Is the UK in danger from Russia?

[hereforalongtimenotagoodtime]

Keep receiving conflicting information. I am sick to my stomach and quite simply hate the unknown. So a simple question - is it likely that the UK will be in danger from Russia? And if so what does that look like? Cyber attacks, bombs being dropped?

@Tealightsandd

Are you really trying to compare post viral symptoms with Russia invading a country and the terror that people in Ukraine are going through? That's in such poor taste it's actually stunned me

Seriously?

You express concern about people suffering terror. What, like the 160,000 people in the UK killed by Covid? And the many disabled Long Covid sufferers.

(Hope, btw that your concern for the people in Ukraine is extended to those suffering in Yemen, Ethiopia, Syria, and other conflict torn regions).

Stunning poor taste indeed to dismiss heart, lung, and brain damage, strokes, clotting, and early dementia, that is Long Covid.

You are obsessed. Absolutely obsessed.

@HesterShaw1

Someone made the point that part of Russian campaigns, meddling and general shit stirring is via social media. A good example is on this forum and the idiotic "they're talking about subscription in the UK" post yesterday.

That's been going on for years but social media companies including many of those who run forums do SFA about it, as governments haven't forced them to.

I think people who spout things like this are just very, very thick and ignorant. If they can’t understand why Russia invading another, independent sovereign state is serious and there is now war in Europe, just three hours away from the U.K. then you’ve got no hope.

I think a "massive cyber attack" is like an invasion/declaration of war. How could we as a nation ignore something like that. We'd have to retaliate in some form or other.

I'm really not sure the UK are in any physical danger as such, as Putin and his buddies so in bed with BoJo & Co. But we really need to look at what he's done since yesterday morning and take some notice. Our govt been fannying around the last 2 years, royally fucking everything up, whilst they continue to cut everything to the bone, including our armed forces. The amount they've been depleted in the last 10 years makes me really nervous. Putin's been planning this for a very long time I feel, been sitting there building his troops/weapons/cash pile, so he can take whatever action he likes, and survive the sanctions we impose on him.

Meanwhile, the UK can't learn from history. We've been building gender neutral toilets.

Its hard to say. If he is either unwell or dying then he may well feel he has nothing to lose. He wants to be seen as a strong man so launching a nuke would certainly put him in the history books and he would go out with a bang.

That said, we have the nuclear deterrent AND they know that if they even attempted it the US would be all over them. The UKs standing is such that France would have to intervene due to proximity and other European nations would follow suit.

You can't predict a lunatic who genuinely believes that Russia has been victimised for decades, that Russia has had countries removed from them and that democracy is going to sweep into Russia and take power from him. Given his likely war crimes, he cannot accept any movement toward Russia because he is likely concerned that he may end up on trial.

I think he's bats hit and would use nuclear weapons.

But I also think we will stand back and let Ukraine fall to avoid this.

I think its advisable to make sure you have some cash to hand.

Batshit clearly lol

@RedToothBrush

If not Russia, there's Long Covid. Despite rumours to the contrary that threat has not gone away

If not Russia, there's Long Covid, if not Long Covid, there's extremist Islamic Terrorists, if not extremist Islamic Terrorists there's climate change, if not climate change, there's super bugs and resistance to antibiotics, if not super bugs and resistance to antibiotics, there's poverty and food insecurity, if not poverty and food insecurity, there's the rise of hackers, if there's not hackers, there's the risk of a super volcano, if not a super volcano there's the risk of a coronal mass ejection causing a Carrington Event and taking out all our satellites, power supplies and making planes fall out of the sky.

Or perhaps you could learn about relative risk and how to manage your anxiety better, cos saying shit like this is not a healthy sign.

An excellent post.

Plus, frankly I would rather have long covid than be bombed (nuclear or not) or invaded.

@Tealightsandd

If not Russia, there's Long Covid. Despite rumours to the contrary that threat has not gone away.

That’s patently a ridiculous comment. Long or short covid is NOTHING like a potential Third World War kicking off with a bullying psychopath at the helm.

But it's not just Putin, is it? He'll have people around him. Even if Putin himself is mad enough to launch a nuke someone close to him will be sane enough to not allow that to happen (you'd hope...).

I think he wants the allies to try and stop him using physical force. It would be an excuse for him to push the button and be remembered for it (assuming anyone survives to tell the tale of course). Regardless of the outcome of this war I believe it will either be climate change or a nuclear war that will end humanity as we know it. 5-7 years ago life was so much simpler. I miss those days when I could actually go to bed without worrying about anything.

@Campervangirl

We're not in any danger, it's a little man flexing his muscles (ok, he's got the might of the Russian military behind him). It's one thing invading Ukraine but it's a completely different ball game taking on America and Britain. No-one is nuking anyone. Putin can make all the threats he wants (must admit the threat was quite scary) but no one is going into a nuclear war or World War 3 over Ukraine. NATO is not going to let Putin get away with causing ww3.

Are you 100% certain over that? Like have you talked to putin about what he is planning and got the full truth? Spoken to Johnson and Biden on their plans, all other country leaders too?

No one here can possibly 100% know what is going to happen. You all thought two weeks ago putin would never invade Ukraine. Proven wrong there.

Hopefully he is only targeting Ukraine but I doubt it. He's old school, its possible he wants more. The one thing we don't know is how far he is actually going to go on that. He could go into that fully if he takes Ukraine.

We will find out over the course of the next few weeks/months/years. But I would not be putting all of my bets on he's definitely not going to target NATO countries. He very easily could.

@girlwiththetigertattoo

No the UK isn't in danger. The UK would moan and complain and condemn and secretly offer weapons to Ukraine doing charity works etc. Also the casualties won't be very high like some Middle Eastern country where they deliberately aim at hospitals and civilians with phosphorus bombs to ethnically cleanse and expand housing development. To not allow this to go out of context, I'm no way supporting what Russia is doing right now but what Russia is doing isn't ethnic cleansing and believe me, my native country has lived through ethnic cleansing in Balkans and mass graves are still being dug up today.

"Also the casualties won't be very high like some Middle Eastern country where they deliberately aim at hospitals and civilians with phosphorus bombs"

Wasn't Russia accused of doing these things in Syria?

Granted I am basing this all on my very basic understanding of what is going on and what I can remember from high school History class, but is anyone else seeing the connections in what happened back then with what is happening now?

Wasn't one of the main driving factors behind Hitler and his rise to power the aftermath of WW1 and the sanctions etc the ROW were still putting on them?

From Putin's perspective: wasn't there a general agreement between US & Russia that NATO would not expand further East after the Soviet Union. Now they have and there is talk of Ukraine joining.

You have to wonder how Biden would feel / what he would do if Russia and China formed a military alliance / club, refused to let the US join, then allowed Mexico and Cuba in on it and were in talks about letting Canada join?

Would he be making some threats? Posturing?

And if ROW responded to those threats / postures by the financial sanctions we've seen, what would Biden / Trump / Obama / Bush do then?

Add in the fact they've been under sanctions for years now, making them generally resentful of "the west" or the Anglo-American-Block who appear to wage wars wherever and whenever they want and well... don't we have the type of "straw that broke the camel's back" moment we saw in the run up to the world wars?

I feel like it's worth stepping back for a minute and seeing things from Putin's POV. I mean, what does he have to lose really? They share a big border. It's a pretty big "weakness" in his defence. To use the same US analogy, what if this was Ireland? What if the UK had many historical reasons to be wary of the EU, they're sanctioning us, they're making alliances with China, Russia, the US, and now they're in talks about getting Ireland in. We can all try to kid ourselves that a defence alliance like that doesn't put Norther Ireland and therefore the entire UK at risk, but really it does.

Would we just do nothing, or would we make the first move to "take Ireland back" so we'd have a much more secure border?

It's complicated basically, and I don't think we have any business getting involved in this war. In fact I don't think we have any business getting into any wars that don't directly affect us, as sad as that is for people around the world who cannot protect themselves.

@Monday55

One-on-one war against Russia and we will definitely lose, we literally like a mosquito bite compared to what they can do. The only countries that can win against Russia one-on- one are USA & China and there's absolutely no way China will ever fight on the same side as USA.

A lot of UK citizens sleep easy thinking we can defend ourselves but we are not even in the top 5 strongest armies and we barely make it in the top ten.

That's because we are a tiny island! Our army is amazing for the size of our country. But in the grand scheme we're insignificant. Which is why I hope Boris does not try to take the lead in pissing off Putin, because it would not take much to wipe us out entirely.

@Tealightsandd

If not Russia, there's Long Covid. Despite rumours to the contrary that threat has not gone away.

It's OK sweetie - we shall get him to put face masks on all the missile noses.

Seriously what the fuckedy fucky bollocks?!

It's scary as shit but move away from the "OMG HE HAS CHERNOBYL - NUCLEAR STUFF" thoughts. He wanted that area because it basically has the potential to open a route from Belarus (his allies) through toward Kyiv - nothing really to do with the reactor, just the strategic location of it - it opens up a short and relatively direct route.

As for nukes - that bit I don't actually get worried about - the Cold War era shows how much willy waving of their nuclear warheads they all got up to back then, but it wasn't covered in saturation level detail on rolling news, on phone alerts and on social media.

Bits that worry the shit out of me - oil and gas, and cyber attacks. That could fuck us up insanely effectively and insanely quickly - looking back to the NHS cyber collapse in the past and how much more difficult that would be to resolve with so many clinicians now working out of their home on laptops that would need to be recalled back in etc. Plus Russian bots poking away at social media trying to stir up panic (and aided by ordinary people who are fucking terrified).

Yes we are in danger imo. And I personally think it will be a cyber attack. No sense of right and wrong, only power.

It's complicated basically, and I don't think we have any business getting involved in this war. In fact I don't think we have any business getting into any wars that don't directly affect us, as sad as that is for people around the world who cannot protect themselves

As we are not anywhere near close enough to being self sufficient, we don’t have the luxury of not getting involved. We’ve sold most of our national infrastructure and assets to overseas companies, we have not invested in home grown technology and have just encouraged foreign investment which means we have little control over a lot of our economy.

That is why our government is so easily bought by the likes of Russian donors.

So sadly we are involved whether we like it or not.

@jytdtysrht

Yes we are in danger imo. And I personally think it will be a cyber attack. No sense of right and wrong, only power.

What harm would a cyber attack really do though? A day or two of systems down..it would just be an annoyance.

@Iggly yeah I understand it's clearly a lot more complicated than I can comprehend. I guess my point is more about trying to see this from Putin's POV rather than dismissing / categorising him as a willy waving power hungry lunatic etc.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet
That's what a cyber attack is capable of doing if it gets into things like control systems for infrastructure. It's not just computers that sit on your desk - it has the potential to hit absolutely fucking everything really.

@Valhalla17

If Boris keeps making threats then it's highly likely we will be nuked.

It's not highly likely we will be nuked ffs. Putin won't just tank all political relations and take out half of Europe's economy because Boris threatened him with sanction.

Too much Russian wealth in London for it to be nuked is my view. Cyber attacks are a possibility and I understand that the BoE has been asking financial institutions on their readiness to withstand cyber attacks (although to be fair, ongoing improvements to cyber security is business as usual for London financial institutions, so I wouldn’t say there is an immediate risk and no need to worry!)

Depends on the definition of danger.

Russia and China have the world over a barrel because of their military / nuclear capabilities. Therefore they can pretty much demand anything "or we'll nuke you" / "cyberattack you into chaos and destabilise your infrastructure".

Meanwhile the people of Ukraine suffer horribly while governments do cost / benefit analysis and have to submit to fears of escalation.

It's a shit show whichever way you look at it.

I said yesterday the things that will really worry me on the physical danger front are if they test air raid sirens and if world leaders vanish to their bunkers.