To think the Chinese gender prediction calculator is always accurate?

[Dreamingofthree]

Eerily so for me and everyone i know (who’s had kids)

is there anyone out there who’s it’s not been accurate for

link below

https://www.babycenter.com/chinese-gender-predictor

Yabu- it’s not always write, it’s not science. Yanbu- it’s been bang on for everyone I know, it’s magic

I think what you understand and perhaps what a lot of people don't understand about probability is it only averages out at 50% over a fairly decent sample size. Hence, with a coin, you can get 20 heads in a row and one tail, but overall you've still got a 50% chance and it doesn't make the coin "magic". Likewise, someone else could get 20 tails in a row and one head. Because it's a 50% chance per attempt, which is different to it needing to be 50% over any given sample size, however small. Obviously both those cases would be unusual.

So someone's immediate family might find this predictor "accurate" but that's just a small sample size so not representative of the accuracy of the thing as a whole. But on this thread with a much larger sample size the reality becomes clear that it's just a guess.

Exactly @MiraculousLadybug . I don't understand how this is even a question/discussion as the concept is so simple to understand and easily demonstrated that surely it is studied at school at some point.

A class of students each tosses a coin a few hundred times and makes a visual representation of the results using a spreadsheet or an app. The results are analysed to show that it is indeed random when you have enough results it will be 50/50 but there will be runs of all heads, all tails or repeating 'patterns'.

Anyone saying that a 'gender predictor' or citing examples such as 'I knew SIL would have a girl because she's got two already' is true is simply zooming in on the section of the chart of random results that illustrates the point they think they are making.

But each outcome is equally likely, as is the case for pregnancies, OK there is a slight bias towards boys, but for any randomly selected couple it cannot be predicted that they will have a boy or a girl with any more reliability than the more or less equally likely 50/50 outcome.

Well according to that I'm a boy and my brother is a girl. So nope.

@Dreamingofthree " Yeah it has been eerily correct with the people I know but as demonstrated by the thread it’s not the case for everyone"

But it's not "eerily correct". It's just as correct or not correct as it should be.

Wrong for me 2/2 and for my mum who has many many children it was wrong 4/9

Literally isn’t

What?

A guess is just a guess - pure luck and randomness.

If using a tool, even if not a perfect one, gets you a 50:50 chance of being right than surely that is better than using nothing at all.

I despair sometimes, I really do.

So what's the odds of picking the right outcome by guessing @Bagpuss83

Wrong for all of mine - I got girl girl boy. Have boy, boy, girl!

It's bollocks.

How is it 'eerie' that it was right, OP? There are only two possibilities, boy or girl, so obviously it's going to be right 50% of the time anyway You might just as well base it on whether you had cereal or toast for breakfast on the day of conception. Just as likely to be 'eerily' right!

Wrong for me.

Just did it with my mum’s info. DB and I were born two years apart in the same month. Apparently he should have been a girl and I should have been a boy.

Told me I’d had two girls. I have two boys.

How would my husband's sperm know how old I am or what month it is? It was both right and wrong for me - it predicted a boy, but I have boy/girl twins 😆

Right for me but tbf it’s a 50/50 chance

Well according to that I gave birth to a boy.....not sure how to break the news to DD though.

Doesn’t go down in age low enough for me. I had mine at 17. Got both my grandkids spot on though.

Yesterday while in a lift at a hospital, a pregnant woman was told by a random old lady that she was 'definitely having a boy', and she knows this because of the way she was 'carrying the bump' and that 'she was never wrong'.
Said pregnant woman smiled at old lady, thanked her, and smiled at me. When old lady got out the lift, pregnant woman told me she was having a girl...
So yes, it's unscientific nonsense

Said first son was a girl but got twins right. So 50/50

1 right, 2 wrong...

“Yabu- it’s not always write, it’s not science.”

hmmmmmm the OP tells me things without telling me things 😆

@Bagpuss83 "A guess is just a guess - pure luck and randomness.

If using a tool, even if not a perfect one, gets you a 50:50 chance of being right than surely that is better than using nothing at all."

I don't understand. How is it better than using nothing at all if a guess gives you exactly the same chance of being right as the tool does?

The first, you have just guessed, which is purely arbitrary.

The other, you have used a tool to get you some way to the answer - albeit not all the way there. That's a better method than just guessing.

@Bagpuss83 "The other, you have used a tool to get you some way to the answer - albeit not all the way there. That's a better method than just guessing."

Ah. No it isn't.