Is the UK in danger from Russia?

[hereforalongtimenotagoodtime]

Keep receiving conflicting information. I am sick to my stomach and quite simply hate the unknown. So a simple question - is it likely that the UK will be in danger from Russia? And if so what does that look like? Cyber attacks, bombs being dropped?

@Tealightsandd

It is not derailing to reply to someone else's serious misinformation....

of tiredness that all the experts agree diminishes with time and the vast majority that 'suffer' appear to be a certain sort of person. A compare that with potential for nuclear strikes on parts of Europe if anybody interferes! hmm

It is NOT a 'bit of tiredness'. It is, however, damage that often doesn't show up in routine scans but does in specialist ones. Vascular damage. Brain damage (including early dementia), lung clots, microclotting.

And again there's relevance wrt covid and war. If there were to be cyber or any other attacks, you better hope that our government has a better prepared and executed response than they have for Covid. If it's anything similar, it will be a case of half hearted pretence of protection with money spent in the wrong places, before rushing to downplay, dismiss, and minimalise. We'll then be told to 'live with it'...whilst senior government members and their mates get themselves airlifted out to somewhere safer (perhaps their NZ bunkers).

There is a considerable effort going to to limit damage from cyber attacks. Attacks like this have been going on for years. I'm part of the defence force

But hmmmm yes you're right to note that there is a difference between a highly contagious deadly and disabling disease, and nuclear strikes on Europe.

The former is much easier for everybody to mitigate against. Masks and good ventilation won't really help in the event of a nuclear strike.

It would make sense (for a rational person) to calmly focus on what we can protect against - rather than worse case scenarios that tbh you as a general member of the public wouldn't be able to do anything about.

@user1471518104

I hope the NHS computers have been updated since the last cyber attack? (which was nothing compared to what could happen).

Part of the problem was they were still using Windows XP, wasn't it?

@VelvetChairGirl

why would russia invade anywhere else we had the same fear mongering over Crimea.

the area has history, US backing of Svoboda etc.

I mean, he's pretty much said that he will. That all the former Soviet states properly speaking belong to Russia.

He may not be truthful of course about what he intends to do right now, but I do think he is being entirely truthful in the sense that Russia has a sense of manifest destiny about pretty much any place with a Russian history or population of Russian speaking people. Which would include even places like Finland. The psychology around this is just very different than what most of us feel. Heck, I live in a country where a lot of people feel they should really just leave and give it over to the indigenous population, if only they had somewhere to leave to. But that's not what the Chinese feel and I don't think it's what Russians feel.

Putin has been working for years to shore up the Russian Church as a nationalist institution, and that again has a real expansionist element that he could access if he wants, setting it against western secularism. He's also been talking a lot about the west intending to attack Russia, about it attacking Russian values, about it's secularism, about cultural expansionism. Does he believe that I don't know but I don't think it matters. Fears of westernization have been alive in Russia for hundreds of years.

*I mean, he's pretty much said that he will. That all the former Soviet states properly speaking belong to Russia.

He may not be truthful of course about what he intends to do right now, but I do think he is being entirely truthful in the sense that Russia has a sense of manifest destiny about pretty much any place with a Russian history or population of Russian speaking people. Which would include even places like Finland. The psychology around this is just very different than what most of us feel. Heck, I live in a country where a lot of people feel they should really just leave and give it over to the indigenous population, if only they had somewhere to leave to. But that's not what the Chinese feel and I don't think it's what Russians feel.

Putin has been working for years to shore up the Russian Church as a nationalist institution, and that again has a real expansionist element that he could access if he wants, setting it against western secularism. He's also been talking a lot about the west intending to attack Russia, about it attacking Russian values, about it's secularism, about cultural expansionism. Does he believe that I don't know but I don't think it matters. Fears of westernization have been alive in Russia for hundreds of years.*

I dont think he's a moron or mad, he will have Ukraine by the weekend and will sit back and see what happens.

and who are the Chinese?

thats another matter as that tends to mean the Han majority and no one gives a stuff about what they do to the other Chinese peoples.

He won't necessarily invade anywhere else. Of course at this stage we can't know and a lot also depends on US/NATO response.

Putin hasn't got past WW2. It has almost consumed him. Russia was invaded from the west and suffered heavy losses. He is obsessed with the idea of it happening again and he wants to feel there's no possiblity of Russia ever being invaded again. He wants a buffer between Russia and the west.

It's a dangerous and precarious situation right now but worse case scenarios are not (yet) a given.

@VelvetChairGirl

and who are the Chinese?

thats another matter as that tends to mean the Han majority and no one gives a stuff about what they do to the other Chinese peoples.

I always think people should refer to the governments, rather than the general populations.

@Tealightsandd

He won't necessarily invade anywhere else. Of course at this stage we can't know and a lot also depends on US/NATO response.

Putin hasn't got past WW2. It has almost consumed him. Russia was invaded from the west and suffered heavy losses. He is obsessed with the idea of it happening again and he wants to feel there's no possiblity of Russia ever being invaded again. He wants a buffer between Russia and the west.

It's a dangerous and precarious situation right now but worse case scenarios are not (yet) a given.

This I don't understand, he wants a "buffer" from the west but by advancing in to Ukraine he would effectively border NATO countries excluding Moldova to the south and Finland in the North.

If anything he gets closer to the west and moves closer towards NATO.

@MangyInseam

See this is what I think of when I think of a cyber attack. These things would be annoying but it is not a catastrophe for a shop to need to accept cash only for a day or two until systems are back (which they quickly would be).

Something to think about - how much cash do you carry around these days? How much do other people? The vast majority of money now is electronic.

Also thinking in terms of having to replace a lot of hardware - where does computer hardware come from? Well a lot comes from Taiwan, this is part of the reason it's been such a struggle to buy new cars and such recently. There is a ton of mining that is important to the IT industry in Ukraine.

I am a bit of a luddite, philosophically speaking, and I'm feeling increasingly justified in having thought that so much dependence on infrastructure that is so fragile and dependent on international trade was pretty dumb. Both in relation to covid and now security.

We keep a fairly sizeable stash of cash in various currencies.

I've been reading about cyber attacks (as some posters "politely" suggested I should do). I am reluctant to make this comment because of how aggressive and rude some posters are but I'll say it anyway: I still don't see how a cyber attack could be majorly disruptive to society. There just aren't any examples of it. From what I've read for the UK Wannacry affecting the NHS probably comes closest and the impact of that was "some NHS services had to turn away non-critical emergencies, and some ambulances were diverted". The impact of it was absorbed by non-affected hospitals.

In the US there was the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack - the oil pipeline was shut down for almost a week until the company managed to get rid of the ransomware. The result? "At least two flights (to Honolulu and London) had fuel stops or plane changes added to their schedules for a four-day period. The shortage also required Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport to use other fuel suppliers" and of course panic buying resulted in some (not all) gas stations being out of gas.

This is a discussion board so feel free to disagree with me or to provide examples of societal disruption that I'm not aware of but there's no need to be rude about it if you do.

@TheSillyMastiff
He sees it the other way round. He sees it as the US (through NATO) using Ukraine to get right on to Russia's borders. I'm not saying he's necessarily right btw, simply explaining how his reasoning.

@Kinsters you realise computers etc run traffic lights , payment systems, hospitals and record keeping , not all people can have cash around let alone different currencies

@Kinsters what if a banking system is down for days , no direct debits paid , people can't access money , etc etc . This also Has huge costs involved who do you think ultimately will pay these costs
Cyberattacks can cost millions and cause huge disruption

[quote worriedatthemoment]@Kinsters you realise computers etc run traffic lights , payment systems, hospitals and record keeping , not all people can have cash around let alone different currencies
[/quote]
I do realise that. But these systems are not all the same and interconnected, are they? I don't doubt that a cyber attack could cause disruption but all the examples I've seen online these attacks are localised and dealt with quickly (ie a matter of days). In the meantime service users divert elsewhere where the attacks have not had an impact.

I don't expect everyone to have cash, I was answering a question. I do think some people should think about having contingencies. Cash in the house, multiple bank accounts, that sort of thing.

I still don't see how a cyber attack could be majorly disruptive to society.

You lack any imagination!

The particularly significant part of this problem is multiple issues at the same time affecting multiple issues.

Imagine banks, payment systems, online systems for supermarkets, petrol pumps and hospitals all went down at the same time. Imagine that you couldn't ring or email anyone to report this was happening.

I don't quite know how this can be spelt out any clearer.

It begins to feel like its a wilful and deliberate thing to avoid thinking about this tbh.

@VelvetChairGirl

and who are the Chinese?

thats another matter as that tends to mean the Han majority and no one gives a stuff about what they do to the other Chinese peoples.

They might care but who is in a position to do anything about it?

But my real point was that I think a lot of people think of other cultures as basically having very similar thinking to our own, or to themselves.

Sometimes that is true but at the moment I would saw western countries as a whole are very different than many other places in the sense that they feel, if anything, a kind of impulse to contract, to be self-critical, that they have no moral or any other kind of position to try and influence anyone politically or even protect our own cultural institutions of beliefs. It's not a very consistent way of thinking but it doesn't give a lot of scope for directly imposing our political will on others.

But many other peoples don't really think that way at all, they don't see their place in the world that way, they don't see their ability to influence events that way, they don't see their own status that way. So even if there are pragmatic reasons for their actions there are a lot of other psychological elements as well.

At the beginning of the panademic there was lots of people saying it would never affect us and we would certainly never have a lock down.

Until we did.

@Kinsters
You're absolutely right. There is no need whatsoever for rude or aggressive posts. Nobody knows everything. And nobody should feel too embarrassed or scared to ask. That's how we learn - by asking questions and discussing (preferably minus hostile pile ons).

We are too reliant on technology. Cyber attacks unfortunately do have potential for enormous damage (worse case scenario).

But, to an extent, like with nuclear strikes (but unlike covid) there's not much the average member of public can do.

We can only hope our government is better prepared and more competent than they've been for the pandemic. The SARS-COV-2 response hardly inspires confidence but perhaps lessons really have been learnt.

We certainly can't afford to have cut corners, minimalising, or false economy. And, much as many will furiously deny this, Long Covid is an issue. Many long term ill working age people (including many essential workers) will be a problem.

There have been many things posted on here - some hugely negative too

Eg we would see collapse of society or we would t have running water - posted a few times at various stages

It’s not an indication of much only that it tends to be the same worst case posts being made re it’s likely

The fact is no-one on Mumsnet knows the answer to your question for sure. We can all speculate but we don't have access to Mr Putin's brain. Maybe ask Mystic Meg instead?

The Taliban has called for peace ✌️, you know you are up the creek if the well know peaceful organisation like The Taliban is objecting !

Meanwhile, the EU twiddles its thumbs as Italy secures the exemption of luxury goods sales from any sanctions, Belgium gets a similar exemption for the diamond trade, and Germany is still held hostage by their need for Russian gas.

What a total embarrassment that institution is.

@RedToothBrush

I still don't see how a cyber attack could be majorly disruptive to society.

You lack any imagination!

The particularly significant part of this problem is multiple issues at the same time affecting multiple issues.

Imagine banks, payment systems, online systems for supermarkets, petrol pumps and hospitals all went down at the same time. Imagine that you couldn't ring or email anyone to report this was happening.

I don't quite know how this can be spelt out any clearer.

It begins to feel like its a wilful and deliberate thing to avoid thinking about this tbh.

There's no evidence that it ever could happen though. Do you really think Russia has putsoftware on all those computers, totally undetected, ready to carry out all kinds of different functions to cause this chaos that you're imagining?

[quote Tealightsandd]@user1471518104

I hope the NHS computers have been updated since the last cyber attack? (which was nothing compared to what could happen).

Part of the problem was they were still using Windows XP, wasn't it?[/quote]
Haha I remember that one. Critical sectors. Or CNI. Are isolated off from the internet. They have to be to be allowed to operate. They do run out of date systems. But an attacker would need to be in key areas on site to compromise

@Kinsters do you think cyber attacks can only be done one by one or one at a time
Don't get me wrong in not sitting here overly worrying about it as there is jack shit I can do
But I do realise it could cause huge huge issues