To finally be looking forward to a GE?

[Cadela]

The past election/PM changes have been horrendous. The visceral disappointment was awful each time.

I can’t wait to actually celebrate this year. I know, I know, Labour are going to set fire to the economy and tax everyone £3mil each and it’ll cost you 4 trillion a month to send you kid to private school, and all women will perish immediately because only Tories know what a woman is

But finally! It’s been a long fucking time coming.

I asked that @JessS1990 No answer forthcoming.

The Conservatives nearly won

We seem to be on day 2 of denial of the state the Tory party is in, how long will this stage of grief last?

Totally agree. Well I've got the golden ticket so screw everyone else who I sailed in the boat with. All the other SEN STATE MUMS continue struggling. I won't consider you in my vote. I just don't want to pay more money.

What a stinking attitude.

I just don't understand people who can forget their roots. Forget the shoes they once walked in. Forget their non privileged peers who were unable to escape..I just could never do this.

Even worse from an NHS dr. You have TWO HUGE REASONS not to vote Tory. What they have done to the NHS (your job and health care provider for you and your children) and what they have done to STATE SCHOOL and children l/families with additional needs. You have first hand experience of what the tories have done to these 2 huge issues and you are still choosing to vote for them? Because you don't want to pay anymore money?

Woefully selfish.

Right, so you agree he's not Corbyn's man then as obviously expelling him from the party would suggest otherwise.

What evidence is there in the way that the party has changed and the messages that are being given out that he believes the same as Corbyn? Why is the left of the party constantly carping about him and calling for his removal? Why has Owen Jones, for example, left the party? Why have pretty much all Corbyn's allies been removed from the shadow cabinet and, for example, Yvette Cooper brought back? Why is Rachel Reeves, put in her post by KS, constantly talking about fiscal responsibility?

He's made some odd decisions if he just believes everything Corbyn does.

I'm the north east.

We have continuity of education here. So children who have begun their education in the triad, even if out of catchment, take priority over anyone moving into the area. Even if they live right next door to the school.

As soon as mine got their place at 4 I knew there would be no need to worry for the transfers.

The general consensus is its served the children well.

I think that this is about right. I am a lifelong Labour voter and I am sure will continue to be so but I have real concerns about their policies. The only thing that I am hoping will happen that I think there is a real possibility of us that a Labour government will start to overturn the decades of NHS underfunding.

In the last mainstream I taught in there were circa ~60 lessons going on at any one time. So who is policing the potentially 60 ADHD kids leaving class at once, when there are barely enough teachers to cover the lessons going on? And if the answer is that there isn't anyone then it can't happen, lest those 60 kids cause chaos around the school/in the loos/in the corridors. So it would cost money because you need a couple of staff to be in charge of all of those kids who can't be in class.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SePP_iofypE

Many are forecasting that the results show that Labour won’t get an overall majority. They are forecast to be a fair few seats short. The question is whether they’d go into coalition with the Lib Dems. This is the Sky News forecast.

That calculation was before the local elections this week. Many are now forecasting that Labour won’t get an overall majority.

I fear some don't understand the difference between projections based on the whole of Britain (i.e 100% turn out) voting in the pattern of the local elections and polls.

Oh, is there a new poll, please link. Thanks!

The local elections where Labour (and the Lib Dems and Greens) saw the biggest swings in seats where they were previously in 2nd place.

Even the home of the Army voted Labour.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SePP_iofypE

Thanks, but that is a projection not a poll. Very different beasts. @JessS1990 posted the latest polls, but you suggested there was a more up to date one?

Absolutely this.

Where I live there is no Grammar system and it is a lottery system for school places, they even got rid of sibling preference last year. My DS is in a 6th form where there has been 160 Oxbridge place offers over the last three years. It is wealthy in parts but certainly not everywhere, the streets aren’t paved with Gold and besides your postcode has no bearing on your ability to get a school place. When I visit relatives in London the conversations are a real contrast, the exceptional state 6th forms are all highly selective, much nervousness about getting in to them. The non selective system or at secondary age and the comparatively modest GCSE grade requirements for the 6th form appears to me a much better system.

The underfunding is noticeable with my youngest but she is doing very well at school so we are lucky. There is a falling birth rate here that is below the national average and the infant schools that my two went to are now facing closure as there aren’t enough children to fill these spaces. Consequently, in a few years time secondary schools won’t be oversubscribed.

I am not seeing any significant change in the most reason polls.

https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voting-intention-opinion-poll-scorecard/

Tories still about 20% behind.

I don't think it'll be a labour landslide either , which is why the conservatives are holding out till the bitter end.
Maybe more votes going to the lib Dems or greens too.

I’m not an electoral expert. I’m merely pointing out that some of those who are don’t necessarily think there’ll be a Labour majority.

Yes, our media and the experts they choose to platform are doing a great job of making the focus of this weekend 'It's not that great for Labour,' rather than 'Tories relegated to THIRD place!' Funny that, I can't think why they're doing it.

I think I have worked it out. Part of Rish!'s The PLAN is to introduce PR for the next GE.

If you do not trust in opinion polls, another way of checking what the likely outcome is, is to look at the bookmakers odds.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/overall-majority

I’m saying that some commentators are now saying, after the local elections, that Labour won’t necessarily get an overall majority. At the end of the day though, no one really knows. Local elections don’t necessarily translate into general election voting. There’s also variables such as weather/turnout etc which no one can really predict.

I’ve posted the polling/analysis I was referring to as have a several others!

My main point on this thread and why I voted YABU is because I personally see no cause for excitement. For those that bother to vote many are doing so for the least worse option which is a shitty situation to be in as a country. Starmers uncosted policies don’t fill me with any cause for optimism - the NHS will continue to be a shitshow and bankrupt councils won’t suddenly be awash with cash. There is no money to fund the radical change that is needed to put this country back on the right track.

For more than the past year, opinion polling and the swings in by-elections, together with local elections have all clearly shown that Labour will win a significant majority of the seats in a GE. Weather and other variables will not come into it, because it isn't that close.