To be absolutely looking forward to this Tory wipeout

[Viviennemary]

It isn't just me I'm sure but I am totally gleeful at this anticipated annihilation of the Tory party. I did vote Tory last time. But absolutely can't wait to see them routed. They've been awful. How could they have Liz Truss happen. She should have been chucked out the party.

Not having a crystal ball I don't know, SocoBateVira, but the mechanism exists for it to happen and I'm past the point where anything surprises me

I disagree about Brexit, I thought that it would be very close and I wasn't surprised when leave won. And many of my circle felt the same.

I also thought that there was a good chance that Trump might win in 2016. Maybe I should start betting on elections...

Parties do have form for eating their own leaders.

Look at David Cameron - his own party somehow forced him to have the brexit referendum, which Cameron himself didn't want and asked the people to vote remain. So then he went when that all fucked up.

Bojo was PM and his own party ousted him, even though Truss succeeded him, Rishi was one of the main backstabbers.

Blair was very successful winning 3 elections and still had to resign and make way for Brown, who won none.

This is how I feel

I am a bit nervous about a massive majority, as I think a strong opposition is good for democracy, and scrutiny of laws.

This

Whichever party forms government, in any general election, it's very worrying for democracy if there's no healthy opposition.

I'm still undecided on who to vote for. I'm looking at each candidate on a local constituency basis and trying to work out who would be the best local constituency MP.

That's just whataboutery.

For me, it's the foundation for everything. If you can't be honest about the material reality of sex then how can you be trusted on anything? If you are so easily captured by gender identity ideology, afraid to stand up to the bullying trans lobby, afraid to wholeheartedly and unequivocally endorse Cass, what hope is there for you on anything else?

Cameron isn't applicable. He fumbled the chance for a majority in one election and barely scraped the second.

Truss never won a GE. She isn't applicable either.

Blair didn't have to resign. He went very much on his own terms, having won a substantial majority in 05 despite the controversial Iraq war. It wasn't the party who forced it at all.

Johnson could be, if Starmer gets unpopular enough with the general public. But the comparison here was with the party membership, which is different.

I'm inclined to agree with you@GCAcademic!

I kind of see your point too! Would feel bad for those constituents who didn't vote for him though.

Sorry, has the election happened? Polls notoriously unreliable.

Starmer got his degree at a northern university (Leeds?), it was only his post-grad legal qualfication that he did at Oxford.

And, to quote a friend who was at the same college, "It was only St Edmund Hall", so not a massively prestigious one.

People need to decide what matters

on MN people are outraged by:
knife crime
youth crime
social services making mistakes
youths hanging around the streets
nhs waiting lists
trying to see a gp
EHCP/SEN provision
Mental health support/ CAMHS availability
support for struggling parents
Education

the Tory coalition CUT all the services budgets that addressed these - youth service, social services, the police, NHS, schools and local authorities AND they are still cutting!

if you want these things you have to address the cuts and increase budgets- you may have to pay for it.

taxes are high under this Government plus we have the COL crisis - I’d rather pay more in tax to address the need for improvement than more on my heating/food - under this Gov my bills have doubled! With nowt to show for it

My town has a Tory MP, but I haven’t seen a single Tory placard in my town since the GE was announced (although I have seen a few in the countryside). My town appears to be populated entirely by Lib Dem supporters, whose bright orange placards are everywhere.

However, I know that thousands of people here will still vote Tory. They’re just keeping quiet about it.

If Labour (and Lib Dem) supporters get complacent and think the result is in the bag, they might not all bother to vote. If so, there could be some shock results on July 5th.

I'm still undecided on who to vote for. I'm looking at each candidate on a local constituency basis and trying to work out who would be the best local constituency MP

Since the MPs are who we're voting for that's actually a very sensible thing to do, @Againname, but you'll never overturn the issue that some seem to think they're voting for who'll be PM - even those who don't live in their constituencies

My prediction. Labour will win, Starmer will last about a year before the party is taken over by those to further to the left. The country will be even more tits up than it is now and we will have the equivalent to the poll tax riots when council tax (or its replacement) doubles. If we’re lucky at the next election the Tory’s will get in but I fear we will swing to the right like the rest of Europe and it will be Farage and co.

I suppose that's true but I think Reform are going to affect results this time.

I had a look out of interest at predicted polls for my constituency. Usually a fairly safe Tory seat but it looks like, from the vote share polling, that Reform will get Labour in here.

But of course you're right polls aren't always accurate and things can change. Also Reform don't seem massively popular here, whereas they are very popular where a friend lives but her constituency is predicted to stay Tory. Then again she lives in a very very safe rural Tory seat.

ETA. When I say Reform don't seem massively popular in my area, there's no posters in windows and nobody I talk to locally seems keen on them. But I suppose there must be some 'Shy Reform' voters, as the polls show they're taking enough support from the Tories for a Labour win here. My friend's constituency, that's predicted to stay Blue, has lots of Reform posters in windows according to her. It's not a 'Shy Tory area, it's an extremely safe Tory seat, but I assume the Tory voters there are just less enthusiastic but will still vote Tory.

Windrush only deported 164 people. Only 850 people were detained wrongly - for immigrants as a group these are statistically insignificant figures. Yes, it's tragic but it doesn't change the immigration policies in this country - it was mismanagement of the deportation. You cannot conflate mistakes made that were rectified with our general policy on allowing immigration and how we integrate them.

Regarding the US and Germany - the exact point I'm making is these are not countries where immigration is easy even for skilled jobs that desperately need them. And if they are brought in, they live segregated lives or jobs much lesser than their qualifications. In fact in no other country is it as easy to get skilled labour in, and give them the chance to build their own life as part of wider society.

And please on the EU 'leaving' scheme - the EU 'othered' anyone not fortunate enough to have a European passport. I didn't support Brexit but always thought it deeply unfair that before then my Bulgarian friend could bring her mother over just on a Bulgarian passport - her mother didn't even need to prove she spoke English or had a job. And I had to work 10 years and jump through every hoop to even have the right to live here indefinitely, despite us doing the exact same job and paying the same taxes. All because I didn't have an EU passport. Then when I became a citizen and my mum was all alone back home and had dementia - I couldn't even bring her over here despite being a citizen and able to afford care, because she wasn't European and naturalised non EU citizens can't bring family over. So all Brexit did was make all immigrants, EU and non EU equal. Nothing is more unfair than one immigrant group have more legal rights than another for doing the same jobs. Nowhere else in the world has this but the EU.

Not sure if you are actually a 1st generation immigrant or not - but you should understand what matters to those who make the first step to leave their homes and start afresh. It's a pity that instead of asking me what would matter and trying to learn different perspectives - the minute I didn't fit your narrative of immigration, you shut it down. Like most left wing voters I know.

Not true.

The final polls, from just a couple of days before have been very accurate in recent years.

We all 100% know Labour is going to win.
The time for a change in Govenment drum is banging loud.
Even as someone who always voted Tory, I know we Need to lose.
The Conservatives have lost their way.
People have lost their trust.
There is no natural leader in any party and so let's give people what way want and watch the games.
Wait till the @@@@# hits the fan and nothing changes, then people will see.
After all the Tory party don't rule France or Germany and they are having the same problems....

My main concern about the landslide narrative is that people will think it’s a done deal and not turn up and vote! So remember to do that

I think public sector experience is beneficial in an MP. They'll have more idea about how to improve the services that most people rely on than someone who's managed a hedge fund or been a journalist.

And god knows, those services are crying out for improvement.

The methodology in polling was overhauled in 2019 to address long running problems. It’s now deemed very accurate.

I remember there were actually Remain supporters who voted Leave because they thought a big Remain majority would make the EU complacent. That went well.

If you know you want the next government to be Labour not Tory, turn out and vote accordingly. Don’t stay at home because you don’t want a Labour landslide. Don’t underestimate the impact of the shy Tories.

Have recent governments with small majorities or no majority resulted in demonstrably better legislation? I don't think so.

Our parliamentary system doesn't work like that. All you get is more political horse trading that serves vested interests of small groups (such as fringe political parties or interest groups within larger parties such as the DUP and ERG respectively).

I just see this argument as a way to justify voting Tory in the face of all the evidence that they are a bunch of useless grasping chancers who hate large parts of our society and need a well-deserved time out in the political wilderness.

If Labour (and Lib Dem) supporters get complacent and think the result is in the bag, they might not all bother to vote. If so, there could be some shock results on July 5th

A very valid point, @Cattenberg , especially when added to the issue that many likely to vote Labour are said to be less likely to vote at all

Some interesting stuff here: https://post.parliament.uk/election-turnout-why-do-some-people-not-vote/