It's a private school one.....

[Noangelbuthavingfun]

Many threads on MN ... I want to know this: why haven't Labour given any info on their modelling of what will likely happen and the different scenarios that could play out when they impose VAT? It matters - because if they get thus wrong ... and a shed load of kids leave private because their families have scrimped to send them there ... the state sector in some councils will quickly be overwhelmed with kids needing state places that does not exist....which could be a lose lose for everyone! You don't build a new school and resource it in a month.... these things take years . I feel for all kids as they will all lose out if this happens and labour having got contingency in place.
How would you feel if your child is in a good state school , perhaps they get some SEND support...and suddenly there is an influx of private kids as they need the spaces. Class sizes go up to 40, all SEND provision gets cut as not enough funds, extra curricular gets cut and teachers are even more stressed, so the vicious circle if teacher shortages now intensifies....the spiral continues for years to come. Who has won?? No one ....
What are your thoughts on this ?
I don't disagree with the principle that private is a luxury and probably should pay VAT... what I disagree with is the notion you can just implement something that will fundamentally shift things on a seismic way in one big bang. No thought whatsoever. Tell me if you agree or have a different view and why ?

Your post is completely hyberbolic. Only 7% of UK children are in private education so class sizes are not going to go up by 33% from 30 to 40. Even if every single privately educated children left state schools and even if every state school was currently full of classes of 30 the class sizes would only go up to 32 and some to 33. But the reality is all privately educated children won’t be pulled out of their schools, many families privately educating will be able to afford the VAT increase, so you are only talking maybe one extra child per class of 30. And the other reality is every single state school is not full, children who are pulled out of private education won’t be put into schools where the classes are already 30, they will be sent to the nearest available school with a place. Many schools are undersubscribed and so it’s will be more likely a class somewhere goes from 26 to 27 because a child who was previously in private education has been placed in an under subscribed school.

The are lots of really excellent state schools out there would be my answer.

If your child has an EHCP they won't be affected anyway.

As it is in the future, no one knows and it is simply predictions.

What we do know is that the numbers starting private schools this September is 3% lower than last year. If the VAT policy is implemented then it would be fair to say that the numbers starting in September 2025 would lower again and so on again in September 2026.

Interestingly if the number of private schools pupils dropped by about 15% then the introduction of VAT on fees will cost more than it raises and therefore a net loss to all taxpayers.

In a world where state schools are currently so stretched that they cannot buy glue sticks and are cutting provision because they can't afford to pay for subject teachers that 'little red dot' represents quite a bit of difference ringfenced for education.

This. Thank you for some realism around this issue.

there will be some movement but the bigger change will be the number of those not starting at all - so the next few years will see the most turbulence - state schools not being ready for the higher numbers particularly in terms of SEN requirements / funding

Keeping them in doesn't address things either, unfortunately, as both you and the poster you're responding to found out.

And in any event, it's not a moral obligation for anyone (let alone children) to continue to suffer daily criminal abuse for some sort of imagined greater good.

And so the money that would have been spent on private education, instead can be put towards tuition for grammar or a house in the more expensive school catchments. It’s the poorer families without those choices who will come off worse. If you think education in the UK is simply a two tier private vs state situation, you’re v naive. The shocking thing is the disparity in state schools which were all paying for.

It would make no difference as in many areas catchment isn't the priority.

The girl who bullied my daughter was expelled and 2 more were put on last warnings at her Private School.
Friends DC who are at State are still dealing with their bullies on a daily basis as State schools
It varies from school to school - you can't say bullying is better/worse at State or Private

They will never know whether the drop was due to VAT or other factors such as the cost of living. Also birth rates are dropping.

Irrelevant - in some areas catchment us everything and even if not you still need to live near the school.

Sending ex-private school pupils to schools with spaces would be an interesting social experiment... the only schools with spaces are the worst performing schools. But maybe that would be a good thing? It could help to turn the school around.

But honestly... I don't think the VAT thing will happen.

@1dayatatime ahhh, I was waiting for the 'politics of envy' line to come. Didn't take long. You say envy, I say fairness. It's clear what side of the political spectrum you are on by your use of that phrase, so we aren't going to agree on much.

And the fact that you seem to think there's a great number of people with private healthcare shows what kind of privileged bubble you live in

Getting so annoyed with Conservative HQ flooding Mumsnet with this issue to try and sway votes .

I do try not to get into the whole "sneering at private schools" thing. But could I respectfully suggest that every time anyone suggests that their child would be automatically be bullied/wouldn't learn/whatever at state school that is as much of a "sneer" as any boater wearing Tarquin comment. Both equally stereotypical and both only true in a minute minority of cases.

@Beenquee

And so the money that would have been spent on private education, instead can be put towards tuition for grammar or a house in the more expensive school catchments. It’s the poorer families without those choices who will come off worse. If you think education in the UK is simply a two tier private vs state situation, you’re v naive.

There are no grammar schools in Scotland and those who can afford private schools already live in the affluent catchment areas. Poor families don't access private education.

So no difference there.

The point of the policy is not to raise money. They haven't done the modelling because they don't care.

The numbers leaving private schools won't have a significant impact on state schools in general. A journey to school of 45 minutes for a primary child and 75 minutes for y7+ is considered reasonable and there will be an undersubscribed state comprehensive within this radius for the vast majority of those leaving private schools.

The point of the policy is the same as the point of the Rwanda deportations/anti-small-boats policies of the Tories. It doesn't matter if the policy costs millions to implement and doesn’t achieve its stated aims. Having the policy provides a scapgoat for the party faithful to unite against amd attract sympathetic waverers. It exists to win votes, not to have any kind of positive impact on the country.

I would be fully supportive of this actually

I wonder if a single person has been persuaded.

I doubt it.

As ever on these threads we have Schrodinger's private school parents who simultaneously can't afford to pay the VAT but can afford to drive up house prices around the good schools. There will be handful of parents who pull out and move to state but most will continue.

Alton School has never claimed that it was closing due to VAT, but due to falling rolls. When inspected in January 2022 it had 365 pupils, and the roll has fallen since then. Of a current pupil roll of, say, 320, around 15 would be leaving anyway at the end of the sixth form and around 40 would be leaving anyway after GCSEs to take A levels elsewhere.

The vast majority will simply go to other private schools, and if the school is reasonably responsible it has been in discussion for some time with local private schools with a view to minimising disruption by, for example, transferring staff who can continue to teach the relevant exam syllabuses where necessary.

What is of interest is what has caused those falling school rolls. Could it be anything to do with financial pressures caused by tax rises, mortgage rises, fuel price rises? Who was in power when all that was happening?

There are not many grammars. Interesting though that all private school pupils have either SEN or they are going to be able to take all the grammar places. Where I live there are no catchment areas. Unless your child is year five now or younger buying a house in a "catchment" area won't work. You will just be offered a space in the nearest undersubscribed school.

The disparity in schools is mainly down to the areas they are in and the parents of the students. I don't think that is particularly "shocking".

OP, given you concerns about inequality on this issue, how many threads have you started about the fact the current child poverty figures are the worst they have been for decades?