To think it's not a foregone conclusion that Labour will win the next election?

[flashbac]

I am seeing things here and there predicting Keir Starmer being our next prime minister etc, as if its already been decided.

I won't be voting for them under Keir that's for sure. Their stance on Gaza is the straw that broke the camel's back. I don't care if the Tories get in again. I am so disenfranchised I dont give a shit and at least with the Tories its "better the devil you know" and not Labour pretending they give a shit about people/human rights.

Yes. 20 points ahead on average. I'm sure it won't be that great a margin on polling day but the Tories are going to have their arses kicked. The polls haven't moved in a year. That is dire.

I agree with you, a lot of hard core labour supporters feel labour have done this due to the polls. But we all know the polls at this stage are really not going to translate at a ge. It’s far too early and it’s just a message the electorate give right now. The polls are not saying folks want labour, they are saying they don’t want Tory, an important nuance.

I think a lot of people are uncertain and unhappy about Tory. But when it comes down to it. How will they vote. Unless labour start to be much clearer on their policies, with Tory making the popular moves, there is no sure thing right now. None at all.

I agree, Labour need a Tony Blair-esque leader after Corbyn and Starmer.

Totally - and don't forget he did the rounds of the EU and asked for concessions to make remain more attractive - and they all told him to fuck off.

No woman should be voting Tory after what they have done to women's rights with their TRA agenda and the rape culture that is so prevalent in the party.

Cameron's return will bring back come centre-right Tories who were likely to stray. But I think Sunak will need economic conditions/outlook to improve dramatically to have any real hope. He's really just waiting and hoping for something to come along.

I agree. Rachel Reeves is also far too lightweight as a potential Chancellor of the Exchequer at a time when finances are THE most important issue! As we saw during covid, she hadn't a clue re the 3 million excluded and Labour could have gained 3 million voters if she'd actually bothered to research and understand the problems to enable her to articulate a proper opposition in the Commons, but no, she bluffed and blustered and clearly didn't understand WHY 3 million were excluded. She's not got any better since and was very underwhelming in her response to the Chancellor's statement last week!

As for Greens, no chance, they're insane in our area - they're openly wanting to ban all cars from the entire city centre (and wider central area), meaning people in one end of town wouldn't be able to drive to the hospital at the other side, without a 20 minute, 15 mile detour via a motorway!

I know all this.

But I don't think you can just say it's over - the reality is that an impaired relationship with Europe continues to do us harm. Inconvenient but we'll need to patch things up and move close to Europe eventually, whether that means rejoining or not.

Parties don't all have voters split down the middle. And there has been a pro-remain majority in polls since the referendum. Which is likely to continue to grow as younger people are more strongly pro-EU. It's a festering wound for sure, but I don't think the issue is going to go away.

'I think you have to be a slimeball, most of the time. To be chosen as a candidate. To progress anywhere.'

I'm sorry but I think we have to resist this attitude.

Why?

1. Getting people to give up on politics: 'They're all the same' 'None of them can be trusted' goes only one way - it leads to people disenfranchising themselves.

It's a con. It only helps those who benefit from ordinary people choosing to leave politics to other.

1. It subtly dehumanises a group of people: politicians .

Sure, it's easy to think, 'cry me a river,' about that. Politicians seem to have power - who cares if they get dehumanised? Well, I guess those who loved Jo Cox care. And all those politicians who are increasingly the target of violence and threats.

1. How weird (not) that this discourse of not trusting politicians is on the rise as the numbers of female and BAME politicians has increased.

Almost as if the inclusivity of political representation goes up and the devaluing of the role of politician goes down. Strange.

1. Oddly enough, a lot of political people really do go into politics because they want to make a - positive - difference.

And it's hard. Politics is where your aspirations meet reality. Deep change takes time & is hard work. Government is over a 5 year period. You have to compromise.

And you will never, ever be able to fulfill the personal wish-list of every individual voter - who may be sorely disappointed that you couldn't fulfil wish 25 on their list.

For every win, there will be 10 cherished ideals you, personally, could not fulfil.

And most politicians have very, very limited powers.

It's a very tough job.

But, no, they are not all slime balls.

And most do not deserve the abuse they really do get. Which is in the increase. And is dangerous.

The Conservatives in 2017 under Theresa May were 20 points ahead in the polls and did not win a majority. Lib Dems second in about 90 seats last time.

Perfectly possible for Labour to have the most seats but not a majority, and Lib Dems to gain seats via tactical voting.

I like that Rachel Reeves is so lightweight that Ken Clarke backs her over his own party!

Given the epic levels of economic fuck up in the last three years I really think it's unreasonable to criticize her like that. When she is in, then go for her record. If you don't like her, just say so.

I think identity politics might be the thing which holds them back - they are do do out of touch with what normal people think.

And while we know everything that's wrong with the Tories, there no widespread feeling that Labour could go a better job. Wales has had a Labour govt for years and it's not better here than in England. See also Scotland with a left wing government. It's all just as inept.

I think this thread alone proves how it’s not a sure thing by a long way, this board is very labour positive and even it is not sure in a meaningful majority. The next several months will be interesting in politics.

All the stats indicate a substantial victory. My money is riding on 100 plus.

Both Labour and Tories have been split on Europe for decades. Right back to Thatcher and Heseltine in the 80s. Brexit was inevitable and the run up was like watching a car accident about to happen in slow motion.

Arguments about re-joining would fester and cause both parties to remain split for decades to come.

It's not just the public who are split on the EU, it's MPs too. Each party has similar numbers of MPs pro and anti the EU.

No one wants it to dominate politics for another decade or two. Best just to accept it for what it is and for politicians to work hard to keep relationships with Europe as good as possible for mutual benefit. We can't waste more political time on Brexit/Rejoin when there's no realistic end game of agreement either within the population nor within the political parties.

I understand “better the devil you know”, but there comes a point when that devil is so
utterly awful that frankly, any other devil is guaranteed to be better.

that’s where we are

Rachel Reeves isn't by any means a "lightweight" - LSE, Oxford, the Bank Of England, just for starters.

No I don’t think it’s a given. Most of my circle have always voted conservative or Lib Dem. I swing between the two and have never voted labour. I would actually be open to it given the state of the conservatives at the moment, but they really haven’t done themselves any favours recently and I just can’t. I’ll probably end up voting Lib Dem as I can’t see how I can vote tories or labour at the moment. The tories have also just had a relatively clever budget for their usual voters.

I’m 99% sure that Labour will be the largest party. About 90% sure they’ll have enough to form a majority government.

The cutting NI is only going to work until it comes in and then most low and middle income people will realise it makes very little difference to them. Rishi’s going to have a promise vs reality issue on this.

You're right - and this thread is full of utter bollocks being spouted by people with no clue - i.e. the electorate.

The Tories have made loads of own goals financially, and she's just not stepped up to give any meaningful criticism/opposition other than weak soundbites. Whenever she speaks in Parliament, it's clear she's out of her depth.

You wouldn't let a road sweeper operate on a cancer patient "because he's not done the job before and not been given a chance" would you? She's been shadow chancellor for a couple of years now and has worked as shadow chief secretary to the treasury for longer so she's had ample chance to learn the ropes, but is still very weak in Parliament.

@user1497207191 Each party has similar numbers of MPs pro and anti the EU.
I disagree - there was a big remain majority among MPs and even many pro-Brexit MPs thought we'd remain in the single market even if not members of EU. Many MPs are now on the Brexit side resignedly rather than whole heartedly, 'make the best of it' rather than believing it's actually best for the country.

Anyway I know no party is going to campaign to rejoin right now, I was having a fun daydream about Cameron trying to mop up his disastrous legacy, that's all. I don't think the issue can go away because it's causing harm. But no one is going to look it squarely in the face any time soon, you're right on that.

@thecatfromjapan I meant that the current system and conditions mean you need to be a slimeball to succeed (or it certainly helps a lot) - prepared to be just about masochistic in how much awful stuff you're prepared to endure. Ordinary humans with ordinary mindsets fall away. I don't mean all politicians are awful, I mean a lot of the good ones step away because it's such an awful environment.

It's more the message than the "pounds in your pocket". Workers, rightly, feel aggrieved that they've been targeted more than any other group over the past 25 years. Increasing NIC was only one way that "the middle" have borne the brunt of tax rises. NIC only hit workers, so it was a very unfair tax. When people feel that a tax is unfair, they don't like it and vote accordingly. The Tories WILL win a lot of voters from workers due to the reduction, whether workers notice the extra money in their payslips or not. It's been a relatively cheap way of winning some votes and doesn't do much damage to the country's finances. Cutting 1 or 2 percent off income tax would have cost a lot more and wouldn't have addressed the fundamental unfairness of NIC only being charged on workers.

You do realise that Labour's 'stance'on war in middle east is exactly the same as the Tories, don't you OP?