To think it's not a foregone conclusion that Labour will win the next election?

[flashbac]

I am seeing things here and there predicting Keir Starmer being our next prime minister etc, as if its already been decided.

I won't be voting for them under Keir that's for sure. Their stance on Gaza is the straw that broke the camel's back. I don't care if the Tories get in again. I am so disenfranchised I dont give a shit and at least with the Tories its "better the devil you know" and not Labour pretending they give a shit about people/human rights.

No, it’s not unfortunately.

It’s at least 6 months to an election- which is a ‚long walk‘ in politics. There are no guarantees either way.

People have short memories. The Tories where shot in 2019. However, Labour were even worse.

If people think they are still worse, then Tories could win.

Personally I don't think there will be an outright win, there will be a coalition of some sort.

I don't think it's a given. I will vote labour but I dislike Keir Starmer. I don't think he's a leader and I don't like the way he votes. I think the labour party would do much better with a different leader.

I honestly don’t know what will happen. I feel like some of the public have a touch of Stockholm syndrome with the tories. There’s such a disconnect between how people see them and what they actually do. My mother in law would die for Boris Johnson and truly believes he is a principled and decent man who has been unfairly slandered by left wing remoaners.

Among me and my friends/family 95% will vote for labour but I’m not under any illusions we represent the rest of the country.

Equally I don’t believe things will be dramatically better under labour as they still suffer from politician-itis and most of the country’s problems aren’t actually due to the tories, the tories merely profit from them and lie to us to do so.

Is that you Rishi?

Labour and Starmer have been such a massive disappointment- considering the mess the Tories have made, it SHOULD be easy for Labour to get in. But they seem to be tying themselves up in knots, making all kinds of messes, and are simply not a credible opposition at all. I am so angry at the state of Labour and I just cannot vote for them as things stand right now.

I think it's only fair that Labour get in next time. Give their buddies a chance at the golden handout well.

PS. Lighthearted. Although, probably factual.

What a load of drivel you speak,

No it's not. The Labour party's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory is legendary. Bloody heartbreaking.

I think they'll get in, it's just a case of size of majority

Two factors to look out for (I think) in next few months (whilst they decide when to call the GE)
a) Tories still think they can win, so lurch to the right, to avoid losing the far right vote. I thought this was a busted flush when the then Home Sec incited protests and only the far right went anywhere near the Cenotaph. I thought her sacking might be the end of that experiment. Now I'm not so sure
b) they accept they will lose, so will be doing their utmost to ensure the following Labour administration is single term only. By trying to retake the centre/right ground, and by leaving as many expensive time bombs for Labour that they can

I've been a labour voter most if my life but I agree with you.

As bad as things are currently, and they are pretty bad, it will be worse under the current leadership of labour and it's been like that for years.

I'm in Scotland so my recent voting strategy is to vote for whoever is most likely to keep out the SNP but I don't think I can vote Labour either.

Sadly, I do think Starmer could lose Labour this election.

I will be voting Labour even though I think he's an absolute dick - because the Tories are far, far worse.

Too many people I know seem to have taken against Starmer that they think the Tories would be better - everyone seems to have forgotten the pain of the last 13 years suddenly.

Given the latest row about Rosie Duffield being dropped from Labour's approved list of candidates for the next general election I think quite a few women, myself included, will be extremely wary about voting for such a party.
(Ex labour party member here.)

Also agree with PP that Starmer is not a good leader. I feel change is needed

I loathe the Tories. If they win with a tiny majority (only way I can imagine them winning) then I'll enjoy watching them attempt to hold together and enduring endless rebellions and having to deal with the traps they're currently setting for Labour themselves. They'd drag on in misery like John Major did. And the next election would give Labour a whacking great big majority.

If Labour wins, that's infinitely better than the Tories. Either way, things are looking up.

No, a Labour win is not a foregone conclusion. I think a Tory loss is as in this case it is certainly not better the devil you know.

Why would anyone vote Tory when they know how chaotic, incompetent and shit at running the country the Tories are?

Anything is possible given our right wing media, our stupid voting system and the weird way people will excuse the Tories for anything.

Who?

I think part of the problem is that politics has become so toxic, fewer people want to go into it (long hours, constant hate mail and threats, press reporting on your every mistake, everyone thinking you have your nose in the trough etc) and let's face it, you can make much more money elsewhere without all the hassle.

We need to calm it all down a bit to help talented people enter the field, I'm not that enthusiastic about Starmer but at least he seems decent and competent, unlike the entire load of Tories.

Starmer has done a pretty good job of walking a very difficult path. No matter what his stance on the gaza conflict, MSM would have torn him to shreds. He potentially will be the next PM and will have far more influence to change things in the ME because he hasn't pissed Netanyahu off by demanding the impossible. Joe Biden's softly softly approach seems to be bearing fruit so Starmer is on the money with what he's said.

I also love the irony that Starmer essentially said exactly the same as Sunak, but you're perfectly happy with a tory govt again. Can you explain that to me please @flashbac

What a gloomy thread. They’re 20 points or so ahead and have been for ages.

This is meant to be bigger than Blair’s lead.

Also there was a big wig on tv during the Truss mayhem. He was saying that a government that is in power during a financial crisis never get re elected at the next election. Think Major and Brown. He also had lots of other examples from UK and USA. Callaghan? Reagan were some other names.

I'm politically homeless to be honest. But I simply cannot understand how labour , and Lib Dem to an extent, are such terrible opposition that their win isn't a slam dunk.

Objectively, the facts are that in the last 13 years, under Tory rule

• Thousands of people needlessly died during the pandemic
• Thousands more have needlessly died as a result of missed treatment through the pandemic
• We had a prime minister given a police fine for breaking the law
• Liz Truss. Nuff said.
• Women's rights have been eroded
• Education has been a disaster, to the point where school buildings are literally falling down
• NHS waiting lists are horrendous
• Inflation and the economy are fucked (obv due to global reasons, not just their fuck ups)
• We've seen more strikes in the last year than we have in decades, so if you were a rail worker, NHS staff, teacher, you would be extremely unlikely to vote for them
• They left 3million people (myself included) stranded during the pandemic as part of the #excluded group.

Yet despite all of this (and more), labour are still absolutely shite. Kier hasn't just been given an open goal, the players aren't even on the pitch and he STILL can't score.

I genuinely don't know who I would vote for in the next election. It seems to be a toss up between utter shit, total bollocks pr absolute crap.

I predict it will end up being a labour/lib dem coalition

Nothing is a foregone conclusion as far as politics is concerned.

However notwithstanding any major changes in the political landscape over the next 6-10 months, I feel it is more likely than not that we'll see a labour govt next.

Unfortunately I don't think enough people care about anti-semitism or misogyny in the Labour party to make a dent.

Agree. There is usually a hidden Conservative population that appears for voting but not in the general discourse perhaps because the older population skews right? Any labour win will be narrower then predicated im sure.

I'm also not naive that they will fix anything to a great extent. The bar has fallen so low in the past decade or so that any marginal improvement will be massively lauded without any need to return to where we were then. I know this isn't down purely our politics but I fear that we have gotten used to things being shit as the new normal and expectations are lower now.

I have a similar feeling as pp. I'm voting Labour but I'm not very happy about it or them. I think there is a slight chance things will improve vs where we are. I just hope they improve things for the NHS, childcare and teachers, this would help so much with everything else imo. Interesting that so many of the proffessions being worst effected are female dominated. We seemingly have to be the ones to take up the slack in any crisis.