To worry this war might lead to WW3.

[Castlerock44]

I feel so sorry for everyone involved in this war in the Middle East. So many people think it can't affect us but it could so easily escalate with Russia and the US getting involved. I'm quite scared tbh. Anyone else?

No, not worried. This will pass.

I agree it is deeply worrying. It has long been thought that WW3 would start in the Middle East (most likely involving Israel) but there's nothing we can do about it. Avoiding the news will not help, it is far better to be informed, assuming we are being told the whole truth.

YANBU.

Israel has nuclear weapons.

All it would take would be one Iranian missile landing on Israeli soil. Retaliation would be immediate & overwhelming and it is highly unlikely that anything could stop that confrontation escalating into a wider regional war. Other nations would then inevitably be sucked in, with catastrophic consequences for all of us.

Oh wow I wasn't expecting that last sentence 🤣

This conflict dates back WAY earlier than that. Several millennia in fact.

why do you think they will bomb you?? Worry more about IRAN having nukes.

Well Iran back/supply Hamas & Hezbollah no?

During the Iraq war (either one), surveys showed that the more people followed the news, the less they knew of what was actually going on. As we now know, "the news" turned out to be mostly propaganda and hype.

That was then but if anything it's gotten worse. Seriously, does anyone believe any news outlet that will un-ironically refer to rapists as "she"?

Egypt doesn't want to get involved. Their efforts have been on de-escalation. Who wants a war on your doorstep relating to a territory you have no claim over? Egypt has tightly controlled the numbers crossing from Gaza for years to avoid bringing conflict onto its soil.

The best the Russians can hope for is arranging a few cyber attacks from afar with the hope of further fuelling the situation. Iran is not a nuclear power, and you're right - unlikely to square up to the US (who are most definitely not staying out of it). As for Turkey, mentioned up thread, they're a NATO member.

Everyone just needs to calm the fuck down.

Bloody men and their wars.

Also, someone needs to get them all in a room together and make them watch Threads. That'll teach 'em.

Biden doesn't even know where he is half the time 😅

@MisschiefMaker We weren't told the same thing when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 - no-one I'm aware of said anything remotely comparable. There wasn't a war then, so would have very been hard to claim Russia was losing one - the Russian armed forces may be poorly trained, corrupt and incompetent, but even they would struggle to lose a war against no opponent.

Russia's hold on Crimea is more tenuous now than it has been at any point since annexation. They've had to relocate the bulk of the Black Sea Fleet (the basing for which was a key reason for annexing Crimea) because of the damage the Ukrainians have done to it. They have only been able to hang on to it because of Western anxiety about Russian nuclear threats. Whether that anxiety continues to help Russia will be an interesting question for the next year.

The war as a whole has been an epic disaster for Russia in every conceivable way. They haven't been this diplomatically and militarily weak since the 1990s. Aside from the human cost (which the Russian govt doesn't care about), they spent billions and billions of dollars on a completely unnecessary war that has done it nothing but damage and left it dependent on China - ethics aside, it's the dumbest thing a major country has done in my lifetime.

On who to trust: all media and analysis out of Russia is pure propaganda. Sadly, that even includes academics now - people I used to respect have just turned into mouthpieces for the government. Not surprising though, given the punishments for stepping out of line. There's propaganda by Ukraine too, inevitably, but the reporting from some Ukrainian journalists is good - Illia Ponomarenko of the Kyiv Independent is a good source in my experience. UK newspaper and TV war reporters (the people actually on the ground in Ukraine) are good. If you want detailed analysis of the current status of the war and where it's going, probably the best English language analyst is Michael Kofman (he's on twitter) - he really knows what he's talking about, and his cautious take on things has been annoying less careful people on every side since the start of the war in Feb 2022. But you may not want that level of detail.

I have wondered if Russia was involved with the timing of the Israel / Gaza conflict, via Iran.
Because they are struggling in Ukraine. They expected to roll right over it, remember.

The head of Ukrainian intelligence services second only to Zelenskiy thinks we are heading there.

https://news.yahoo.com/world-rapidly-approaching-world-war-112500360.html

I'm sure Putin is rubbing his hands with glee with this distraction.

Israel have also been involved in Azerbaijan, leading to the surrender of the Armenians - over 100,000 of whom have now fled Nagorno-Karabakh for fear of reprisals. https://apnews.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-weapons-israel-6814437bcd744acc1c4df0409a74406c

Imagine being this ignorant….

Anything could tip us into WW3 at any time with how volatile everything is.

Israel needs oil and an ally in the region. We play nicely with Saudi Arabia even though they fund terrorism that directly impacts us.

@pollytee It's his job to say things like this; I would take it with a pinch of salt.

Of course what's happening in Israel-Palestine is very worrying for the region and a regional war would be a disaster - but I really don't see how we end up with WW3, because none of the world's most powerful states wants it. Russia and the US/NATO have been very careful to avoid letting accidental or no-so-accidental events (Russian drones over NATO; the US or Turkey killing Russian regular and irregular forces) lead to escalation in Ukraine, Syria and Nagorno Karabakh in recent years. Putin doesn't want to start a war with NATO that would destroy Russia; Biden doesn't want a war with Russia (or any US involvement in a war in an election year); China has no interest in a war in the Middle East. States have to be willing to let accidents escalate for war to happen; everything we can see tells us that none of the big states are willing for that to happen.

I have a policy of not worrying about stuff that I have no control over.

What will be, will be.

I can’t see how this will lead to WW3 any more than any of the dozens of other events that could, in theory, have lead to a
bigger war.

Nah, what's the point in worrying? If they decide to go nuclear none of us will even know about it we'll be dead within seconds.

True. And just like in Northern Ireland eventually Israel will have to agree to do a deal with terrorists (and remember one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter). There were many in NI that were sickened by the thought of power sharing with former members of the IRA, but it had to be done. The sooner Israel accept that the better.

No matter how much Israel pushes to trigger ww3 there's the Iran factor and Russia and the trigger of the Arab and Muslim nations to follow. The US and it's tail the UK are still indirectly fighting a war with Russia in Ukraine and that isn't going so great is it despite murdoch's efforts to show you otherwise.

The western countries cannot afford a war if they are directly involved, they can only afford if they sell arms which is what they are doing. Look at Europe can't even deal with their bedbug crisis. I think if they go ahead with ww3, each country's own public will hang their own leaders just like in medieval times first before they do.

So personally, I don't think ww3 would happen but Israel will expand its occupation going more north though!

They’re all somewhere bad. Well, theoretically bad - which means that they’re against “us” even though if you look at it we’re actually the bad guys.

look at Iraq. Look an how many Tony Blair murdered. And there never were any WMD.

Too many people, including in here are drinking too much kool aid and doing too much virtue signalling.

It’s getting too serious for that and a lot of turkeys are going to come home to roost.

it’s past the stage of parroting the narrative so your friends like you.

its far too dangerous for that. You need to use your brain and think what you’re doing and saying.

impossible for most, and they’ll pay the price because the system hasn’t been able to protect you for some time.