To think it's not a foregone conclusion that Labour will win the next election?

[flashbac]

I am seeing things here and there predicting Keir Starmer being our next prime minister etc, as if its already been decided.

I won't be voting for them under Keir that's for sure. Their stance on Gaza is the straw that broke the camel's back. I don't care if the Tories get in again. I am so disenfranchised I dont give a shit and at least with the Tories its "better the devil you know" and not Labour pretending they give a shit about people/human rights.

Not everyone - Poland recently went the other way too.

Is Poland a close neighbour?

At the end of the day, Labour won in 1997 because of Tony Blair. They lost in 2010 because of Brown. Labour lost the last two elections because of Corbyn. Libdems did well in 2010 because of Clegg. Boris won the GE because of being Boris!

It's ALL about personalities at GE's, which is why Labour need to be cautious and not assume they'll win the next GE because Starmer has no charisma at all. I've seen dead fish that are more entertaining and engaging. I think he'll probably win simply because the Tories are so bad at the moment and Sunak will definitely lose it for them if he remains leader, but Labour need to tread carefully and not alienate any more voters with their stupid "policies" on Palestine and Trans women. Ironically, they've more chance of winning if they just shut up and keep quiet for the time being, followed by writing a pretty generic unexciting, but safe, manifesto - something that is very bland so as not to risk alienating any more potential voters.

I don't think you have the right to tell me who as a woman I shouldn't vote for.

Lots of people remember when Kinnock was riding high (though not exactly a shoe-in) before the infamous Sheffield rally upended Labour.

I'd vote for managerial competence, but those options are thin on the ground.

But Lab won in 2002 and in 2007, despite Blair!

I get what your saying though.

To me, it will depend on the size of the tax cut Hunt pulls out the bag, i think people are that fickle/stupid.

Tories have pulled back 4pts on Labour with a small decrease in NI, so it seems no one cares about lack of Dentists, the state of the roads or needlessly dying in AE.
Blaming huge increases in migration on the previous (Tory) Govt, within this Parliament ... unbelievable people swallow this shit but they do.

Too right. Children are being damaged now - the number being prescribed puberty blockers has doubled in the last 18 months.

It's VAT on private schools which killed Labour for me. So all of the parents in our school will be the first ones to vote for Tories.

I can’t vote for any political party whose leader doesn’t know what a woman is.

I think they'll get in, because so many people are fed up of the Tories and feel like a change is needed, but I've never voted Labour in my life and I'm not about to start now. Plus, my DC are at private schools and no fucking way will I vote for VAT on school fees!!

David Cameron is a peer now. Wouldn’t that rule him out?

They are running out of time to have a leadership election, involving the membership, if they want a spring election, likely as per Hunts tax cuts last week.

You said Reeves was uninformed in an earlier post, yet you think a Lord, who isn't an MP can be leader of the Con party within months?

Same with Farage, not an MP, lost deposit 5 times.

I won’t be voting labour (they can’t possibly win in this area) but I do quite like Kier Starmer. He’s a MUCH more attractive prospect than Jeremy Corbyn was as a potential labour prime minister. I believe other floating voters who are neither left or right wing may also consider voting for him.

Probably not, at least he was democratically voted as party leader by the MPs and members at some point in the past, so has some credibility as leader.

Rishi never won, either from MPs nor members, so he has no rightful claim as leader at all. He came second! Neither a majority of MPs nor a majority of party members voted for him as their leader!

They can’t have another leader before the next election. They’ve already had five in 13 years - three of them in the last 28 months! They’ll soon boot him out after the election but the choice of replacements will be pretty limited.

I think part of the problem is that politics has become so toxic, fewer people want to go into it (long hours, constant hate mail and threats, press reporting on your every mistake, everyone thinking you have your nose in the trough etc) and let's face it, you can make much more money elsewhere without all the hassle.

This. Mn is a good example - every political thread on here has vicious personal attacks on politicians of all colours.
Sarah Vine said when she was married to Michael Gove, their children were abused in public - who needs that?
And not only threats - MPs have been murdered.

Rishi got in as party leader without a leadership election. He lost the leadership election to Truss, so has no legitimate claim to be party leader. He was parachuted in by the "boys in the backroom" in Tory party HQ when there should have been another election which would have led to someone else winning instead of Sunak! Nothing at all to stop those same shadowy puppet masters to impose Cameron as party leader without an election. After all, they've done it once. All they need to do is ensure that there are no other candidates standing to oppose him - i.e. what they did to get Sunak as leader - "buy off" potential opposing candidates with promises of ministerial jobs, a peerage, or suitcase of cash, or whatever they had to do!

So you think a Con leader who doesn't sit in the commons is a probability? either that or you re taking the piss.

Sunak is a legitimate Con leader because he won according to the parties rules.

Cameron has to become an MP first, so a: find a safe seat b; get the sitting MP to stand down c; DC has to win, not a foregone conclusion... d; Win the leadership election or whatever they do.

Cameron isn't popular with the public (Brexit & then walk out)

Reform party might well do in the Tories.

As mentioned upthread - PM needs to be an MP though so Cameron would need to renounce his peerage and stand in the GE (or before it). Unlikely, but then I never imagined even the Tories would elect Boris as leader so who knows?

The fortunes of incumbent PMs can change - Thatcher was the most unpopular post-war leader until her inaction triggered the Falklands.
The she was swept back to power on a wave of jingosim.

This is probably unlikely to work for Rishi but Argentina has a new leader.....

As Labour voters we were an anomaly in our DS's boarding school. I don't think that the Labour party will be expecting your vote.

Aye - can't imagine that's going to be a massive swing to the Tories.

Re Labour and Gaza.

can you explain what’s different about their policy vs the government’s?

its exactly the same. Difference is they have more Muslim MP, councillors and members to keep happy.

Op you have more saying yanbu

My answer is who knows, we may see the same issues as in EU as picked up here start to dominate

I will be voting conservative. Never in my life will I vote for Labour.

Their policies are the much the same, but as you say their demographic is not. There weren't any Socialist Worker banners or Union Representation at the anti-Semitic march this weekend. Lots of ordinary people of all parties there, many of whom were at both matches, but an obvious lack of left wing presence.

Tommy Robinson was there, as he was at the pro Palestine rally, the far right again causing trouble.

As there were 100,000 people marching, a fantastic turn out, i don't really see how would know their political views.

The Met and the organisers both asked for people not to carry banners/placards.