This is from the executive summary attached to the webcast I shared above.
The total number of children and young people with SEND in Warwickshire’s state-funded schools is 15,575 (11,943 at SEN Support, 3,632 with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP)). This is 17.4% of the school population. The total number of children and young people within Warwickshire with an EHCP from birth to 25 is 5,898 (as at Jan 2024). This represents an increase of 37% over the last five years.
So it's EHCPs which have increased by 37% - meaning they would have been at approx 4300 in 2019.
This would seem like a positive thing to me, since there are way more pupils with SEN than pupils with SEN + EHCP. I would have thought that it's positive for all pupils with SEN to have an EHCP. Given the relative numbers of SEN and only a proportion of them having EHCP, it doesn't really make sense that the councillor is suggesting an increase in EHCPs represents an increase in the amount of SEN diagnoses.
However they do seem upset about the cost specifically.
I suppose then I'd want to ask is this even a relevant comparison to be making? Do more EHCPs = more spending, is it a direct relationship like that?
Anyway the next paragraph in the executive summary has some more numbers. Bolding is mine.
There has been increasing pressure on the High Needs Block driven by increasing numbers of children with EHC plans, higher costs per child across all settings, and increased numbers of children in specialist provision. At the end of October 2023, the forecast expenditure of High Needs Block funding (excluding place funding that goes directly to schools) was £95.3m. This is an £17.5m overspend against the allocated budget. As a result, the cumulative overspend at the end of 2023/24 is forecast at £32.5m.
I don't know what the High Needs Block is and this document doesn't really explain. I have to say that when I was listening earlier, it sounded like he was saying the overspend in the academic year 22/23 was £17.5m and the forecasted overspend by 23/24 will be £32.5m, which sounded like the overspend would double, not that he was adding the two years together. It was a bit misleading perhaps intended to show this idea that "it's not a bottomless pit".
Anyway I bolded because they claim that the increased spending is due to more EHCPs, but it's also increased due to higher costs which affect all children whether they have SEN or not, so don't single out SEN as though they are too expensive please. Or it's to do with specialised places (which I don't know figures, but I'm guessing this will be much more expensive than an EHCP, particularly residential places which I know are extremely expensive.)
If a child needs a residential school placement due to their SEN I think anybody would be hard pressed to argue that child does not need a diagnosis or support, even if you wanted to make that argument for some of the children who have an SEN diagnosis. It is also, weirdly, an institution - which he seems to think is the solution to all the budgeting problems (which makes no sense at all.)
Lastly with the 37% over 5 years - those 5 years go right back to pre-covid which surely has an effect here, and I'm out of date but when did it change from Statement to EHCP? Is it possible that some children under the old system were still being counted as not having EHCPs and they have now aged out of the school system, or was every child with a Statement moved over to EHCP when that came in?
This has some info about pupil demographic numbers too - they are saying that the primary school population peaked in 2019 and is now in decline due to demographic decline in this age group, whereas secondary school population is due to peak this year and will likely then stay stable for a few years before declining. Which surely suggests that over the last five years, the secondary school population (which will represent more of the EHCP numbers given that an ECHP is supposed to stay with you until the end of education) has been rising.