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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think Kemi and Nigel will likely win the next UK election after making a pact of some kind and fighting on an immigration / identity politics platform?

446 replies

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 14:54

Especially after Trump’s win today.

labour has a tiny lead at 27% today (6th nov, politico.eu polling )

tories have 27. Reform has 19.

so that’s a possible 46/27 which gives a right wing team up more MPs than Labour has now. (OFC in any pact they won’t get all those votes)

this Labour majority is paper thin. Everyone hates Keir.

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flipdiddle81 · 06/11/2024 15:28

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:26

I didn't get a vote, did you?

so yes, you’re a Trump supporter

(since when is “support” equal to a right to vote? 😕 )

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:29

SilverPuffin · 06/11/2024 15:26

It’s a big misunderstanding to assume that the Tory and Reform electorate can simply merge. The Tories lost plenty of ground to Lib/Lab last time round and would likely continue to do so should they get any closer to reform, possibly even more markedly as a large proportion of those with ‘further’ right leaning are likely already identifying in the 19%.

Absolutely agree, you can't just add them up, who knows how many would be lost in a merger or agreement of some kind. It would really rely on the details of the pact.

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beguilingeyes · 06/11/2024 15:29

Krampers · 06/11/2024 15:26

Farage is off to the US now that Trump has won.
Boris will make a comeback.
Kemi isnt winning anything UK is not ready for a non white PM. It literally is that simple. Same as America not ready for a woman leader let alone a POC one.

We've already had a non-white PM.

NotOneOfTheInCrowd · 06/11/2024 15:29

I think it is inevitable that conservative will win the next election. Remember that historically Labour have only once served two terms,.

Keir absolutely is incredibly unpopular, and he is going to have to pull something serious out of the bag in the next four years.

It’s worth remembering that the only reason labour are in power is because people voted for them to get the tories out. In four years time we’ll be seeing a different story, and labour won’t be able to trade off the “we’re not the tories” line that they did in the last election.

lovelysunshine22 · 06/11/2024 15:29

I hate Keir! Odious hypocrite...ive met him irl as well.

Notaflippinclue · 06/11/2024 15:29

I hate Starmer and his stasi and I'm right wing, working class, Christian Anglo Saxon - happy days

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:30

flipdiddle81 · 06/11/2024 15:28

so yes, you’re a Trump supporter

(since when is “support” equal to a right to vote? 😕 )

I dunno what sort of insult you think it might be to accuse someone of being a Trump supporter, given he just democratically won the vote of a country of 300 million people. I don't live there, luckily. So I don't get a vote.

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beguilingeyes · 06/11/2024 15:30

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:14

this is a misunderstanding of the numbers. Labour have a seat majority. They do not have a popular vote majority at all, in fact they won the last election with a historically low total% of votes in the country. Labour lost because Reform ran - no other reason at all.

This is the polling on halloween.

It doesn't matter what the polling is. There won't be an election for another five years, barring accidents. The election is over.

flipdiddle81 · 06/11/2024 15:31

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:30

I dunno what sort of insult you think it might be to accuse someone of being a Trump supporter, given he just democratically won the vote of a country of 300 million people. I don't live there, luckily. So I don't get a vote.

well a Trump supporter is unlikely to think it’s an insult

interesting though that i asked a question and you have been ever so defensive about your answer 😆

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:31

bombastix · 06/11/2024 15:28

Nah. He’s never shown any desire to govern. He likes power alright and fame, but if you think he’s going to be bought off by DPM then you are wrong. His ticket to success is to carry on mopping up affected Conservatives and old skool Northern lefties who don’t like migration.

I would make Badenoch’s life hell come election time. That’s what he will do. It’s what he’s always done to the Tories. He’s not going to share

The alternative is that Reform eats the Tories. Could happen....

OP posts:
flipdiddle81 · 06/11/2024 15:31

Trump supporter

You voted Reform didn’t you OP?

Krampers · 06/11/2024 15:32

beguilingeyes · 06/11/2024 15:29

We've already had a non-white PM.

Stupid comment - unelected.

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:32

beguilingeyes · 06/11/2024 15:30

It doesn't matter what the polling is. There won't be an election for another five years, barring accidents. The election is over.

There are a great many more reasons than accident why there could be another election. Also - why are you not interested in looking forward 4 years 6 months? It's hardly the next million years is it?

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bombastix · 06/11/2024 15:32

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:31

The alternative is that Reform eats the Tories. Could happen....

I believe this to be the likely outcome. If Badenoch does not deliver then much more likely

HRTQueen · 06/11/2024 15:33

No I do not think so many in the Tory party despise Farage

I think Kemi Badenoch shall be a thorn in Labour's side for a few years but won't win the next election

Labour have bigger issues at the moment the issue now how to work with Trump, I suspect David Lammy will soon be changing roles in the near future

LarkspurLane · 06/11/2024 15:33

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:07

Well yes, however right now 60% of the Tory party think it's Kemi. The right do not kill strong leaders, they only turn on the weak, quickly and viciously. Perhaps something the left could learn from...

Why do you think the Tory party elected so many weak leaders over the last five years?
As compared to say, the Labour party.

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:34

bombastix · 06/11/2024 15:32

I believe this to be the likely outcome. If Badenoch does not deliver then much more likely

likely inevitable if she does not deliver yes

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MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:34

LarkspurLane · 06/11/2024 15:33

Why do you think the Tory party elected so many weak leaders over the last five years?
As compared to say, the Labour party.

I'd say they only became weak after a baptism of fire in the real world, and then they were swiftly-ish removed

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Grsksm · 06/11/2024 15:35

I'm someone who is economically anti austerity and pro investment in public services but I don't support mass immigration

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:35

Grsksm · 06/11/2024 15:35

I'm someone who is economically anti austerity and pro investment in public services but I don't support mass immigration

#highfive

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Fairyliz · 06/11/2024 15:36

nightmarepickle2025 · 06/11/2024 15:03

I’m willing to bet Boris will be our next prime minister

As a betting women I would certainly place a bet on this. Stranger things have happened.

GoldenPheasant · 06/11/2024 15:36

I think it is inevitable that conservative will win the next election. Remember that historically Labour have only once served two terms,.

Where are you getting that from? MacDonald's and Attlee's governments were both elected twice in succession, Wilson's was elected twice in succession for two separate periods, and under Blair and Brown they served three terms.

ttcat37 · 06/11/2024 15:37

I don’t hate Keir, I really like him. He’s the best leader we’ve had for a very long time.

bombastix · 06/11/2024 15:38

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:34

likely inevitable if she does not deliver yes

Part of her job is to beat and destroy Reform. This is barely mentioned but she will need to to win. I believe it is the thing that does her leadership in. Because Nigel Farage has strongly affected every Conservative leader for the last 15 years. I don’t see her being different. She just has a much worse wicket and a party that is divided.

GoldenPheasant · 06/11/2024 15:38

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:00

Not quite true - more that the right tends to act like a pack, if the leader is strong and successful they rally round, if they show weakness they get eaten.
So far, Kemi has been pretty damned strong.

For five days? Isn't it a tad early to make that judgment? It's not like she's actually been tested with anything actually requiring strength.