I think the impact of this policy is way overblown.
School fees go up every year anyway. The impact of this tax, in most cases, will be comparable to the difference between taking a subject that has lots of trips as opposed to one that doesn’t - eg. my DC has opted for Geography A-level and the trip (which is more-or-less compulsory for that subject) is about £1,000, paid in instalments. If she was doing say, RS, there would be no such trip.
All 4 of ours went through independent schools in London - now only one left going into 6th firm, This school has said it will do all it can to find ways to not pass the VAT on to parents.
The ‘big name’ day schools such as Westminster, St Paul’s, CLGS, Godolphin and Latymer will sail on, unaffected by this change in VAT status.
Boarding schools I have no experience of, but I imagine they will be the same.
People will just pay the fees through a business or from offshore and avoid tax that way. Or they’ve paid fees ahead, or they don’t really care.
Many (most) are international families or families with the means to offset this kind of thing elsewhere.
I think the tax will impact the smaller, non-selective private schools in ‘middle England’ (if I can call it that). But even then, schools are not going to sit back and lose all their customers. They will find ways to offset the additional costs if families are pulling out in droves.
In some cases, sadly, it will be bursary programmes that will be hit hardest.
For instance, at the school DD went to, the basic fees rose from about £7k per term to £9.5k per term in the time she was there. As I said, fees rise year-on-year anyway and parents are well used to this. However, a distinct ethos at this school was its bursary programme, with around 25% of pupils receiving bursaries (around half of those being full bursaries). And these bursaries did not just cover fees. They cover everything in the school - trips, music / other tuition, uniform, you name it. A section of the school fees people were paying funded the bursary scheme and it worked well. 1500 children sat 11 plus for 120 places going into Year 7. The school wanted the must able pupils, regardless of background or income. GCSE results were / are around 95% 9-7. The school was far more diverse than your average suburban comp / ethnically, culturally and socio-economically. The school won national awards for improving social mobility It remains to be seen what will happen as a result if the VAT changes - will plans to expand the bursary programme be stalled? Will fees rise a lot or will the increase be negligible? Will the school make savings elsewhere - eg. not run the Saturday programmes they run for underprivileged children in the local London borough? Probably the school will just carry in as it is.