General Election Polling - completely off

[Rusty101]

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

Polls have accurately predicted every election since 1992, and polling has become a lot more sophisticated since then. Even the Brexit result was predicted correctly. It would seem odd that every poll this time is far out enough to go from a massive labour lead to a hung parliament. They may be wrong but not to such a massive extent as is being suggested by some people here.
Although we all know that CCHQ are on this thread!

Partygate. I can't believe anyone actually believes this BS! A birthday cake is not a party folks - well not where we live anyway! 😂

Also, bear in mind that Labour are scared of voter complacency, so are really talking down the predictions of a landslide.

You’ve just jumped the shark.

Ah, you've blown your beams too quick mate. Nobody's this daft. Try and hold on a bit longer next time.

That's odd.

I'm middle class, as is my circle, and we're all incredibly pissed off with right wing politics and the disaster that is the Conservative party.

Same. I had tea with a friend who used to be a Tory voter today. She gave me a present - a Tory annihilation bingo card and we discussed the horrors of the last government for a couple of hours.

I think we're seeing a particularly large amount now because getting info on tactical voting is so much easier than it used to be.

Anyone thinking of voting Conservative should be asked to go and sit in a hospital A&E for hours watching the NHS struggling to cope; or go for a swim in a polluted river; or go look round a crumbling school building etc etc. Public services have been left to rot. That's the legacy of 14 years of Conservative rule. You really want more of that?

And Reform are not the answer. Farage can only destroy not create or build. His lies about Brexit prove that.

Reform have some brilliant propoganda.

they'll do much better than everyone thinks.

https://x.com/jamescranworth/status/1808247905859624973?s=46

Sadly you are right. A pity they don't understand that Farage lied about Brexit and is lying now. By thinking they are protesting against the Tories and Labour they are falling into the trap laid by the racist, bigotted and self-interested Trump-acolyte.

That’s because they’re intended to influence behaviour not report it.

Suspect there will be some tactical voting to keep reform out.

30 year ago I used to know a local Tory party chairman and he said that traditionally Labour voters didn’t bother to vote.

he knew. He’d door stepped them
and asked their intentions and tracked which houses did and didn’t turn out and he was right.

I can't fathom why people are voting for anybody who told us Liz Truss's budget would be brilliant.

Including this guy:

Yeah, but even more voting to get them
in.

Rayner is deputy, not (shadow) chancellor.

You should look at some polling predictions and you may be less confident... and if you are confidently Tory then you are clearly unaware of the vast damage that 14 years of Tory rule has inflicted on this country. 14 years of decline public services , the economy, the environment etc etc. Or do you just not care?

I can't see there being that much of it. The most obvious situation where that might arise would be in a Labour/Reform marginal, from people who'd prefer the Conservatives and aren't on the centrist/one nation wing. No doubt there'll be a few of those, but not a big group.

I’ll see you on Friday.

Absolutely, although we might have to wait a bit longer to assess it? I'd assume Reform will win some seats, but less clear how we'd tell then how much tactical voting played a part.

Someone may have already asked this, but given labour have withdrawn support from Kevin craig in the North Ipswich constitution surely winning this seat isn't even a possibility??

Eh? 30 years ago we were a few years away from a landslide Labour win.
Some buggers must have bothered to vote Labour.

Sorry my age is getting away with me, it was 40 years ago. Almost exactly as I had a motorbike and not a car.

It will be quite clear I think. Everyone that wanted Brexit, and knows they didn’t get it, will vote reform.

on top of that if you don’t want your kids questioning their sexuality, perverts in female changing rooms, and boat men, no one else offers a choice.

A lot will be shocked I think.