To think it’s obvious why the birth rate is falling

[workidoos]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnvj3j27nmro.amp

Life is prohibitively expensive in this country. We earn the UK average income each and can’t foresee being able to comfortably have a second child without the financial impact being too great. I understand sacrifices can be made but in addition to extortionate childcare and the essentials we want to be able to afford extracurriculars, birthday parties, Christmases, trips away for us and DD and some basic savings for her future. I’m not talking private school or extravagant holidays either. With another this would be harder, I’d have to definitely work full time and for longer to afford it and thus losing out on work life balance for what’s likely to be increased mental load and stress in some way or another.

On a local group someone was saying it’s over £100 for two adults and a child to enter a festive park nearby and see Santa. Mind boggling. As a family of 3 it then feels like the natural choice to stay that way, despite the fact we always saw ourselves with a bigger family.

Does this sound like anyone else’s situation? AIBU to think this news shouldn’t be a surprise?

So...People aren't having children anymore because:
War in other countries
The environment
Scary immigrants

I get the financial aspect; that's real and present and impacts on a daily basis. I'm often accused of being over imaginative and a worrier, but I don't really get the other reasons for not wanting children. If you don't want them, you don't want them. Reason enough.

Personally, I'm glad my gran was selfish enough to pop out 4 of her kids when the world appeared to going to hell in a handcart during ww2, otherwise I wouldn't be here to drop my kids into the apocalyptic disaster that apparently awaits them.

Having said that, my ancestors must have endured a fair few apocalypses (Anglo saxon invasion; French invasion; English invasion; plagues; civil War....) , so I'm sure they'll survive.

I think the other stuff is just excuses, the real reason women aren't having kids is because they have other things to do nowadays, they aren't just defined as mothers or mothers in waiting nowadays. When people get married nowadays you don't immediately get the "when will be hearing the pitter patter of tiny feet?" type comments that were commonplace 20 years ago.

Perhaps having campaigned long and hard to enjoy having the vote, having some sort of wage parity, being able to do the same sort of work as males, having equality of education, being able to limit actually having children, not being told what to do by religious institutions and society in general, a lot more women are now enjoying the benefits and thinking yes, this is a life for me. Find a partner happy to share this with you, and sorry but why would a lot of women want to give this up?

As well as the ONS statistics for reported crimes, there's the annual Crime Survey for England & Wales (where people are surveyed on their experiences of crime, whether or not they actually reported it to the police). Violent crime is way down on their statistics too (and, again, violent crime had its major peak in the early/mid 90s).

Violent crime is, undoubtedly at lower rates than it has been for decades (same for theft, burglary and alike too) and much, much lower than it was the 90s.

I had the arse pestered off me about when I was having a kid and still do in 2024. I had one.

My maternal nan was one of 6. They all had between 2 and 5 kids. My nan had 3 then 5 grandkids. Only 2 of the grandkids have kids. One has 1 (me) and 1 has 2. There will be no more. Years ago you'd expect maybe 10 great grandkids from them numbers.
My other nan was from similar size family. Had 2 kids. 4 grandkids and only 1 great grandchild (mine) there is a possibility they may have more but no where near the 8 or so they would have had.

If we go back to when women had say 12 children, I don’t think given the choice many women would have chosen to have 12 children, or be pregnant at least 12 times, or go through labour at least 12 times.
My own grandmother told me one of her sisters when through hell trying to get rid of her unwanted pregnancy. She was trapped in a hell of a marriage but told by her family that she had made her bed and now she had to lie in it. Divorce was unthinkable then. Having a child out of wedlock was unthinkable. People look back on the past with rose tinted glasses.
Women ( and men) now have choices. It’s 100% a choice whether to continue with a pregnancy now. It’s also a choice whether to stay in a bad relationship.

My best friend is 1 of 4. She is childfree. A long time ago her mother told her how envious and proud she was of her, and that given the choice she would never have had 4 children.

A PP mentioned China à while back.
It's well known they had the one child policy all through the 80s and 90s, and now they're facing a similar demographic problem with an ageing population. The government has now lifted it, probably thinking people will go back to having lots of babies, but they're not.

They're also 'missing' a few million women as many baby girls were either abandoned, aborted or adopted aboard.

The communist party aren't afraid to take strong action to get what they want. I really hope they won't start attacking women's rights once their carrot incentives don't work.

In China people want boys because when they get sick and old, it is the man’s family who looks after them. The go and live with his family, not hers so that is why they want a boy. Obviously as with virtually every other country, males are valued more than females. It’s not rocket science therefore to predict that the female babies would be tossed aside as couples want a boy if they can only have one. It’s also obvious that this would lead to a reduced birth rate for a very long time.
This isn’t specific to China, I think this would happen in any country if you imposed a one child rule.

This issue is playing out fully now. Not enough wives, women being pressured. I have also seen reports of kidnap and shared wives

Actually, this has really changed. It's almost the other way round now because it's an industrialised/ urban economy and women have better employment prospects than men in a lot of sectors such as light manufacturing. Multi generational households are also becoming less common in big cities. In the 90's the "orphanage" residents were almost 100% girls, now it's almost all boys - the only girls are those with extremely severe disabilities.

Also, the sex imbalance in the childbearing population is an issue but honestly the social and economic factors are more important. Affordability is very stretched, particularly in the big cities, but more importantly, if you grow up in a culture where you are an only child, your parents possibly were, and virtually everyone else you know is an only child, that becomes your frame of reference. Telling a Chinese couple to have 3 kids would be like the UK government telling me to have 6 kids. I'd be like "no way- that's a ridiculous number of kids.". It would go against everything I've absorbed about normal family size and parenting ideals.

Interesting article on BBC website today around man without children….

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp81ynn7r4mo

Really interesting article. Thanks! It’s not just about women!

Thanks

From the article, I think this is actually the key:
"Like marriage, having a child was once seen as a cornerstone event, something young people did as they embarked on adult life. Now, says Professor Rotkirch, it’s seen as a capstone event – what you do once other goals have been achieved."

That was an interesting article.

Another reason for declining birth rates, Straub and Hadley point out, may be the fact that the conversation on fertility focuses almost totally on women. Any policies designed to tackle it are missing half the picture.

That so true - it's all on women. Interestingly I saw another article on my newsfeed can't now find that was talking about male infertility post 35 - new research was saying they were 4 time more likely than under 35s to have problems with fertility - age adversely affecting fertility shouldn't be a surprise but with men rarely gets talked about.

It's interesting to note reasons for the increase in age of conception. Whilst economic reasons are obvious - waiting to have reached a position of financial stability - I think there are other factors to consider.

In the past 20 years, the number of young people continuing in full time education until their early 20s has massively increased. Obviously, this delays the financial independence needed for child-rearing and further delays the option of having even a home to raise those children in, but it has also had another effect.

When it was much more common for young adults to start working at 15/16, not only were they in a better position financially to have children in their early 20s, it could be argued they were emotionally more mature, having already been working for at least 4 years and often already living outside the family home.

Whilst much is made of the science behind the brain not being fully developed until around 27, we have no reason to assume this has not always been the case, yet far more people below this age in the past seemed capable of living adult lives. It seems that increased levels of being cocooned in the Education system for longer and by necessity being in the family home longer may also be delaying maturity.

Our bodies still operate on optimal fertility levels before the age of 35, but fewer and fewer of us have reached the point of not only financial stability, but the emotional maturity that our predecessors would have developed by this time through necessity. Our children are 'children' for longer than they have ever been. Even allowing for the multi-generational living of the past, there is a wealth of difference between my father leaving school at 14 to work to bring money into the family home and Joe Bloggs bringing his washing home from uni at 20.

Biologically, we still need to be having children in our 20s. Financially and, increasingly, emotionally, we simply aren't ready at that age, to the point where having children in your 20s is beginning to be viewed as almost the equivalent of being what used to be called a 'gymslip mum'.

Yes, that was a piece I particularly noticed as well. It was interesting how (some) women tend to try and find a life partner that can give them a better quality of life as well, well educated, better prospects, which leaves some males not seen as good choices until they have matured and got on a bit better. By which time, their fertility might be on the slide in some cases, so entering into a partnership later might mean harder to conceive.

You make very good points @ObelixtheGaul

I can understand why a reduction in birth rate has happened completely. I had my children in the late 2000s. Bought a house at a reasonable price after benefitting from a rise in the market selling my first flat. Our mortgage is low, we haven't had childcare expenses and I have been able to work part time. I acknowledge we have been very lucky. Life is incredibly expensive now. Absolutely everything revolves around quality affordable housing. Simple as that.

YANBU

This isn’t specific to China, I think this would happen in any country if you imposed a one child rule.

Absolutely, I was wondering about India, which is comparable in population and preference for boys, but without the one child policy.
It apprears their birth rate is also decreasing each year from 6.2 (!) births per woman in 1950 to 2.1 in 2024.

The birth rate reduction is happening worldwide, regardless of house prices. It's a good thing that should be celebrated as it means women are not feeling obligated to breed anymore.

Biologically, we still need to be having children in our 20s. Financially and, increasingly, emotionally, we simply aren't ready at that age, to the point where having children in your 20s is beginning to be viewed as almost the equivalent of being what used to be called a 'gymslip mum'.
Also when people left school at 16 they often worked locally - family was around to help and show interest and if they did apprenticeships they would be skilled by early 20s.
And waiting until you have your career on track before starting a family makes it very hard work, juggling both. It doesn't look appealing.