target practice”?

Garage says a lot of things that resonate with people! Maybe he would deal with the care crisis!

It's abhorrent. But Farage clearly said it wouldn't be tolerated within Reform. For clarity I didn't vote reform.....but as it currently looks, yes they have a real chance of a good election outcome next time..and this is a good thing.

Why is it a good thing? Have you read their manifesto or listened to Farage and his MPs?

Farage hasn't done any surgeries in his constituency. He's flitted back and forth to the States to see his BFFs Trump and Musk.

He's asking for abortion law to be changed. He lied throughout the Brexit campaign which has been an utter disaster and created the boat crisis.

He doesn't have a clue how he'll sort out the small boats. Why do people continue to believe him?

and this is a good thing.

If you’re white. My comment was in response to claims that they would get the “ethnic minority vote”. Which would be insane.

@GretchenWienersHair we need to have a 'hyperfocus' on immigration if we have a hope of solving our structural problems. I haven't seen the latest figures but legal immigration in the hundreds of thousands every year is bonkers.

Labour's pledge to build 1.5 million homes over the course of this parliament won't even touch the sides. That's 300,000 a year, way way less than the current figures. Not to mention the strain on other public services which we clearly don't have the money for right now.

The boats are a distraction, I agree, but still need to be stopped for a whole range of reasons.

I hope so too

I would hope they won't, but there does seem to be a shift towards them. Tbh I have been surprised in recent months at the growing popularity of GB News and I do think that as that becomes more 'mainstream' the people may well move closer to Reform.

Plus all the people that are 'politically homeless' (I am one) could well be seduced by them if the continue with their 'we are for the working class' (which I don't actually think they are) shtick.

There is a long way to go, and I can only hope that Labour or Con (I really don't care which at this stage) pull their fingers out of their arses and do something with the power they have.

Brexit caused the small boat issue? Really? How does that explain all illegal immigration into the EU then?