To think Kemi and Nigel will likely win the next UK election after making a pact of some kind and fighting on an immigration / identity politics platform?

[MumtananoBay]

Especially after Trump’s win today.

labour has a tiny lead at 27% today (6th nov, politico.eu polling )

tories have 27. Reform has 19.

so that’s a possible 46/27 which gives a right wing team up more MPs than Labour has now. (OFC in any pact they won’t get all those votes)

this Labour majority is paper thin. Everyone hates Keir.

So what is different about Kemi?

Yes that’s correct - don’t know where this historic illiteracy comes from

Reform voter OP?

She's been Tory leader for less than a week. Let's at least get some perspective on things before rushing to judgement. From what I've seen of her so far, I think she's pretty awful. A pact with Farage? Ye gads: the stuff of nightmares.

Starmer can afford to be unpopular for a bit as it's ages to the next election.

Let's see where we are in 4 years.

is that based on your personal politics or your judgement of someone being the leader of the opposition and the tory party?

could easily be 2 years or less. Wars, economic collapse, all sorts of things could force an election

He was incredibly kind to someone I know, going out of his way to help him, all in a very quiet, understated way.

As a member of the Tory party I hope you are wrong OP. I do not want us to become 'Reform Lite'.

This is all to soon after the election for assumptions and guesses.
I do foresee Labour swinging left though. Led by Trade Union leaders who control so much of the Labour income.
I hope that at future PMQs there will be more emphasis on scrutiny of actions and policies. The Government can be fairly criticised about the Carbon Capture Idea. They are trying to rush into something that is yet to be proved. First they must design, build and operate a laboratory sized process.
Kemi must find definite targets to attack.

The majority is big. Four year term is most likely outcome.

She hasn't been given the time to prove herself good or bad yet. There has to be some fire to be baptised in. Todays PMQ for example

it's really not. What majority do you think Labour have exactly?

She was student politics. Nigel Farage can do that far better.

What do you like about him specifically?

Exactly. By contrast, it is Labour that is doing something concrete to deal with those exploiting immigrants through small boat trafficking. The Tories and Reform would be rash to assume that they can rely on this issue to get them back into office. They might have to try to come up with some real policies for actually governing the country for once.

The Labour Party have 411 seats! That's massive. Who is going to force them into an early election?

In Parliament? Massive. We just had a terrible government that eeked out nearly five years. Starmer won’t do less than four? Wishing doesn’t make it so.

What is the government’s current simple majority?
There are 650 seats in parliament. To have an overall majority, a political party must win over half of these seats: at least 326.
At the 2024 general election, the Labour Party won 411 seats. As of 28 October 2024, this stands at 402 seats following:

• the suspension of seven Labour MPs for voting in favour of an SNP amendment, tabled during the debate on the King’s Speech, which called for the government to abolish the two-child benefit limit;
• the resignation of Rosie Duffield from the Labour Party, citing a number of disagreements with the party's leadership including the prime minister's acceptance of gifts;
• the suspension of Mike Amesbury after an incident captured on CCTV.

The combined total of seats held by opposition parties, independent MPs and the Speaker is therefore 248. This gives the Labour Party a simple majority of 156 seats.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/government-majority

I am wanting to know that. I find him rather unpleasant. And untrustworthy despite his lawyer credentials.

Hope not

easy.

National Security Threat: A large-scale terrorist attack or a significant breach in national security could destabilise the government, leading to a call for a new election to regain public confidence or reset political direction.
Economic Collapse: Severe economic downturns, such as a stock market crash or hyperinflation, can erode public trust and pressure the government to seek a fresh mandate from the electorate to handle the crisis.
Pandemic Mismanagement: A major health crisis, like a resurgence of a pandemic or the failure to manage a widespread disease outbreak, could push the government to call an election if public pressure mounts over its handling of the situation.
Natural Disasters: Catastrophic events like widespread flooding, a major earthquake, or severe storms causing extensive damage can overwhelm government resources and reveal systemic weaknesses, leading to an election call if the public demands new leadership.
Political Scandal and Loss of Confidence: A substantial scandal involving the misuse of public funds, severe corruption, or cover-ups on a major scale (especially if linked to disaster mismanagement) can cause MPs and the public to lose confidence, prompting the Prime Minister to call an early election.

It might as well be. Cast your mind back four years and six months.

If you do not enjoy political speculation may I suggest you are in the wrong thread?

It is 163. What opinion polls in November 2024 say is not pertinent. 3 months after the 2019 election Boris had 50% support to Labour's 30%.

You forgot the sky might fall in.