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Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Falling birth rate v immigration UK

174 replies

TripBalzac · 01/07/2024 11:25

I’m missing something obvious, probably, but why isn’t immigration the solution to the falling birth rate?

OP posts:
MsGoodenough · 02/07/2024 17:40

There's an MC liberal viewpoint that caring about maintaining a national culture and identity is somehow veiled racism, and yet these same people will go on holiday around the world and love the different cultures they encounter. They'd be the first to complain if everywhere they went on their exotic holidays had lost all their culture and customs. Most people in the world identify strongly with their own culture and want it to continue. This doesn't make them racist.

TempestTost · 02/07/2024 17:43

SmileyHappyPeopleInTheSun · 02/07/2024 13:47

While yes, many claim that they won't have them because costs/housing etc etc I think many just don't see the benefits.

I do think there a lot of that.

However when they ask existing parents many say they'd have more if they could but fiances stop them - and that never really gets addressed the focus tends to land childless women who may well have actively chosen that.

We need to scream blue murder over our education systems

I do think this - schools seem to be less and less the social mobility engine they once were in society. Also they put a huge burden on parents - so much busy work masquerading as home work to tick boxes - when our kids struggled they often didn't struggle enough for help at school so that put it on us - we did way more support work than our parents even thought of doing.

There are some economists who have suggested that the social mobility of the first part of the 20th century was driven by historical circumstances more than anything. Education supported it, but the basic issue was lots of dead men, lots of people moving into cities from the countryside, and technological change.

If that's true, the reality may be that social mobility can't be expected to be as common in the future.

To me this is probably just reflective of reality anyway. There is no wold where everyone is a doctor or banker or even a nurse, and no one works serving tables or delivery driving. Social mobility isn't that meaningful if it just means that some other person is drafted into the less prestigious job.

OneTC · 02/07/2024 17:45

Which bits of British culture do people who place value in such things think are especially important to maintain, or are in danger of being forgotten?

Biggleslefae · 02/07/2024 17:57

brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr · 02/07/2024 10:15

When those children enter the workforce, their parents have contributed 4-5 taxpayers / NI payers. Children are an investment in the future not an instant revenue stream.

THIS!

ElatedShark · 02/07/2024 17:59

OP you know why.

Immigration is bring in people with the wrong skin tone.
Not my view but one I've heard alot but in less polite terms

applebot · 02/07/2024 18:07

OneTC · 02/07/2024 17:45

Which bits of British culture do people who place value in such things think are especially important to maintain, or are in danger of being forgotten?

The same as any other culture. Knowledge and love for music, arts, fashion, religion (or lack thereof), moral values, behavioural norms and etiquette, history, historic buildings and parks, for some also interest in royal family. Accents and language which change and can lost over time. These things naturally evolve over time but rapid population change can bring about more tensions and dissatisfaction amongst the native population - it's not exclusive to the UK.

Maybe that's the wrong answer and it should be: none are important, everyone's just racist.

LordPercyPercy · 02/07/2024 18:18

These things naturally evolve over time but rapid population change can bring about more tensions and dissatisfaction amongst the native population - it's not exclusive to the UK.

This is very true. There has been rapid demographic shift in many European countries and that has directly lead to both some of the results in the recent EU elections, and what is now happening in France.

Sweden is an interesting example of how the rapid demographic shift has had a large negative knock-on with gun crime statistics in some areas, for instance.

Tinkerbot · 02/07/2024 18:26

Sweden is an interesting example of how the rapid demographic shift has had a large negative knock-on with gun crime statistics in some areas, for instance.

WTF were their gov thinking of - incredible really.

Blic · 02/07/2024 18:28

OneTC · 02/07/2024 17:45

Which bits of British culture do people who place value in such things think are especially important to maintain, or are in danger of being forgotten?

Are you saying British culture has nothing at all worth preserving? In that case why not just hand ourselves over to Russia? Or perhaps Iran?

If you think that’s not a great idea it suggests British society is worth something.

Things I think are particularly important about our culture: respect for the rule of law, pluralism, respect for animals and the environment, literary and architectural heritage…

Blic · 02/07/2024 18:31

And there are less tangible things: the way of life in my village. Looking after the footpaths and church. Helping neighbours. Looking after livestock. Playing cricket. Meeting in the pub. Obviously that changes and evolves and now includes outsiders but no one wants to see it disappear overnight.

suburburban · 02/07/2024 18:39

We have had a lot of immigration since the 90s and it doesn't seem to be solving the problem so why do we need it to continue indefinitely

It is causing issues such as high housing demands and from a green perspective is it good to keep building houses plus all the extra resources needed such as water

Tinkerbot · 02/07/2024 18:40

I was on a train the other day going through middle England, previous train had been cancelled so lots of people not getting their planned seat, lots of shuffling of people and luggage, all seats full, mostly older people on hols. Everyone so polite and friendly, apologies, no arguing, not a single raised voice, everyone talking in what I used to think of as railway voices (ie not loud enough to intrude on surrounding passengers) which isn't the case always now, some jokes and chat. V British.

perfumasour · 02/07/2024 18:53

dropoutin · 02/07/2024 17:30

The thing is, we don't 'need' a larger population in the same way we need oxygen and water.
It's only because our economic system is a pyramid scheme. Needing an increasing amount of young, working age people to fund old people.

Not exactly. The reasons we need solutions like immigration is just to maintain the SAME amount of young, working age people funding old people - that is, to maintain the same ration between productive workforce and non-productive retirees (and children).

Without immigration, that ratio collapses due to the twin factors of aging population and falling birthrate. And as that happens it becomes impossible to maintain the levels of pension, aged care and state funded healthcare that we are used to and take for granted.

That's exactly what I said. No contradiction.

Ratios are maintained by the underlying numbers. Because there's currently a massive non-productive workforce, the number of working people has to increase.
Who will look after these working people when they themselves become unproductive?

I never said that our current levels of pension, state healthcare etc have to be maintained. That's part of what I called our economic/financial setup. If it can't be maintained it'll have to be changed and actually, it's already happening . It's not a level of need like needing oxygen to breathe!

There are so many ways this can be radically re-thought.
Remove the triple lock on pensions.
Instead of the aged in 'care homes' (which are needed for serious cases) it could be the norm for people to work PT and do elder care. Or maybe, build actual housing and communities suited for elderly people.
State healthcare - other European countries and even the Scandinavian utopia Sweden require payments towards things like medical appointments.
Yet whenever ANY talk of payment is mentioned it's shouted down as 'omg American insurance'

People are too stupid to realise that our healthcare is already becoming like the latter by stealth. NHS waiting lists are so long that those who can afford it go private, most major employers (and In fact, a lot of the piddly little startups I worked for) offer health insurance as a benefit.

Londonrach1 · 14/10/2024 07:53

Money. Took us 20 years to escape the rent trap

since1986 · 14/10/2024 08:11

scatterolight · 01/07/2024 12:10

That's what it will mean eventually but it'll take a least a few decades. In the short and medium term unlimited immigration helps the GDP line go up which, I'm assured by our politicians, is the most important measure of health and happiness for any given population.

If you think the riots were bad this year, give it 10 more when the native population feel even more pressured.

The government also need to figure out an incentive to increase the birthrate of the population quite rapidly. Otherwise we're going to be fucked at all job skill levels in industry too.

One thing that increases the birthrate and skills in industry is national service/conscription/war. The conservatives were headed generally in that direction, and as much as I hate them, they weren't that wrong with that. Just went about it the wrong way.

SallyWD · 14/10/2024 08:24

A lot of people won't be happy with this solution as it means more brown people. You only have to spend 5 minutes on social media to see the wave of racism that's sweeping through the country.
I personally am fine with it. We've contributed mixed race children to the country, ourselves.

Suddenfeelingofsadness · 14/10/2024 08:31

As another poster said, many immigrants I work with do not think living on NMW is as difficult as white British people do. It allows you to eat, sleep somewhere warm and maybe travel around the country to see relatives. Are you taking all six of your children to Centre Parcs or soft play every wet afternoon on that money, no, but you can be happy enough, and safe.

GrouachMacbeth · 14/10/2024 08:36

Immigration as opposed to asylum and refugees is controllable by government. Unless labour have abolished the higher income requirement for a hosting UK resident it will deter many.
Equally the arrangement the last government made with India to allow preferential migration could be adopted to other countries and to encourage skilled workers, particularly those who may have a British or commonwealth heritage.

DrowningInChaos · 14/10/2024 09:01

FluentRubyDog · 01/07/2024 12:00

You do realise that, for A LOT of the countries, our NMW is an absolute fortune?

You definitely can raise a family on it on some immigrants standards, by getting a house in a shitty neighbourhood that nobody here would touch, doing it up yourself, being completely nonplussed about siblings sharing bedrooms, having maybe one second hand work car, cooking from scratch as a default, only buying absolute essentials in thrift stores and restricting your entertainment to TV, religion and visiting your cousins.

The plus side is that you don't get killed/maimed/abducted/tortured, you are allowed to keep on working without having to pay racket, your kids actually have access to schools and GPs (as much as anyone here, but still way more than back home), your daughters don't end up being the local warlords brothel installments, your sons don't end up dying as a security to the same sum and you have a massive social standing in your home village for sending the leftover money - which can go a VERY long way there.

Source: working in schools with high ESL, both from children and parents.

You do realise that most immigrants to the UK are not refugees? I find your post pretty offensive though I don't think that is your intention. Please think before you say stuff like this and then make it sound credible by citing personal experience. Immigrants are neither a group to be hated nor to be pitied. No wonder there is so much racism in the uk if people think all immigrants have come from desperate situations and are happy to live in squalid conditions here. A lot of immigrants come to the UK for the same reasons that white people emigrate: opportunities in the particular job sector they are interested in, studying, marriage, new experiences of a different place and culture, etc. Many immigrants that come here would live a more privileged life back home but they stay because they like it for cultural reasons rather than economic ones or because their life is in danger.

The reason why i say attitudes like tours increase xenophobia is because:

  1. You haven't said it but it is implied in your post that because most immigrants (in your opinion) are so underprivileged they will heavily depend on state handouts and will be a drain on native tax payers. In actual reality immigration is a net benefit to the economy.
  1. You make immigrants sound desperate and inferior
  1. You are making it sound as if the countries that immigrants come from don't provide the basics like health and education.
  1. Some people do escape desperate conditions but they are by far not the majority. I think if people realised how few refugees and asylum seekers there actually are they would not consider them such a big threat but would have more compassion for them. You make it sound like most immigrants are refugees and asylum seekers and that is just not true.
Frowningprovidence · 14/10/2024 09:09

I am actually a pro immigration person but I do think that there are cultural issues with relying on immigrants to replace all the people not being born and assuming they will keep society running and pay pensions they way you like it. The current stats look like we need 1 immigrant for each person born here.

immigrants are less likely to be loyal to the existing culture or the older generation. It's not thier Dad or Gran affected by thier voting choices.

For instance, if your culture is one that is big on multi generational living, you might vote for things that support this over nursing homes or care at home. Which is fine but our current culture isn't like that and it could mean all those childless future old people having fewer options as its just not on the radar of the now biggest group of voters. I dont mean they would be cruel, but just a different mindset.

Or with the state pension we have this social contract. I saw my parents support thier parents, now it's my turn, then my kids. I feel if you turn up aged 30, you hear 'there won't be a state pension' when you retire, or you aren't even intending to retire here at all as you have links to other places, what's the incentive to keep a decent pension going when you vote.

Our current culture is quite based on mothers working with mat leave to support that. This could easily be changed if the majority felt mothers should be home.

So immigration is fine but you can't really expect a population of immigrants to keep the existing culture or values and it really only takes small bits of the electorate to swing elections.

EasternStandard · 14/10/2024 09:16

suburburban · 02/07/2024 18:39

We have had a lot of immigration since the 90s and it doesn't seem to be solving the problem so why do we need it to continue indefinitely

It is causing issues such as high housing demands and from a green perspective is it good to keep building houses plus all the extra resources needed such as water

Agree, plus it seems to be a Ponzi scheme where higher and higher numbers are needed to prop it up

User37482 · 14/10/2024 09:23

I think we need to be better at wealth generation tbh. Smaller numbers, higher skilled migrants (don’t give a shit where they are from). Things are changing, I think AI will bring a new Industrial Revolution but in the middle classes not the working classes and I don’t think we are really prepared for it.

JasmineTea11 · 14/10/2024 10:04

NotAllowed · 01/07/2024 12:01

It means replacement of the native population.

I'd love to hear your definition of 'native' OP. My grandparents were German, and Irish. My parents were born here, so their native right?
What about someone with parents from Iran / Pakistan? Are they native if they're born here?

JHound · 14/10/2024 10:23

TripBalzac · 01/07/2024 11:25

I’m missing something obvious, probably, but why isn’t immigration the solution to the falling birth rate?

Because a lot of people don’t like changing demographics (I am not one who cares).

I do find some of the non race / culture related anti-immigrant arguments can also be made against a push to increase birth rates though (pressures on social services and housing.)

JHound · 14/10/2024 10:25

brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr · 02/07/2024 08:17

I struggle to understand what people mean in here when they talk about “ethnic Brits” or “indigenous Brits”.

Was there a magic date where all the various arrivals over centuries became “indigenous” or is it simply shorthand for “white people” ?

They mean “white people”.

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