I’m not so sure. The one thing that seems obvious to me is that for every vote that the Tories chase on the far right, they drop another couple to the centrist or moderate voters that are not impressed by xenophobic and populist policies. And that’s exactly why we’re here now.
Anecdotally, my parents (80s) are both die hard Thatcherite tories, mum is more centrist and appalled by the direction, voting green probably this time. Dad is ex city trader, pragmatist and sees Trump for the fraud he is, he’s not voting reform either as he sees Farage as a populist, lazy grifter, which is what of course he is. He probably won’t vote.