To think that Reform might overtake the Conservatives at the next GE?

[Annabella92]

I'm not saying they should. I'm saying I think they might.

Aibu?

No because it doesn’t fit the narrative does it.

Reform seemed quite well organised this time and had local support. Depends if conservatives stay/move right to lure them back or move to the centre to lure labour/libdems. If kemi is still leader she might get more ethnic minority votes but could lose some racist votes. However Trump won partly as he got ethnic minority male votes despite being white.

Well I certainly don’t want to use the people on them as “target practice”. But it sounds like I’m in the minority here.

What exactly about reform is racist?

What % of these professions voted for brexit?

I'd quite like to eat some humble pie.

I think that the NF party will do very well at the next election, because or in spite of the close ties with Trump.

Absolutely. Who's our voting base? People who like the establishment, value stability and tradition. What should we do?...Burn through as many party leaders and cabinet ministers as we can, throwing everything in chaos and behaving like a bunch of Machiavellian shits.

Yes, and we should be concerned about it. Only bothering to care five years when it materialises is exactly the problem.

So you do want to stop the boats?

I doubt anyone is in favour of people risking their lives in an inflatable to get here.

The problem is that it's a complex situation which is difficult to resolve.

Reform are populists and will say what they think people want to hear. For example, Farage said that people would be taken back to France. If we could send people back to France, we'd already be doing it.

One of his candidates on the campaign trail was talking about shooting them from Dover. That's also what some people want to hear but again, it's not going to happen.

Your assessment of the Tories is spot on. The rest is nonsense.

YABU, but I'm depressingly convinced that a Reform/Tory coalition will sweep the boards at the next election because Labour are convinced the best way to combat that is to be marginally less right wing than them, rather than offering any alternative that might upset the Daily Mail.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-is-a-labour-mp-calling-for-a-blasphemy-law/

They will do very well if shit like this keeps happening

I think even if the Tories had governed more competently from 2019-24 they'd probably have lost the GE anyway. Structural factors.

They'd been in a really long time, and there's no precedent for an incumbent party winning again after 14-15 years in the universal franchise era.

Then also incumbent parties mostly get the boot after periods of inflation like the one we've had. There probably wasn't anything they could've done to avoid losing this time round. But maybe if it hadn't turned into such a fiasco they might've kept the loss more respectable.

I do hope both parties disappear before the next elections. I do not think they have anything worthy to contribute. Actually, they are a serious danger to the country if they continue with their past and present lines. I am hoping for the formation of a reasonable right- centre party instead.

I think, regarding illegal immigration, Labour has the right idea. Target the gangs. They have already arrested some people involved. Deportation agreements are needed too. At least, we need to be able to check who this people are and if they have commited any crimes. That is paramount to me.
I would seriously consider putting these guys on intensive English courses, basic life skills in UK (taxes, council tax, NHS, car tax, car logbook, TV licence, laws, job applications, banking... and so on) and giving them a job. Take them to clear river beds of litter, laundry for care homes, sort items for charity shops/ food banks. Things that they could do to help the councils, with their level of English. At least, they would earn their keep and be occupied for 10-12 hours a day, between study and work. Just a normal routine really. Being iddle cannot really help anyone.

Yes a very right wing coalition by whatever name will win the next election. Just as they are will do across Europe.

Labour will likely more ground than they already have

Latest polling they were behind

Unlikely. To do it, Reform are going to need to professionalise and take steps to clean up their brand. There are too many dodgy candidates making dubious comments, they need proper vetting. The brand is currently too toxic, it scares off people in the middle ground.

Lose more ground that is

The question isn't really about Reform overtaking Conservatives but whether that vote split and Labour reducing will govern an odd result for a typically two major party FPTP system

It's a long way off though. Labour's first few months haven't been great for them

It’s interesting how you now think polls are fabulous but before t6e election poo pooed them. In any case, it’s 4.5 years. What the polls say now is irrelevant.

@cardibach I've already said to you that you had the wrong poster and you apologised.

You seem stuck on the same thing.

Given the state of Kier Liararmer, Reform will overtake Con AND Labour at this rate.

Oh ffs grow up! Stupid names make you look idiotic.
Plus there have been no lies.

Reform have got a Farage problem too. He's easily their most well known figure, but quite obviously isn't suited to a role like Leader of the Opposition. Too much grunt work and he'd likely have to curb his international engagements. But he sucks so much oxygen out of the room, just because of his profile.

Five years is a long time. He's managed to lose the lead already.

I guess we'll see where it's gone in local elections

I think the next election with be chaos and could go any way. IMO Labour won’t do well & unless the tories have an overhaul, they won’t either. I can’t see Reform ever doing well. They’ll be nobody decent to vote for.