To think there shouldn't be measles outbreaks?

[fatandhappy47]

Surely we shouldn't be having an issue with measles?
Had an email from school (secondary) 'reminding' us to keep kids off with measles, which got me thinking

All my kids band my friends kids of the same age had their MMR (however my youngest did get measles before this)

So why is it an issue in secondary schools of all places? Are people just not vaccinating their kids?

Well, Russian roulette 1:6 chance of death

Measles: 1:5 chance of hospitalisation, 1;15 chance serious complications 1;1000 chance of death

MMR: 1:100 side effects such as D&V, rash, upper respiratory symptoms, 1;300 febrile convulsion; too rare to reliably quantify, death and certain other serious complications,

Now, which odds do you want your DC to pay with, now that you cannot rely on them not catching measles in UK?

@OdeToBarney i had the same thing during ivf. I was told I didn’t have immunity to rubella. I checked my vaccine record at my doctors and I had two MMR vaccinations. So two must have been standard. I was born late 80s too.

some people just don’t develop immunity to rubella.

they said I could still do ivf as a third vaccine probably wouldn’t work for me.

Thanks. I'm pretty sure I only had one as my mum kept everything, and there was only one vaccination record for the MMR. I have a booster booked this week at my GP! They were absolutely fine about doing it.

The MMR started as a one dose vaccine and the 2nd dose was added later. So some people won't be fully protected. I was born in the early 70s so haven't had any. I assume I've had single measles and a rubella vaccine as a teen. I remember my sister having actual mumps as a child but don't remember having it myself

The Russian roulette analogy is incorrect because the chance of having a serious adverse reaction to the vaccine is orders of magnitude smaller than the chance of having serious lifelong or lethal complications from measles. Simply put: measles is more dangerous than the measles vaccine.

Absolutely. Russian roulette my arse.

I agree that 'Russian Roulette' isn't a good fit but I'm not so sure about the orders of magnitude smaller bit

Yes, you're completely correct across large numbers of people that measles, for example, is more risky than vaccine side-effects.

But on an individual level any specific medical event/outcome has either a 0% chance of happening or a 100% chance of happening. When we talk about chances and probability it really only applies to broad populations, never to just one person. To just one person it's binary.... A particular outcome either will happen or it will not.

So you can scorn someone's risk assessment capabilities all day, no problem. But you can't insist that they, personally, have a 0.0001% chance of X event happening as it's just not how it works.

That isn't how probability works. The chance of an event (in this case an adverse vaccine rea tion or an adverse measles outcome) is known because it can be seen at a population level. The 100% figure is a reality only after the event. Beforehand the likelihood is as has been stated for every individual - it is no different from a roll of the dice.

My mum chose not have me vaccinated against lots of things due to a reaction my sister had.
As an adult I caught up on everything I should have had and seemingly was lucky to never get seriously ill with some of these things.
She was dead set against me vaccinating my children, I went against her advice and did what I being told by medical professionals

Were you replying to me? The Reply button is weird, it doesn't quote or tag anyone. You have to click the three dots in the top right hand of a comment then select Quote

I know how it works, but I wasn't just addressing you, @Dutch1e . I get irritated by how many people don't understand risk or probability.

Ok, no worries. I'm not quite sure how to reconcile hindsight with probability. They seem opposites.

Exactly. That's why homoeopathy has no side-effects - because it's just water.

I know a lot claim it's just better diagnosed but 3 people close to me with autistic children....does make me wonder.

I just despair at the lack of critical thinking ability in the general population...........

the pandemic acted as a massive
trigger for conspiracy theorists and their ilk. You only have to think back to some of the covid threads on here. There are some people out there who,
whilst they enjoy the luxury of herd
immunity thanks to their sensible
friends vaxxing their kids, would never vaccinate their own kids. Seriously illogical stuff.

Your not applying your theory correctly.....is this Trump theory

Experts are now more aware of the full spectrum of Autism so obviously more children are being diagnosed we are all somewhere on the spectrum it's if we have problems coping with life that it matters. We are also more aware of girls having autism spectrum disorder which was previously overlooked and diagnosing earlier in order to get the correct support.

@jannier no we're not all on the spectrum. Some people are on the autistic spectrum and others are not.

@MyopicBunny agreed, not everyone is autistic. But it wasn't that long ago that people believed autism primarily affected boys. Now we know that isn't true, and that it just manifests very differently in girls. That will absolutely have had an effect on the numbers.

I don't know what Trump theory is. All I'm really saying is that on an individual level we can't say definitively what will or won't happen to that person, we can only look at big data sets.

Do you feel the same way about playing the lottery? Maybe you just don't understand maths. There are course like functional maths or maths in context that would help you in your life.

Do you feel the same way about playing the lottery? Maybe you just don't understand maths. There are course like functional maths or maths in context that would help you in your life.

Yeah of course. Women and girls present a bit differently.

Gina Davies the lady who devised the attention autism scheme and bucket time would disagree

Donald Trump makes his own theories....
Statistics is about the chances of one event happening to one individual or act. Obviously unless it's 100% not going to happen someone will experience an event but your view is dont cross the road because to the person who gets hit it's 100% going to happen.