@WhalePolo
"I’m agreeing with @SaltyOne in terms of ‘sacrifice’.
In one scenario (no lockdown) your expecting the vulnerable to sacrifice their lives for the sake of the quality of lives for the healthy and not vulnerable to Covid
In the other scenario (lockdown) you're expecting the healthy and not vulnerable to Covid to sacrifice their quality of life for the lives of the vulnerable.
I think the latter is ‘better’ because - to have no life (to die) is the ultimate loss."
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Firstly thank you for your blunt but clear and honest summary of the choice to be made. I would sympathise with this view if it were a simple question of externality where the benefit to the individual (of not having to wear a mask or lockdowns etc) was outweighed by the externality cost to others (more spreading of Covid resulting in the deaths of more predominantly elderly).
That said there are many examples in society of "acceptable" externalities such as:
Ability to drive a car to work where the benefit to the individual (not having to rely on public transport, easier, more comfortable etc) is outweighed by the externality cost to others (air pollution causing deaths, road accidents, cost to society of traffic jams etc). Or
Alcohol where drinking is associated with crime and violence, road traffic accidents, costs to the healthcare system and lower economic productivity. Or even
Grand National horse race where the benefit to spectators (nice day out) is outweighed by the externality cost of the lives of two or three horses which die every year.
However my premise is that the number of lives saved, of the predominantly elderly, in the short term during the pandemic by having the lockdowns and preventing the wider spread of COVID will be outweighed by the greater number of lives lost in the longer term because of the lockdowns.
This is of course incredibly difficult to prove one way or the other, for example we can never know how many lives were saved by having the lockdowns or whether the lives lost since the pandemic are truly as a result of the lockdowns. But examples include:
amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/18/covid-epidemic-cancer-diagnosis-pandemic-europe
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/22/heart-deaths-rise-by-500-a-week-after-covid-19-pandemic/
In addition the economic damage from both the lockdowns and resultant increase in national debt increases poverty and inequality which in turn creates further excess deaths:
Or on the disruption to education where children whose education was badly disrupted from the lockdowns has seen as rise in no attendance meaning they are likely to be poorer, more likely to be long term ill and more likely to die earlier .
news.sky.com/story/warning-over-grossly-inadequate-mental-health-support-for-schools-that-could-make-high-absence-levels-the-new-norm-12970526
And whilst we are being blunt the COVID death rate was heavily skewed towards the elderly with seven out of ten deaths being over 75 and only 2% being under 44.
amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/16/what-do-we-know-about-people-who-died-covid-uk
Plus with an average age of death for COVID at 83 it is worth pointing out that once you get to 85 you have a 1 in 10 chance of dying every year anyway.
Whereas the greater and longer term deaths from Covid are spread across all age groups but with the youngest suffering most as they have more years ahead of them to die relatively earlier (if that makes sense).