Falling birth rate v immigration UK

[TripBalzac]

I’m missing something obvious, probably, but why isn’t immigration the solution to the falling birth rate?

www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/30/the-baby-bust-how-britains-falling-birthrate-is-creating-alarm-in-the-economy

It's only a partial solution. Immigrants to countries with falling birth rates tend to immediately adopt the same trend and have fewer children. So you top up the workforce for a while which helps the economy - but then you keep growing the older population without increasing the younger one. So it is a necessary partial solution (unless you want to end up like Japan) but it still leaves the unavoidable problem of a massively increasing older population. So there has to be a compromise so that you don't just grow one end (the older end) of the population.

It is. But people don’t like it because it obviously creates cultural change. The more immigration you have the faster that change. But yes, in an economic sense immigration is obviously a good answer to the falling birth rate. Interestingly, immigrants tend to have more children than native born Brits, so immigration over time solves the birth rate issue too.

I don’t understand why a failing birth rate is a huge issue.

Or, we encourage couples to have children. I would have liked to start a family in my mid twenties but wasn’t able to due to finances. We’re going to stick to two/three children as we can’t afford anymore.

We would have loved a huge family. The dream would have been to have seven.

I don’t understand the math of having low earners immigrating to this country, they have children that you cannot possibly support on NWM.

Maybe lower tax for married couples with more than three children?

It's a bit of a pyramid scheme really as they'll all eventually get old too.

So do children

It partly is.

You miss the dependent years of childhood where they need support but don't pay taxes - though you'll likely retain most for old age dependency years as this country becomes their's as well - their fertility rate matches original populations very quickly. You get a slump not a cliff edge with aging population.

However everywhere but sub Saharan Africa is also facing population decline - it's a world wide thing so UK will gave to compete with other countries for people.

At same time young people born here may decide not being able to afford kids or houses means they may be better off elsewhere as well.

Also there may be a mismatch education and skill wise with imported young people vs home grown leaving.

But immigration can cause issues with lack of integration with native population not being happy with it and voting accordingly viewing it as their culture being eroded r tends to happen when there large amount of immigration rather then enhancing it as in past when numbers were smaller.

Also seems to be a pattern when demographics get like our the economy stagnates - and I think to date it's unclear if immigration impacts or effects that.

So do children

Yep. The whole economic system that relies on continued population growth is going to run out of road.

A falling birth rate is the best thing for this planet. Why is it a problem to be solved? It isn't.

I don’t understand why a failing birth rate is a huge issue.

Taxes - when you have 3 workers to one retiree it easier to pay for benefit medical care when it's 1 worker to 1 retire person it means high tax burden on working population.

There are ways round it increasing retirement ages -etc

TBH though most economies world wide are going to go through this at some point is probably just working out how to deal with it.

Well this depends on what you think a country is for. Is it an economic entity that exists to generate ever increasing GDP using interchangeable units of human capital. Or is it a home to a population with a shared history and culture.

If it's the former then infinity immigration from countries with exploding and unsustainable populations is definitely the answer. Vote Labour or Green to guarantee this. Vote Tory to get it anyway while they lie to your face about it.

Because racism.

There's also the ethical question, of the UK using immigration to fill our own gaps and buffer the aging population - ie, pulling in skilled workers from other countries which also have falling birth rates, and need their skilled workers too.

Not to mention richer countries than the UK wooing British skilled workers to emigrate to replenish their populations.

We should try to get our own house in order without hurting others'. We've been seen what happened there with the British Empire!

Population expansion is bad for the planet. We need fewer people especially with global warming meaning that larger areas of the planet will be unable to sustain life in future years. This is for the benefit of all living creatures. We are no more important than any other living creature.

Falling birthrates are a big problem because we need someone to pay for our retirement and do the work. It's only not a problem if we all die quickly after we turn 65.

You do realise that, for A LOT of the countries, our NMW is an absolute fortune?

You definitely can raise a family on it on some immigrants standards, by getting a house in a shitty neighbourhood that nobody here would touch, doing it up yourself, being completely nonplussed about siblings sharing bedrooms, having maybe one second hand work car, cooking from scratch as a default, only buying absolute essentials in thrift stores and restricting your entertainment to TV, religion and visiting your cousins.

The plus side is that you don't get killed/maimed/abducted/tortured, you are allowed to keep on working without having to pay racket, your kids actually have access to schools and GPs (as much as anyone here, but still way more than back home), your daughters don't end up being the local warlords brothel installments, your sons don't end up dying as a security to the same sum and you have a massive social standing in your home village for sending the leftover money - which can go a VERY long way there.

Source: working in schools with high ESL, both from children and parents.

It means replacement of the native population.

If the birth rate doesn’t increase then Gen Z will have nobody to pay for their pensions, there won’t be enough tax generated for public services etc.

Or tax payers have to pay much more. It could even affect younger millennials. We are living very long lives now but don’t have enough younger tax payers to fund it.

That's what it will mean eventually but it'll take a least a few decades. In the short and medium term unlimited immigration helps the GDP line go up which, I'm assured by our politicians, is the most important measure of health and happiness for any given population.

The native white British population is already on track to be a minority by 2050 when the ONS census data is extrapolated.

Multiculturalism creates its own problems, I say this as an immigrant.

We will always need young people to continue the human race, keep infrastructure working. However, the economy models are based on increasing population which is not sustainable. We need to learn to revalue labour-intensive and value-adding jobs like caring, teaching, policing, and less value on things that don't actually do anything like banking.

EAL, English as an Additional Language. Many immigrants, including children, already speak at least two ,and often understand more, languages before they start to learn English.

ESL promotes the Anglo centric view that speaking more that one language is unnecessary and possibly a tad unnatural once you know English!

Congratulations on your pedantry.

Now, to return to the point, please go left at the Alpha Centauri and park on the third planet from the Sun.

I wouldn’t have bothered, but since you claim to work, or have worked , at schools with a high level of EAL I thought it worth saying to recognise and value the multi lingual skills that EAL pupils and their families bring to schools, including yours.