Liz Truss has resigned. Part 3: The Return of the King?

[sunnydaytoday0]

Continuation from last thread.

By Monday we could have a new prime minister, and by next Friday at the latest.

Will Sunak win this time, or could Johnson get his old job back? Would the Tory members once again go against the wishes of the MPs?

And yes I think Johnson sees himself as some sort of world king..

Simon French AT shjfrench
A bit more on the "dullness dividend" - with thanks to AT JonPr for write-up. A Sunak/Hunt team, in our view, closes spread btw Gilts & G7 sovereigns by a further 50bp - a ~£7bn reduction in 26/27 fiscal gap. Johnson, unshackled of Sunak fiscal discipline, widens it by 100bp.

The latter is more speculative as we dont know the approach a Johnson economic plan would take - but all intel from Westminster is Sunak was a check on BJs expansionary instincts. Financial markets will pick up on this revealed preference & assume looser fiscal/ tigher monetary

This translation of different policy stances - however rhetorically appealing a channeling of 2019 manifesto might be - through to increase mortgage costs should focus minds of MPs considering their options. Macroeconomic backdrop has changed since 2019 & important to "read the room"

Retweeting the Ed Conway tweet
Simon French AT shjfrench
Normally it takes a bit longer than 6 hours for sell side analysis to start playing out. Not today.

Economics, at this point, are more important to Tory popularity and interests than personalities it would seem.

How will Johnson react to this? If he puts the party and country first, he doesn't stand. If he stands he puts his ego first and risks everything because he knows he has to ride out that standards.

What will Hunt do? Serve under Johnson (he's previously refused to).

Opinium
🚨LATEST POLLING🚨
Overnight we ran three head-to-heads between the most likely Conservative leadership candidates. The results were:
> Sunak 45% vs 23% for Mordaunt
> Sunak 44% vs 31% for Johnson
> Mordaunt 36% vs 33% for Johnson
___
But apparently the Tories think he's a box office hit with the public.

Just plug it into my veins

Paul Brand
@ PaulBrandITV
NEW: Sources close to Privileges Committee say evidence is so damning that Boris Johnson could be 'gone by Christmas' if he returns.

One Tory MP tells me any attempt to kill the inquiry could 'bring down the govt'.

Yet momentum builds behind Johnson.

{If Johnson did indeed get Brexit Done, why is the UK still not routinely levying import taxes on goods coming into the UK from the EU

Why do some in government threaten to rip up the NI protocol which yes they signed.

How is the brilliant, better than offered to the EU trade deal with US going. With anyone else going?}

The UK is in Breach of WTO trade rules but as the WTO works slow it is not being fined yet. This will however not continue for long because India for example can use the breach as a way to negotiate fiercely. The UK was previously in breach for not collecting VAT on goods from China. Again negotiators will have noticed and it will be used against the UK.
NI Protocol simply has to be followed. there is a 'crunch' date (28 October?) when Stormont needs to get things sorted out (which everyone except the DUP) are at least relatively happy about but the DUP are jamming up the works by refusing to sit.
The USA trade deal is not even anywhere near the cooker, let alone the back burner as any trade deal (worth having) would take a decade or more and the USA isn't even thinking of starting the negotiations yet.
Those sneaky EU negotiators put in the Withdrawal Agreement /TCA that is now passede into international law, that due to WTO trade rules ANY beneficial trade deals the UK might make in future with anybody will AUTOMATICALLY be applied to the EU as well. thus there will never be a case where the UK gets a better' deal than the EU.
This is just part of why the Boris 'oven ready deal' is such a disaster for the UK.

If....If Boris gets back in...then is forced out by Christmas...then

sorry, no. My head has exploded at the thought.

It's absolutely ridiculous that some MPs would be happy for Johnson to come back knowing his track record and knowing full well he may end up being kicked out again by the privileges committee. If the Tory party is that devoid of talent that they want the likes of him back then they should just throw in the towel and call an election. They clearly are not capable of governing this country.

I agree with this:
He's an agent of chaos and putting him back into a highly unstable situation will cause an explosion.

We need a GE!!

Yup!

I cannot get my head round all the TV vox pops today of voters calling for Boris to come back. Are there really lots of people like this out there or is the media going in search of them and if so, why?

I’d sooner have Theresa May back than Boris Johnson. At least she’s diligently showed up to parliament as a backbencher since being deposed.

New poll, same outcome:

YouGov
@ YouGov
5m
Do you think Boris Johnson did or did not knowingly lie about whether or not he broke lockdown rules?

I think he did knowingly lie: 71%
I think he did not knowingly lie: 15%

They have to try and get views from both sides to appear 'balanced', even if it isn't representative of how the public feels overall.

Last night on Question Time they had an audience who had voted tory more than any other single party, and it was striking how many wanted a general election.

The BBC seems to be obsessed with Boris coming back. Why?? They are literally hyping him up.

I think there are a fair few and the media is out looking for them for a good story.

Sadly what we are seeing is the result of populism as much as the result of Brexit. Johnson knew how to come up with little sound bites and appeal to the masses with his ridiculous fucking hair and Bertie Wooster act and enough people fall for it for him to be in power under our antiquated FPTP system. That's why they can never point to anything positive or concrete that he has done - it's always that 'he's a character' or 'he got Brexit done' [painfully and patently untrue and what he has done is a fucking disaster anyway] or they rather desperately fall back on the vaccine rollout [also untrue - it was the army and the NHS.]

@ILeclercreturn - you are again spot on. I too worry about the UK approach to trade. It is unbelievably naive.

Johnson and his stupid deadlines. This just plays into the hands of other countries who are sharper than us. India are some of the most sophisticated multilateral players in the world. We are not. It shows.

My fear is the UK is being taken to the cleaners because of political stupidity. The world knows it, but not apparently the Tory Party.

While the circus is in town it is worthwhile looking at the business sections of the various papers and look at what news there is through the prism of it's affect on the UK with respect to the changes brought on by Brexit. Extra 'red tape' paperwork, transport delays compliance equivalence etc. Anything imported to the UK will attract tariffs as will exports of finished goods and raw materials mostly scheduled by WTO trade rules for which tariffs are high until trade agreements are negotiated and ratified.. These can easily be 10 year negotiations so nothing is going to be beneficial to the UK for a decade at least.
JR Mogg was (sort of) right when he spoke about 50 years to see the best benefits but of course the tabloids only printed the possible benefits and 'forgot' to say how many years it would take to achieve them.

We need a General Election - let the public decide. Tory Party Members put Truss in power - what does that tell us about their judgement! It’s ridiculous they just keep picking a PM out of their party, whatever next - passing the Premiership onto their children?

Given the message from "sources close to the Privileges Committee" that the evidence against Johnson is so damming that if he gets back in, he will be gone by Christmas I've Joe moved my position.

Bring it on.

If the party honestly vote for Johnson this time round, they deserve everything they get. It probably means a few years more working for me til my pension recovers but it feels ATM like a price worth paying for the Tory's to be brought up against painful reality (that everyone else could point out was a racing certainty) yet again.

My only real concern is to ensure there is an credible alternative by the time of the next GE.

Very nostalgic for the days when Italy and Greece were the countries we felt had no grip.

@sunnydaytoday0 I know but vox pops on BBC and Sky today with almost all the people they spoke to backing Boris. I can't believe this is truly representative. If so I have never felt so bewildered by my fellow voters.

Vox pops are usually done during work hours when - no surprise - most of the participants are pensioners who historically lean conservative and pro-brexit.

BBC homepage has 3 pics of BJ, 2 of RS and 1 of PM. He is also mentioned twice, once is big letters (RS mentioned once and PM not at all).

I t doesn't seem very impartial...

The UK has jumped into a pit full of alligators.
The good news is they brought sandwiches with them. The bad news is that tomorrow morning the alligators are going to be darn hungry.

OK one explanation for The BBC to hype up Johnson would be that anytime he is in the need I find myself scanning the news channels and web sites. If everyone dies that, it could be noticeable driving traffic to their sites and their viewing figures too.

Maybe, just maybe

the vox pops are such lazy nonsense.

They go to a Northern town (implying to viewers that because it's Northern it's former Red Wall town even if not) and ask people over 65 who are pootling about the town at 3pm what they think of the current situation. And then present that as somehow meaningful.

Never better said, may be the outcome of so many reality TV contests.