To ask how you think the UK will survive these?

[wheresmymojo]

Linked to another thread but I don't want to take that one off on to too much of a tangent.

Things don't feel brilliant in the UK right now, it's not the first time we've had 'bad times' though.

However I feel it's different this time because we have four massive looming global changes coming...usually when you're in 'bad times' there aren't four much, much bigger problems already on their way.

I'm interested in how people think the UK will fair, I spend a lot time trying to understand / imagine what the world will look like after some of these things but haven't remotely wrapped my head around what all four combined would look like?

The four things I see on the horizon are...

• The impact of climate change (personally I think 1.5c+ change is pretty inevitable now)

• The aging population / huge decrease in working age population

• The potential for AI to become more intelligent than humans

• The decline of the West and rise of the East

The UK has contributed 5% of all historical made global emissions. With less than 0.9% of the world's population.

Currently we emit 1% with a population share of 0.87%.

And that doesn't include carbon we generate through offshore endeavours, such as international flying - all of which which contributes another 1%.

Just because I see this "1%" quoted all the time and it hides a multitude of sins.

So I do think it’s unwise and unrealistic to ignore it

I don't think you understand & I don't know how else to explain it.

Climate change is already displacing people & it will continue to do so & increase. Not all of those people are going to invade the UK though & we are going to very much be in need of some migration due to our changing demographics.

Do you understand why we & other western countries need some migration?

I wish I was a boomer or at least a gen x’er
Had to spend the last great mostly carefree, mass internet free decade being a loser teenager in a small town

This regurgitated statistic is a misleading. 33m were displaced because Pakistan has one of the list corrupt governments in the world. In country of floodplains and agricultural land supported by artificial irrigation network, the government gobbled up funds that should have been spent on flood defences.

It wasn’t climate change that displaced the population, it was government corruption.

Where did I say they’d all invade the U.K.?

Maybe you’re arguing with things that haven’t been said.

Nor have I said western countries don’t need some migration. However no I don’t think we can keep increasing the numbers due to demographic issues. AI is another factor here too. This could change requirements.

What I think pretty much matches those Wired quotes.

Maybe you’re arguing with things that haven’t been said.

the irony 😆

Not really.

On your where will they go question

Where will they move to? Largely, northwards, to expanded cities, and entirely new cities that will need to be built on the habitable fringes of Europe, Asia, and North America.

There is no war in Albania or Iran nor indeed in Afghanistan now since the benevolent Taliiban took over

I never said there was a war in Albania?

People and politicians are going to have to talk
about mass displacement and migration pretty soon.

Even if some would rather they didn’t

The population was 50 milllion in th e1950s early 60s when I went to school. It's now approaching 70 million so that is a 40% increase in a lifetime. That is more than other European countries. And nearly all living in the SE.
People say we have lots of empty space but unfortunately there are no jobs there and no one wants to live there.

Much of the rioting in Paris was race issues. Assuming lots of immigrants will happily adopt British lack of religion and our habits doesn't happen once you get over a certain number of people as they obviously want their religions and lifestyle.
So I think that racism issues is a risk once large numbers move to another place.

People and politicians are going to have to talkabout mass displacement and migration pretty soon

I'm pretty sure migration has been a hot topic for years!

We have a recently planted orchard. Last year we lost a couple of pear trees because of droughting. We did a bit of research, replaced the lost trees and this year have watered our young trees regularly.

So we lost, we learned, we do some things differently.

Isn't that just how life goes? Things change, we adapt. There is no possibility to go back because we aren't the same as last year or as we will be next year.

Mass displacement

Hence Wired writing what they do

However, there is a big elephant in the international climate negotiation room that remains undiscussed: For increasing numbers of people, there is no way to adapt; they will have to move.

I’m sure there are other articles you can look up.

I don't agree with all the pessimism about Africa. There's an immense amount of untapped potential in Africa. All that youth and ingenuity is wasted in the hands of poor leaders.
With the right investment in infrastructure to mitigate climate change, particularly water, Africa should be a great resource. China is already investing heavily in Africa.

The population was 50 milllion in th e1950s early 60s when I went to school. It's now approaching 70 million so that is a 40% increase in a lifetime. That is more than other European countries. And nearly all living in the SE.

Well it's just over 67m. Immigration is a big factor but so is the fact people are living longer. Natural population is predicting to decline from 2025.

We got ourselves into this mess by voting to leave the EU and voting the Tories in over and over for the last 13 years.

You can say it makes no difference which government is in power but it bloody well does. The NHS delivered a good service in my area under new labour and I've experienced the massive decline first hand.

We have to take responsibility for the fact that we are turkeys who voted for Christmas.

How sad. I tend to think everyone understands at this point the threat of climate change but there are so many people who don't. The problem is how many people don't know/ don't understand or can't give a shit?
We need to prevent every single one of us to go over the 1.5 degree increase in temperature with each individual action, and I have no idea how that's going to change when so many people don't support it.

For those who think the UK won't be affected by climate change due to the geographical situation, its not just mass migration but also sweeping floods and also food availability/ prices that will be affecting massively the UK together with other countries.
Climate change dont understand borders.

I’ve started to really worry about the future, to the point where I’ve questioned whether I should have had kids and what their lives will be like. The most immediate problem I worry about is food and produce shortages. How are we going to feed the population when temperatures rise 1.5? The fact that south England is now booming for wine growing and vineyards in south France are packing up tells you all you need to know. There will be a relatively (at first) small shift in what we can produce but on a global scale this will be catastrophic. We need a global food strategy, but for getting the rest of the world for a min the U.K. NEEDS to produce far more of its own food. But how? This is something we could go some way to sorting out if the government gave a shite. I honestly believe that the best thing to do if you’re in the U.K. and possibly can is get a small patch of land/garden and learn to become a little more self sustaining. Stop ripping out weeds/ putting down plastic turf, using poison on your land. Nurture your plot of land and do everything you possibly can to create an eco system there because you’re going to need it. Realise it’s not possible for everyone have a patch of land.

Humans will start to revert to a more natural way of living and the people who survive and thrive will be those who are willing and able to do this. Focusing on things like conquering, warfare and exploiting others will come back into fashion, out will go "human rights" and tolerance of those who are different.

I don't think it's any coincidence that the moment we are most aware as a species, the moment we are most inclusive, the moment we look out for others as much as or more than ourselves, is also the moment when we are causing the most damage to the planet and the long term prospects for our species.

The way we live today is a massive departure from tens of thousands of years of the natural progression that allowed us to live this way. Slavery and the death penalty have allowed us to reach the point we have. The concept of "war crimes" is new. Things will be reversed fairly soon. If humanity survives we will look back on this era as one of decadence.

Having recently spent a fair amount of time in Southern Spain, we are not alone in our concerns for what comes next.
They are in a severe drought, their rivers are dried up, they are facing crop failure and drinking water shortages. Last summer, they already shut off water to some places. Within the next 10-20 years the area will become a desert.
Very scary really.

1. The uk is far better placed than much of the world with it being cooler. So actually, although cc is awful, we have the advantage

2. The population is ageing but healthier and working longer. Most will be working until almost 70.

3. Do you remember when they said computers would take all our jobs? Yes we now have self scan tills and robots calling us- byt most people prefer human interaction and there are more jobs than ever. We will adapt and overcome.

4. China has problems with the housing market, many Eastern countries also have huge lumbersome populations, and their rate of continuous growth just cannot be sustained. With growth comes higher wages and an increased standard of living. These countries don’t have benefits systems and can’t support their poorest members. This will be a massive disadvantage, especially when climate change keeps destroying communities and they can’t afford to rebuild. Please note, I am not gloating about this, it’s appalling and many countries are already experiencing inability to rebuild after disaster. We are all human, we all just want to raise our families and be happy so please don’t put East and West into a competition they don’t want to be in. The Uk, like Norway and similar countries will jeep doing what it’s always done- inventing, creating, thriving and adapting.

Nice bit of racism on the thread, too I see. 'African tribes' dear me.

The UK is facing hefty challenges which is what made me start to other thread, it feels hopeless as things stand now, particularly for those struggling with finances and the COLC. Public services are dire, the education sector is broken, our streets, roads and public realm are decaying. Where is the hope and inspiration? Where is the fire to rally people together to put things right? Or is our fate sealed and simply inevitable?

There are other threats which concern me too such as the next pandemic and what that looks like. Covid is still out there making people sick, it’s only a matter of time before the next one starts whether it’s bird flu or Covid 2, are we prepared?

The Ukraine war is still causing massive tensions between Russia and the West, the potential for that to become a wider far reaching problem is still high, if NATO gets involved then all bets are off when it comes to what issues we’d face.

Right now the state of things feels a little bit like looking at a pile of dirty dishes in a hoarders house, you should and could clean them but you know cleaning them is pointless because nothing will change and the rest of the house is still a tip.