I had been viewing this as sabre-rattling by Putin. He does it periodically. But I’ve been wondering why now, and I think it’s to do with Germany. Merkel would have pulled the EU, NATO and (if she’d been bothered, because I don’t think it would make much difference either way these days) the U.K. together in a single, unified force militarily, diplomatically, economically. That’s a lot for Russia to stand up to. Russia is getting close to China but there’s still a long way to go before that relationship is strong and secure. Russia would still be alone against all of the developed Western world and she needs to build her credentials if she’s looking at a partnership with China.
Schulz isn’t capable of doing a Merkel. Tbf to him he’s only had the job for two minutes, but this is the weakness. Germany gets 80% of its natural gas from Russia (not it’s only energy source though), and Russia wants to extend those pipelines throughout continental Europe to secure energy dependency. (The US is shipping natural gas over but there’s no way it can provide by sea the sheer volume required by Germany.) Russia has to pass through the Ukraine to do that. The Ukraine is merely in Russia’s way, and far from being a benevolent grandparent Russia sees the Ukraine as an annoying truanting teenager it needs to handle and train to do its bidding. Once through the Ukraine, it’s but a Russian hop, skip and jump into the EU heartland. Crimea was a foreshadowing of what Russia has planned (its access to sea trading, rather than energy in that case).
I think this could end up being more than sabre-rattling. Biden, Johnson, Schulz - they’re all weak, at home and internationally. Biden is the only one with any experience of high-level, international statesmanship - the man can’t get through a press conference on home territory without messing up. Macron had a go but c’mon, he’s young enough to have Putin for a dad and so naive I think he’s actually terrified of Putin as an individual. It’s a perfect storm for Putin. If he can’t win this thing now, with these muppets as his opponents….well, he’s going to look a tool going up to China, isn’t he? I have a horrible feeling he’s going to make a go of this.
Those poor people.