To ask how you think the UK will survive these?

[wheresmymojo]

Linked to another thread but I don't want to take that one off on to too much of a tangent.

Things don't feel brilliant in the UK right now, it's not the first time we've had 'bad times' though.

However I feel it's different this time because we have four massive looming global changes coming...usually when you're in 'bad times' there aren't four much, much bigger problems already on their way.

I'm interested in how people think the UK will fair, I spend a lot time trying to understand / imagine what the world will look like after some of these things but haven't remotely wrapped my head around what all four combined would look like?

The four things I see on the horizon are...

• The impact of climate change (personally I think 1.5c+ change is pretty inevitable now)

• The aging population / huge decrease in working age population

• The potential for AI to become more intelligent than humans

• The decline of the West and rise of the East

Their*!

We aren't irrevocably doomed

Depends on the "we", really. Returning to 410CE Britons, they weren't doomed either. But it would be a long wait for their next avocado.

The four things I see on the horizon are...

• The impact of climate change (personally I think 1.5c+ change is pretty inevitable now)
• The aging population / huge decrease in working age population
• The potential for AI to become more intelligent than humans
• The decline of the West and rise of the East

I'm going to add to those

• war as a result of climate change, as countries compete for resources, and as migration increases. Even if the UK is not involved directly in a war, if any western countries or major powers are at war we would almost certainly be affected, as we have been by Ukraine.

Someone mentioned free speech and the crushing of dissent - this is definitely an issue currently but I think (hope) it's only temporary.

@Caradonna yes this was my point too in my post below- these are not single young people living in house shares that are now coming in- I'm not anti immigration at all but by losing so many young EU workers they are being replaced by people who I think will actually have bigger demands on housing and healthcare and are unlikely to be coming here just for a few years-

My view is with the EU is that at least it was a 2 way street and gave uk citizens 'other options' too for work or retirement , short term or long term- now most of us have lost those easy options unless you have an EU passport or are wealthy enough to buy your way in or have very specific sought after shortage skills .

Remember the 'we hold all the cards' - no we didn't- we held none of them .

Personally the sooner the human race is wiped from the planet. Or whittled down to safe levels, the better.

We've had a shot and we suck. Time to let the planet heal and get on.

Speak for yourself

Do you have dc?

The aging population / huge decrease in working age population

Did you ever give a thought to the effect two world wars had on populations?
The cream of manhood was decimated. After WW1, many women in UK faced a lifetime as childless spinsters because there were not enough men to go round. After WW2, Australia and Britain were so desperate for workers they bribed people to migrate.

The reason third world women produce so many children, is the knowledge so many won't survive infancy. The reason first world women produce more children than they can house and feed, is the welfare society. The rich West has skewed population growth in the third world, by foreign aid we're going to stop. Our wealth has skewed population growth at home, by a nanny state that produces helpless dependents. Will we face a generation unable/unwilling to support themselves, too physically or mentally unfit for employment? What's going to happen to all the obese diabetics with circulatory and MH problems, when there's no more "free" health care and medication? Nature will take its course here and in Africa.

Exactly. And the more countries that join in, the more pressure it puts on the rest.

Surely trying is better than not trying and explaining to our children/grandchildren that we didn't bother because we were waiting for someone else to do it first.

@2bazookas
The reason first world women produce more children than they can house and feed, is the welfare society

Last I checked our birth rate is below replacement level. In some countries they're actively giving incentives to increase the birth rate.

In the developing world one of the best ways to reduce the birth rate is to educate women. Educated women have less children and their children have a higher survival rate.

I don't think the East will rise, not with those population pyramids and general attitude to immigration. Gonna be another US century.

I agree Japan, China and South Korea have much worse population pyramids but USA seems to have many internal problems of it's own.

Here in UK have a decade of more 18 year olds coming of age. The number of 18-year-olds, which fell during the 2010s, has begun to rise sharply. Britain had 715,000 of them in 2020 and expects to have 893,000 in 2030—a 25% increase which should help the economy for a bit.

I think we are vulnerable on food - we've been dependent on imports for a really long time so farming and global warming impacts are a big vulnerability- but we are still a rich country.

I think A.I will shake down eventually get redirected to useful places after laws suits and limits get placed on it next few years.

I think there are many worse places to be in the world than the UK despite all the challenges we are undoubtedly facing.

Last I checked our birth rate is below replacement level.

We're not far of death rates exceeding birth if we haven't already reached that in UK - most of the population increase is due to immigration.

World wide fertility rate in 2020 was 2.30 births per woman - 2.1 is the replacement level - most of higher fertility is from sub-Saharan Africa were child mortality remains high.

I agree with your last point. Some countries have a geographical advantage and can more easily defend borders but if other countries can’t or are in trouble it could get more volatile.

I agree Japan, China and South Korea have much worse population pyramids but USA seems to have many internal problems of it's own.

It does, but they also have some of the more favourable demographics of rich countries, are essentially impossible to invade, have a willingness to accept at least some immigration plus the advantage of being English speaking, and most importantly they're on top of the perch already. Someone would have to surpass them. There are currently no realistic candidates.

USA has it's own supplies of oil and gas and coal. And as it moves away has all the space in the world for pv panels and wind turbines.
But it is also raking in a vast profit as it owns and runs almost ALL the internet software and streaming services which we happily all pay for to their low tax offices in Ireland or similar. But they buy nothing of ours in return.

Many in developing countries are currently taking advantage of the care visa using it as a means to secure education and home student university fees for their children. The syndicates are charging about £12,000 to sponsor a care visa. This is worthwhile as it enables the applicant bring in their husband or wife and unlimited amount of children. In countries where documents can easily be forged and defended it's a way to bring in many children of other family members. This is cheaper than the study visa where you have to re-apply after 2yrs for another 2yrs to work and pay the NHS surcharge. So this will also help boost population but as you say it increases demand on other services.

Raw processing power isn't the same as reasoning though.

But the USA isn't one person/entity. Average person isn't getting royalties from Microsoft.

There are some things we can do;

minimise the effects of the climate emergency by cutting carbon, insulating homes and putting in place things that will help us tolerate things better.

increase food security by changing farming practices and encouraging home growing.

reduce inequality so that there isn’t such a disparity and those who are the most vulnerable still have a decent quality of life. Tax wealth rather than increasing income tax for example.

turn caring into a profession - make it a viable career choice.

put in legislation around AI. Place more value on roles that AI can’t do - creativity, human to human relational and caring. Those roles that have been undervalued for years (many due to patriarchal structures).

mostly we need to stop rampant, unfettered capitalism - this doesn’t mean we have to go completely the other way.

Same. Except Brexit. Smaller jurisdictions and competition between them is better for citizens. While continents Governed with no easy alternative favours the political class.

21 year olds can leave.

We don’t have unfettered capitalism.

Central banks fix the price of money.

And at least since the 1990s regulation has been growing.

Govt uses debt as well as taxes to increase the proportion of spending that is directed by them, not by individuals.

This is why we are poorer than we were.

Senior politicians know we would all be happier, healthier and richer if they cut back Govt. But their interest is in taking citizens’ cash, taking their salary from it and in the power (financial, favours, and social) they have from controlling how it is spent.

Fivethirtyeight

May be so, but so many important parts of society are left to ‘the markets’ to shape. Without some significant changes, the system is absolutely set up to increase the wealth of the wealthy and keep the poorest, poor and getting poorer. The odds are very much stacked for you if you have wealth and against you of you don’t. In many many ways. The inequality in this country is staggering, and that increases mental health issues (for all, not just the poorest), increases crime, and puts extra pressure on health and social care. It’s not good for anyone really - apart from the psychopathic wealthy (the more empathic and/or anxious wealthy suffer psychologically).

Climate change. When you go to America and see their cheap fuel, massive cars, excessive plastic and 5 million plastic bags for every shop - what we are doing is meaningless really. Comes from the right place but it’s a drop in the ocean so climate change is inevitable. We will be lucky to even stay away from worst case targets.

We are already well on our way to a crack pot economy and I think it will be 10-15 years absolute max before we see the impact of that. The tipping point has been passed. State dependency is the highest on record. Over half of adults now take out more than they put in. That’s just not sustainable long term. Our hospitals and schools are collapsing. Anyone with good earning potential or who has transferable career prospects should leave. The rich get richer and the people who earn good money are paying for over half the population to access collapsing schools. That will get worse and more people will leave.

AI is a good thing. It’s may actually bring some competence and ability to a country which values low wage jobs and minimal education.

The West is already in massive decline anyway. Just look around you.

@IsitChristmasyet23 Couldn't agree with you more.

State dependency is the highest on record. Over half of adults now take out more than they put in. That’s just not sustainable long term.

This is the salient point for me. . So many seem to be quite happy to delegate personal responsibility to the State (one only has to look at the rabid deference to the daft covid rules as an example). Adult income tax-payers in the UK are now in the minority.

The West - and the UK especially - will continue on a path of managed decline. But hey, we've replaced plastic straws with paper ones!

Which is why we are now in our period of decline. It was all fine when people were getting free Covid money, UC ‘top ups’ for working in less than full time in entry level jobs. It was all fine when it was hysterical teachers and nurses saying that buildings were dangerous and full of asbestos. Just made up, the state wouldn’t let it get that bad…It still is fine because people only realise when it impacts them.

Oh, and the disappearance of state employees because they aren’t paid enough. The silent and slow erosion of the NHS now, where it is often the point of no return and too late. It will be no better under Labour. Painful fact is, as small minority are funding everyone else and there is only so much to take.

At no point in this country did the majority think who is paying for all of this? Government wastage is a red herring. Over half the population don’t pay enough to cover what they take from the state. Benefits, NHS, education, etc. The people funding it aren’t the wealthy millionaires. They are a tiny, ever decreasing minority of higher rate tax payers who pay for everyone and get nothing out. Paying the highest marginal tax rates in the world.

Frankly, we are screwed.

Dunno OP. I'm just going to continue loving my kids, pottering at my allotment and hugging all my dogs. Make as good choices as I can in life and hope for the best.