To think Kemi and Nigel will likely win the next UK election after making a pact of some kind and fighting on an immigration / identity politics platform?

[MumtananoBay]

Especially after Trump’s win today.

labour has a tiny lead at 27% today (6th nov, politico.eu polling )

tories have 27. Reform has 19.

so that’s a possible 46/27 which gives a right wing team up more MPs than Labour has now. (OFC in any pact they won’t get all those votes)

this Labour majority is paper thin. Everyone hates Keir.

That’s a scary thought

You are unreasonable to assume that American politics mirrors the UK's at all.

Not sure Kemi will make it to the next election, the conservative party eats leaders.

Course it doesn't :) But they do not exist in a vacuum either :)

Not quite true - more that the right tends to act like a pack, if the leader is strong and successful they rally round, if they show weakness they get eaten.
So far, Kemi has been pretty damned strong.

YABU to say “everyone hates Keir” based on yourself and your friends. A Tory/Reform pact would have to have an agreement as to whether Kemi or Nigel would be PM. That would be an interesting discussion

Tell me where I am wrong if at all! More a thought experiment than anything else, but I personally predict that this is the direction of travel in the UK and in Europe, I foresee mass deportations before 2035 as the climate crisis gets worse and countries "pull up the drawbridge"

Oh sorry, I meant according to his approval ratings which are in the bin

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-keir-starmer-labour-suffers-historic-drop-in-approval-ratings/

Not my personal position, I think an Asda is missing it's manager somewhere but otherwise he is fine.

Unless Trump manages to become a dictator, there could well be another US election before the next one in the UK (or at least it will be close). Unless Trump does well, there may be a swing back to the Democrats by then.

I'd imagine that Farage might be offered a better job in the US now and won't stick around make a pact with whoever happens to be leading the Tory party at that point.

I don't hate Keir either.

I’m willing to bet Boris will be our next prime minister

@MumtananoBay , it seems the majority of Mumsnetters lean left politically and I doubt many will consider your suggestion likely but Keir is not popular at all and Labour wouldn’t be in power had right wing politicians got their act together. Furthermore the concerns of the American people are echoed on these shores. Labour’s foundations as a government are very sandy. We can but hope.

We have 4.5 years until the next election, unless you have a crystal ball you nor anyone else will have any idea who will win the next election. YABU

Who is the ‘everybody’” who hates Keir?

There is no way Kemi will be leader of the opposition come next election. They'll bring in who they perceive to be PM in about 3 yrs time

@doodleygirl "Who is the ‘everybody’” who hates Keir?"

The electorate:

www.politico.eu/article/uk-keir-starmer-labour-suffers-historic-drop-in-approval-ratings/

Well yes, however right now 60% of the Tory party think it's Kemi. The right do not kill strong leaders, they only turn on the weak, quickly and viciously. Perhaps something the left could learn from...

ok great, why?

"this Labour majority is paper thin. Everyone hates Keir."

Eh? They have a a massive majority of 156 seats. This means they can essentially pass any legislation they like as they don't have to fear any rebels.

Opinion polls and approvals do matter at all this early on in a term.

Starmer got in purely on the back of the media's post covid hysterical mudslinging against the Tories.

Labour raised taxes which they said they wouldn't, they've abolished winter fuel payments for oaps who cannot afford to lose it, they've released prisoners early while locking up people for tweets.

Starmer's days are indeed numbered. Not sure if Farage will feature at the next election but I predict Labour will be toast.

The cynic in me tells me that they think Kemi can hold the fort for a couple of years. Do I think that she is capable of PM, absolutely. Will she be next Tory PM, not a chance

To win she needs to be centre-right rather than full on right wing. So yes, be fairly moderate but commit to dealing with immigration. Problem is that nobody will believe her because they all say that then sack it off once in government.

this is a misunderstanding of the numbers. Labour have a seat majority. They do not have a popular vote majority at all, in fact they won the last election with a historically low total% of votes in the country. Labour lost because Reform ran - no other reason at all.

This is the polling on halloween.

4 years away

can’t be arsed to give this any headspace

Populism is spreading across continental Europe and increasingly it is young people supporting it and I think that trend will hit here. Reform came second in a lot of seats.
unless Keir Starmer can make a real impact on ordinary working people before the next election yes we will have reform in power in some shape or form or a far right conservative government