To think it’s obvious why the birth rate is falling

[workidoos]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnvj3j27nmro.amp

Life is prohibitively expensive in this country. We earn the UK average income each and can’t foresee being able to comfortably have a second child without the financial impact being too great. I understand sacrifices can be made but in addition to extortionate childcare and the essentials we want to be able to afford extracurriculars, birthday parties, Christmases, trips away for us and DD and some basic savings for her future. I’m not talking private school or extravagant holidays either. With another this would be harder, I’d have to definitely work full time and for longer to afford it and thus losing out on work life balance for what’s likely to be increased mental load and stress in some way or another.

On a local group someone was saying it’s over £100 for two adults and a child to enter a festive park nearby and see Santa. Mind boggling. As a family of 3 it then feels like the natural choice to stay that way, despite the fact we always saw ourselves with a bigger family.

Does this sound like anyone else’s situation? AIBU to think this news shouldn’t be a surprise?

It’s not going to collapse. The population growth rate has been slowly declining since1960 and is projected to reach zero growth by 2050. A century to get to zero growth and then a slow decline is more than slow enough for us to adjust as we go.

Anti ageing drugs? Nonsense. Nobody wants to be 120.

In the past most women expected that was their role in life. Kids were the priority and part time menial work fitted round them. They watched their own Mothers bring up 6, 8, 10 etc children. Four kids to a bedroom, no holidays except Blackpool every few years.

Most people now are from smaller families and careers are the important thing with maybe one or 2 kids squeezed in that are brought up by via child care/Granny. The desire to have a posh home, bedrooms for all, holidays abroad, activities every weekend, 2 cars,massive mortgage etc has tipped the balance financially and kids upbringings are more quality than quantity.

I would have loved more kids but not enough time or money to give them everything I wanted to.

Ok society will collapse then, people living ever longer and an ever diminishing supply of young people expected to support them, this is not going to go well

Oh they do! I certainly wouldn't but plenty do

I was listening to the BBC item this evening and they cited Hungary where 5% of their national spending was going on boosting the birth rate. That compares to 3% on defence. They were offering massive financial incentives for having more DC. Their birth rates were still only just above our own.

So of course finances matter but they aren’t the only factor and possibly not the most important one.

Another programme I heard focused on South Korea where the birth rate is frighteningly low. They said that misogyny was massive and the women were fighting back by simply refusing to have DC and take on all the load.

Economic pressures have something to do with it, but also a certain number of people, male and female, have looked at the people they know who are raising children and thought 'that looks like a really crap lifestyle, I'm not doing that' and don't.

Yes but population growth in recent years has also been caused by increased life expectancy - birth rates have been falling but compensated for by people sticking around longer. Life expectancy is likely topping out but even if it isn’t, productive life seems to have so the dependency ratio will become v problematic. The population will be old and if BR remains below 2 then it will stay that way as each reproducing cohort will be smaller than the last.

I agree that cost plays a factor, cost of living as much as anything specifically childcare related. I’m on maternity leave currently and now onto the SMP only portion and we are fortunate that my husband is a high-er earner (probably not by MN standards) so we can cover all bills and savings without really having to make any changes. When you consider the average salary in the UK is around £36k, if the father earns that there’s a good chance that that salary doesn’t cover all of mortgage/household bills/food etc, it makes maternity leave unaffordable unless you build up large savings beforehand.

I do think people waiting until later in life to try for babies due to prioritising career progression and getting on the property ladder plays a part though. I’m in my 20’s and just had my first baby but there were multiple other female colleagues of mine trying to conceive their first baby when I was pregnant all between 37 and 40 who were struggling and still have yet to conceive sadly so are now waiting on NHS treatment or trying to find a way to afford private.

Definitely the cost for us. I don't earn far off and my husband earns a six figure salary but we live in a city and genuinely don't think we can comfortably afford another.

Also we are mid thirties now and feel done. I personally don't want another late thirties if I can avoid it. We prioritised our careers (in part for more money) in our twenties so we started too late for a third perhaps. No doubt many will be prioritising careers until they can simply afford one child let alone a second or third.

Expectations have changed.

I never went to see Santa when I was a kid. It didn't exist.

I had one birthday party, it was round at my house, we did the pass the parcel and a few other games, then it was sandwiches and time to go home.

I went on holiday twice in my childhood until I was 18.

We wore the same clothes over and over and I had all my brother's handme-downs.

So yes, it is possible to lead a much simpler life but we all got used to having a lot more 'treats', entertainment etc. And now everyone feels like you're missing out if you're not leading the life of an influencer.

But overall OP I think yes you're right, just every day life is very expensive now.

We're staying as a 3 rather than having a second baby partly because of how expensive everything is. We can afford it, but just in principle I can't imagine paying double child fees for all the stuff we want to do. Even now, we often end up just one parent taking DS to fun places and feeling sad the other misses out, because the cost of 2 adults alongside the child is insane.

(Obviously we also just weren't that dedicated to having a second, that we're willing to make this choice)

I actually think it’s more complex than cost of living. I think people are more selfish (not necessarily in a bad way, perhaps self sufficient is a better choice of words) and our society doesn’t actually really like or value children as much anymore. You only have to read the million threads about people moaning about children in restaurants / children in public in general etc. People have lost patience with other people and specifically children. My dd is 21 and doesn’t want children at all. She wants to live completely independently - which she is now doing - and spend time with friends, work, travel etc. Not remotely interested in marriage or relationships or children. Most of her friends are the same.

I think a lot of it is this. When I was pregnant with DD - everyone told me it would be awful. I was shocked by it actually being a pleasant experience.

Lots of people are listening when others say it's awful - and just saying "nah, no thanks" it's almost fashionable to complain about your kids atm.

People seem baffled when I say I love looking after my DD

I see your point and it would be interesting to see the data split by those who work for a living and those who rely on state support. I suspect the biggest drop in birth rate will be among working people who simply couldn’t afford childcare etc.

I don’t doubt that that’s part of it but from my group of friends reasons for not having children are: just didn’t want them; disabilities made it hard to find a partner; very focused on career and didn’t want to do take attention away from it; relationship break up in 30s and didn’t meet new partner until into their 40s; very traumatic miscarriage and didn’t want to risk going through it again; infertility; wanted to keep travelling and meeting new people.

Now these people are mainly well off and all have professional careers so not necessarily representative but it’s not just money.

There’s so many factors!

Takes longer to afford a house, so you’re older when you start

Probably live in a small house so may not have space.

Childcare ludicrously expensive

Unaffordable for one parent to stop work

The % of women not having any at all means those having them would all need to be having bigger families

That may be choice or not

Women want their financial independence and pensions

Women still seem to be expected to take on domestic responsibilities - but also be an equal earner

etc etx

I think there’s something in that, maybe it’s not absolute hardship more the gap between aspiration and what we are told is normal, and what we can afford. After all, birth rates tend to be highest in poor countries. I know it’s extreme but look at Gaza, the birthdate there is extremely high despite dire conditions. It is expected there and large families are seen as a good thing.

I think that’s pretty normal for 21 though - I expect a lot of them will have changed their minds by the time they’re 31.

I read Paul Ehrlich’s work as a teenager, warning about the problems with overpopulation, and opted out.

The main reason I decided not to have kids, was seeing female friends and relatives consistently taking the hit to their careers and finances. In some cases leaving them trapped in relationships where they weren't happy but felt they had to stay. Some exceptions, but not many.

Plus the dire state of maternity care which has only got worse. A good friend is about to have another round of surgery to try and resolve the birth injuries she was left with, after her youngest (now age 5) was born. Another had such a traumatic delivery with her first, that she's flatly refused to have any more.

Let's not forget the shitty societal expectations that you're not contributing if you are a SAHM, but you're a bad mum if you go to work and put your child into nursery. Women are damned if they do and damned if they don't. Not missing the obvious that by not having kids, I'm a selfish child-hating harpy.

Governments need to look at the inherent problems that are causing this, because although money is definitely a factor, it's not the only reason. South Korea being an excellent example of this.

Very simplistic. I come from a poor country. Abortion is a crime, DV is high. And that’s not even in a desperately poor country. There are other reasons why children come into the world beyond parents want them.

Poor countries also often have poor education (eg sex education) and limited access to healthcare/contraception. Possibly as much reasons as it being planned/desirable to have a large family.

but it’s not just money

Definitely not! Don’t have and can’t have kids, I’m certainly not living a life of luxury! I’m feeling the pinch as a single woman, and if anything my colleagues with kids seem to have vastly more disposable income than me - Disneyland every year, expensive cars, hobbies etc.

I do think it’s fashionable to complain about how shit child-rearing is (who’s that author that made a fortune with her Why Mummy Drinks books?)… although the moment you voice your own desire to remain childfree, the tone then rapidly switches and you get told that it’s the most wonderful thing ever and you’ll never know true love/selflessness etc etc.

Nothing on earth could motivate me into parenthood, even if my body could do it. It just looks so staggeringly unappealing.

A key point is that even factoring in inflation salaries have no way near kept up with the cost of a house. We would love more children having both come from families of 4+ children but knowing that we will work the same hours to give our children a lower quality of life than we had growing up (in similar careers to our parents) makes it difficult.