General Election Polling - completely off

[Rusty101]

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

The exit polls are historically much more telling than the opinion polls.

As mentioned by PP, it's routinely miles off with any area or constituency that has any specific localised nuance. Some of the projections for Scotland are just laughable. Labour picking up seats in the Borders when they took 9% of the vote in 2019? Err... no.

I agree

It's not so much that labour have won it, as the Tories have lost it. The right wing vote being split between tory and reform have handed it to labour. Labour don't need to do (and haven't done) that well. One thing that will reduce Labour's majority is low turnout because people think it's a done deal. The electoralcalculus figures seem too optimistic for Labour but I'd have thought they'll still manage 400 seats.
What's more concerning is what'll happen at the next election. An emboldened Farage unifying the hard right, while the moderate vote gets split between labour and lib dem could be a big problem - look at what's happening in France with Le Pen.

Farage blew it when he blamed the West for Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Traditional Tories won't vote for someone who believes that.

Ed Davey has not improved his parties vote share, at all, how does that translate into multiple seats??

Labour will win. But I think in many seats the votes will be extremely close. It will be an interesting night that's for sure.

We're in a very marginal seat, only a 1% majority in 2019, so the result is usually a surprise but the former Conservative MP seems to be distancing himself from the party now and focusing on local issues he claims to have resolved.

He's coming across as desperate and has been the subject of investigation into some of his claims. Interesting times Friday morning

Our constituency has always been a toss up between Con/LD, currently LD, and because of Brexit it was rather less close last time, certainly nothing like the recount that was once needed. Labour traditionally come very low down the list.

This time it’s occurred to me that more people voting Labour, plus some for Reform, may split the LD* vote if people aren’t thinking tactically, and allow the Tory (new unknown candidate) to slip in.

*let’s face it, the LDs aren’t exactly inspiring and I really don’t think Ed Davey’s shenanigans with bungee jumps etc. are helping. He’s pretty much bound to walk it in the next door constituency, though.

I don’t believe the polls either, I think the margins are likely to be narrower than predicted. I am in Scotland where there has been a real issue with postal votes not arriving on time - this is the traditional holiday period in Scotland before English schools break up and prices increase. So a lot of people in Scotland have been disenfranchised and that may well impact the result.

And this is the trouble. People seem to forget there are more than 2 parties. It's not a case of one or the other when there are Lib Den, Reform, Green and even independent candidates. If more people voted for the fringe parties instead of being in a perpetual loop of the same 2, as a country we could see proper change instead of the constant cycle we're in.

But the exit polls in 1992 indicated Labour victory. People must have told pollsters they were going to vote Labour. Voted Tory, then came out of the polling station and said they voted Labour!

What's more concerning is what'll happen at the next election. An emboldened Farage unifying the hard right, while the moderate vote gets split between labour and lib dem could be a big problem - look at what's happening in France with Le Pen.

Maybe Reform will do really badly and Farage won't be emboldened at all - I can only hope!

It wasn't a surprise to anyone who'd paid attention to the polls at the last GE. The Tories were ahead throughout the campaign. The polls also said that the Brexit vote would be very close, and it was.

The biggest surprise in recent years has been 2017. When the polls underestimated Labour.

I posted this on another thread, but according to what I've just read:

– All polls give Labour a big lead nationally, but diverge wildly on how many seats that will translate to. Pollsters agree on who is set to win in just 317 of the 631 constituencies in the country. (That's not 317 Labour wins, it's 317 predictable wins among all parties.)

– Margins are tight. More than 100 constituencies are predicted to be won on 35% of the vote or less. In 2019 that number was 3.

– There’s a time lag in the polls. Constituency-level polling takes weeks, so shifts in voting intention that have taken place in the last few days won’t show up yet.

I sometimes wonder if it is a ploy to ensure another Tory victory.

I know, I was being tongue-in-cheek about the idea of voting labour, when Kier is so hopelessly out of touch with half of the population. I would like to see the country move to a proportional system, but that’s very unlikely to happen whilst Labour or Conservative have majorities; it would harm both of them!

HRTFT but yes, we have a high profile Tory whose majority has been at least 15000 for the last 20 years so it's hard to believe the predictions that he'll be wiped out. Campaigning is always quite active here so I haven't noticed any difference, apart from the silence of the LDs who may have recognised that they are not in with a shot and quietly left Labour to it.

I remember 1992 - people were prematurely celebrating the end of the Thatcher era. I said I had a horrible feeling the Tories were going to get back in...
I don' t have that feeling now - the Tories are in for a pasting, the only question is how big. We're going to have a Labour majority.
The more interesting questions are:
Who will be the official opposition? it could just be the lib dems...
Is the labour party going to tear itself apart internally within a year or two? that seems quite possible.
Will the tories get wiped out to the extent that Farage/reform become the party of the right? Probably not, but it's not inconceivable.

But in a FPTP system voting for anyone other than the three main parties is pointless and ends up splitting the opposition vote to the incumbent In 2010 my constituency elected a Tory. The combined votes for the Lib Dem’s, Plaid and everyone else exceeded the Tory candidate’s majority over Labour. So more people voted against the Tory than for him.

Absolutely. And as we all know, he literally gets flown in every time he graces his constituency with his multimillionaire presence! 🙄

@SocoBateVira
And I think conservatives have been underestimated this year.

Labour will absolutely win overall. But I think conservatives will do much better than the polls suggest

Not for me.

Most middle class people I know are/were hardcore lifelong Labour supporters.

I think the polls are probably quite accurate - I predict Labour will be in the region of upwards 400 seats and Conservative around/upwards 100. I suspect the Reform predictions are off though, in the event I think the Conservative to Reform voters' bottle will crash and they'll go Conservative. Regardles, still a thumping margin for Labour!

I'm undecided, for the record.

Our projection is based on an 88% turnout 🤨 pigs might fly

Well, in just over 36 hours the poll that really matters will be out. Roll on 10pm tomorrow!🥂