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AIBU?

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"How the UK became one of the poorest countries in Europe"

468 replies

user1471452428 · 26/10/2022 22:09

www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/10/uk-economy-disaster-degrowth-brexit/671847/

Article in The Atlantic. When people post about declining living standards, they're often shouted down- but I think it's pretty clear that it is real and here to stay.

OP posts:
XingMing · 07/11/2022 21:03

Or you could look at the relative positions of debt to GDP of the rest of Europe. Only Germany looks better, and they are on the hook to bail out everyone else in the EU.

Alexandra2001 · 07/11/2022 21:34

BerriesOnTop · 04/11/2022 15:59

The most obvious is that as you shift to green energy, your demand for natural gas goes up as you need it for when the wind isn’t blowing/sun not shining. Particularly if you are swapping from coal due to air pollution concerns

also, Europe buys other things like fertiliser, coal, wood pellets

FGS even a cursory knowledge of history would tell you that even in the darkest days of the Cold War.... the West bought Russian raw materials, trade never stopped.

But then the USSR never started a European war, with such blood shed and threatened the use of Nuclear weapons.

Its got SFA to do with Green policies, no one foresaw Putin risking WW3.

Alexandra2001 · 07/11/2022 21:39

XingMing · 07/11/2022 21:03

Or you could look at the relative positions of debt to GDP of the rest of Europe. Only Germany looks better, and they are on the hook to bail out everyone else in the EU.

Yes Germany has a lower national debt but many countries in Europe have much lower Govt bond yields... i.e borrowing costs.

They r still higher than pre Truss and creeping back up... a 1/3rd more than France and way above Germany.... investors still see UK as a higher risk of default.

Debt isn't everything, take Japan, huge debt but very low borrowing costs.

What you are saying simply isn't correct.

TomPinch · 08/11/2022 07:12

Walkaround · 31/10/2022 19:44

@TomPinch - any lamentable interpretations come from the lamentable post. I can see what you meant to say, but tbh, whilst you made a few comments which paid lip service to the fact that every country is different, you then went on to list several countries with massively different colonial histories and resources as a general point that having been colonised doesn’t prohibit a country from becoming rich (no point mentioning their colonial past otherwise…) - a bit odd when you say you were not generalising (and surely completely irrelevant unless you were generalising). You also said about corruption in poorer countries, “in my view it has nothing to do with colonialism and everything to do with self-entitlement.” That is also a massive generalisation and an all or nothing claim, what’s more. Corruption does not just require the bad actors, it also requires the right circumstances for the bad actors to gain pre-eminence. Trump, Johnson, Hitler, Bolsonaro, Putin, etc, are representative of their times. Opportunists like this need certain circumstances to be able to gain a foothold, or worse, a stranglehold, over a country. So if you cannot see that a colonial past can very much have had a role in the development of the corrupt present, then I can only conclude that you are indeed generalising, rather than looking at specifics.

I think I had better reiterate my points.

First, it's not proven that colonialism keeps countries poor, because previously colonised countries (including some of the most egregious examples of colonialism) are now rich. Therefore you cannot, as many people do, blame all the problems of poorer countries on colonialism and leave it at that.

Second, what does keep countries poor (ie, over time) is poor administration, particularly corruption.

Third: this is not a defence of invading other people's countries (militarily or economically).

I've only really mentioned two countries - Ireland and South Africa. Both experienced heavy colonialism. The former has a population lower than 170 years ago because of one hell of a famine that the British government simply let happen. The latter was brutalised by 4 decades of apartheid and colonial governance before then. One is rich: one is poor. In one, if you bribe a public official you'll probably be prosecuted. In the other, you'll get a favour. Charles Haughey aside, guess which is which.

I accept that a colonial past may have a role in developing a corrupt present if the colonial administration was marked by corruption. I think I would also accept that if a country's administration is, on independence, impoverished, then it is difficult for honest people in that administration to prevent corrupt people from taking advantage. I would also say that in many places the issues are ones that predate colonialism and never went away. But these are problems that some countries have overcome over time, therefore disproving your point.

You say I said “in my view it [ie poverty] has nothing to do with colonialism and everything to do with self-entitlement” about poorer countries. But actually if you read my post you will see the 'it' I was referring to is the behaviour of Johnson, Cummings and co and making the point that if politics is allowed to degrade, a country's prosperity won't last. But as you mention it I think that any person's corruption has an unhealthy dose of self-entitlement regardless of their background. I think that's obvious, to be honest.

Wallmagic · 21/06/2023 06:03

Why does everyone talk the economy down? It’s creating scaremongering. I’m 66 and trust me the standards of living compared to the ‘ 70’s for is far better than it was then . I’m not referring to the homeless here . People are still puffing on cigarettes, drinking , paying for Netflix, Sky then getting into planes for holiday’s every half term . People are still in bars pubs and restaurants. I’m not for a saying that they shouldn’t have these things but we have come to expect a higher standard of living

Walkaround · 21/06/2023 08:05

Well, that’s a very simplistic way of looking at it. It all depends on who is still drinking, smoking, paying for Netflix, hanging out in restaurants and pubs, and going on holiday and who isn’t do all of the above, how it is being paid for, and how lifestyle affects long term health and prosperity.

Dogtooth · 21/06/2023 08:08

And it came out in the parliamentary investigation that multiple pandemic planning projects were put on hold because of Brexit.

So the pandemic was much worse for the UK due to Brexit.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/brexit-cabinet-office-government-covid-european-union-b2359202.html

Dogtooth · 21/06/2023 08:10

Wallmagic · 21/06/2023 06:03

Why does everyone talk the economy down? It’s creating scaremongering. I’m 66 and trust me the standards of living compared to the ‘ 70’s for is far better than it was then . I’m not referring to the homeless here . People are still puffing on cigarettes, drinking , paying for Netflix, Sky then getting into planes for holiday’s every half term . People are still in bars pubs and restaurants. I’m not for a saying that they shouldn’t have these things but we have come to expect a higher standard of living

I don't know. People are struggling to afford basic costs like housing, bills and food.

Netflix is a cheap form of entertainment, cheaper than cinemas and shows etc people might once have gone to. Holidays abroad are often cheaper than ones in the UK. People drank and smoked way more in the 70s than today.

Wallmagic · 21/06/2023 09:41

All I’m saying is , that I’m not seeing this downturn in the economy. I’m not living in a posh area. People seems to be doing ok from what I can see. Maybe slightly more cautious but nothing drastic. Whilst I agree that holidays abroad can be much cheaper years ago people only went away during the summer holidays now it’s every half term . What I’m seeing is there’s still money out there

Wallmagic · 21/06/2023 11:18

Well they aren’t rich that’s my point . The other thing is for all the reports on Britain being the poor man of Europe it’s not what my friends are saying in France. There are problems everywhere , look what happening in the US . It’s easy to be myopic but the problems are global

2bazookas · 21/06/2023 11:30

user1471452428 · 26/10/2022 22:09

www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/10/uk-economy-disaster-degrowth-brexit/671847/

Article in The Atlantic. When people post about declining living standards, they're often shouted down- but I think it's pretty clear that it is real and here to stay.

quote from your link "Americans who have visited the U.K. may not recognize the portrait I’m painting.*

Neither will many Brits living in Britain. Yes, the queen died; in harness at 96.
The US President PUBLICALLY didn't know, or forgot, just last week.

Yes, when UK elects get a dud leader, we get rid PDQ. Pity US doesnt.

Yes. we've had political problems (but nothing approaching the chaos and degradation of US politics).

If Britain's the poorest country in Europe, why does he think so many asylum seekers refugees trek right through all those wealthy EU countries to the |French coast to risk their lives in a tiny boat to get to Britain?

Wallmagic · 21/06/2023 11:48

Totally agree . No one is on dinghies going across the channel from Britain to France. I have lived in some not great areas. However many people are claiming to be much poorer than they are in order to get the give aways for free from food banks which impacts on those in genuine need as they get even less

Walkaround · 21/06/2023 17:32

Again, massive over-simplifications, starting with the idea that most refugees are making the effort to get to the UK, when that is simply not the case. You are then assuming they want to come here because they think it’s great and not, eg, because they already know people living here and are desperate not to feel totally isolated far from home; can speak a bit of English; think the UK owes them a greater moral obligation than elsewhere; know the processing system is sufficiently useless and chaotic that they might be able to “disappear” and work in the black market economy; or they are being people-trafficked by criminals with malign intent who have good criminal networks in the UK.

As for getting in a dinghy to go from the UK to France - whilst Brexit has made queueing for ferries more a bit shit, it hasn’t quite got to the stage that people are resorting to dinghies 😂.

Florenz · 21/06/2023 17:45

The UK is not one of the poorest countries in Europe.

Walkaround · 21/06/2023 18:21

Florenz · 21/06/2023 17:45

The UK is not one of the poorest countries in Europe.

Of course it isn’t. Mind you, that’s not actually what the linked article says, anyway.

Exasperatednow · 21/06/2023 18:22

SavoirFlair · 26/10/2022 22:12

Yeah this is nice and stuff but we have a Politics forum on Mumsnet that isn’t a graveyard with plenty of recent posts

YABU

This is how we got into this situation. People want it hidden away so they don't have to think about it.

XingMing · 21/06/2023 20:10

The UK is not yet one of the poorer countries in Europe, but in the latter years of our EU membership, when we contributed the second largest share of funds, the investment in infrastructure was targeted on the infrastructure of road and rail networks for Spain and Portugal.

Having spent eight weeks in those two countries in the last 22 months, I can say truthfully that the civil engineering projects across both countries have been ambitious and transformative, and well spent. Deep river valleys have been bridged and spanned by fast motorways, north and south, and east-west, and this has revitalised bypassed small towns.

The first time I went by ferry to Northern Spain in the early 90s, when it opened, it took six hours to Aquitaine by road; now you can do the same journey in under three. The eight hour trip to Galicia from Santander is now a four hour cruise, without tolls. From mid-Galicia to Porto takes 90 minutes but with tolls.

It's as transformative as the construction of the M5. When I was a child in west Cornwall in 1962, it was a six hour journey to Bristol. By 1990 it took two hours from Exeter, but now it's slowing again. Businesses where labour costs are high can move to lower cost regions and still get their goods to market quickly. Spain and Portugal are levelling up fast, and the UK is losing ground because the will to build a (desperately important) fast modern transport between East West Northern cities is continuously being ground down on the basis that the Pennines make it too difficult/expensive either for road or rail. I seriously despair of the Treasury and it's penny pinching parsimony.

XingMing · 21/06/2023 20:13

@Exasperatednow , yep I know it's there, and it's not a place I choose to go.

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