The UK will be fine.
I expect to see the UK economy continue to outgrow the EU over the coming decades, overtaking Germany in the late 2030s or early 2040s to become Europe’s number one economy. This should heal the political divide and usher in the restoration of mature political discourse.
I am far more concerned about the future of the EU without the UK’s moderating influence.
We already saw the first cracks appear immediately after Brexit, when faced with the two great crises of the twenty-first century; Covid 19 and Ukraine - the EU behaved shamefully. One possible scenario I envisage is the complete collapse of the EU within 15 years.
For continental Europe is now set on an glide path which will see more nations embracing rightwing politics as the Union’s cohesion slowly ablates under the insurmountable pressure from globalist immigration policies which are incompatible with western culture.
Civil unrest will proliferate and unless the Commission makes major reforms, more nations will follow the UK out, first as a trickle which will build to a runaway chain reaction of <insert name>exits.
Tens of thousands of ex-eurocrats will ultimately be left pensionless as departing members refuse to pay their divorce bills and there will be zero appetite among the public to reward the failed technocrats who caused the crisis.
This will precipitate a Euro currency crash and the unfinished business of the Euro sovereign debt crisis will flush-through the banking system first to go under will be the French and Italian banks with high euro debt exposure.
The newly-liberated central banks will then be forced to re-adopt Europe’s twentieth century fiat currencies.
As ex-members liberate their sovereignty and restore democratic accountability people will begin asking tough questions such as: ‘Where did our money go?’ Which will all amplify the EU’s unresolvable contradictions as the arrogance, maladministration and corruption of its leaders is ultimately exposed.
In the final analysis the EEC will be remembered favourably, Brexit will be seen as fortuitous and timely but future historians will forever associate the EU with corruption and decline in a stark reminder of the historical truism that every time throughout history, whenever someone tries to unify Europe, it always ends in a bloody mess.
Hopefully I’m wrong, but this scenario is certainly not outside the realms of possibility.