To be worried about war

[Ciaram55]

The stand off between Russia and the west over Ukraine. I can't see either side backing down. I'm just so worried now. I know that worrying doesn't help but it seems to be a very tense time right now.

We've been here and a lot closer many times

@AM2476

Why would Russia want to ‘turn off’ their lucrative gas supply to a very big customer ? Especially when economically Russia isn’t particularly stable and hasn’t been for a while. Nothing will happen with the U.K. most likely.

It's a seller's market.

@Curiousmouse Putin said months ago it was the end of cheap gas and wheat, for export.

@AutomaticMoon I know. Today the guardian says it'll go up beyond that, to stratospheric, if there is a war.

Make no mistake, war will come. It has to, because it always does

But in the past there were conventional wars. We can't afford to have another big war because of the nuclear threat? Mutual Assured Destruction will surely prevail.

We are going from one crock of shite to another

@Ciaram55

Make no mistake, war will come. It has to, because it always does

But in the past there were conventional wars. We can't afford to have another big war because of the nuclear threat? Mutual Assured Destruction will surely prevail.

FWIW a conventional war/invasion on the far eastern side of Europe, whilst definitely not a good thing, would not in itself inevitably lead to the release of nuclear weapons….MAD would not surely prevail.

The biggest worry would be if it escalated though, where it might get past the point of no return?

Nobody is going back to MAD like we had in the early eighties.
There's just not enough profit in it.

MAD still applies. The fact there'll be no winners is still just as relevant today.

It “still applies”, yes, but you need to understand when it might still apply.

We are (thankfully) not in the really grim old days of what was known as “tripwire” when the stated NATO response to any Soviet incursion into West Germany was an all out release of nuclear weapons, and we’ve even moved on (thankfully) from the only slightly less grim old days of a policy called flexible response where nuclear weapons might have been released if NATO forces and as a result entire NATO nations/their capital cities were in danger of being overrun by Warsaw Pact Forces.

But in the past there were conventional wars. We can't afford to have another big war because of the nuclear threat? Mutual Assured Destruction will surely prevail.

Didn't stop Vietnam.
Or invasion of Afghanistan
Or Gulf war 1991
Or Gulf War 2003

We weren't directly fighting the Russians in any of those wars though.

[quote Alexandra2001]@notimagain Its not possible to write a thesis on the rights n wrongs of Russian and Western foreign policy in the ME on here.

I was original replying to poster who put the blame on the Russia the Aggressor.... and its simply not true, the west is/has been mired in terrible wars and equally terrible decisions.

To be clear Putin needs to be stood up to and the 'west is weak, FFS he shot down an airliner and we did nothing, nothing at all, he has poisoned critics here in the UK, our response was to allow more Russian money to fund the Tory party, you couldn't make it up!

Yesterday Raab tells the Russians that no UK troops will be used in Ukraine, should there be an invasion - why not give a Green light to Putin Mr Raab?

BUT to avoid war we also have to respect and understand Russian fears, NATO was set up to counteract the Soviets, USSR has long gone and there is no reason to have NATO member states on the borders of Russia.[/quote]
There is ABSOLUTELY a need for NATO to still be in place. I would call Russia's continued incursion into independent states and open threats to invade the Baltics again because he never wanted to let them go a very clear reason for those states to band together in defence. Maybe if Russia stopped invading and threatening to invade independent states, the threat of war would recede?

Make no mistake, war will come. It has to, because it always does

No it doesn’t.

Cuban Missile Crisis
Russia invaded Afghanistan
Gadaffi lobbed some missile in the 80’s
Conflict between India and Pakistan in early 00’s

@C152

Agree with that, I am certainly not calling for an end to NATO…

However we also need to understand how something’s are perceived in Russia, or at least some in that country.