To be worried about war

[Ciaram55]

The stand off between Russia and the west over Ukraine. I can't see either side backing down. I'm just so worried now. I know that worrying doesn't help but it seems to be a very tense time right now.

@AutomaticMoon

I’m worried about China too. Their president has been cracking down in recent times, some think he’s preparing for war.

Agree, whole cultures destroyed/re educated but we will still off shore manufacturing and send an Olympics team there.

@MrsTerryPratchett The revolution in Romania was televised, it’s on youtube if anyone’s interested! It was Christmas time and as a Christmas gift, the army lynched Ceausescu and Elena in the street like dogs and it was shown on tv and children celebrated.

@Alexandra2001 And the way Taiwan is treated in the politics media is vile, I’ve seen someone from WHO apologise for calling Taiwan a country and all sorts of CCP submissive behaviour. The CCP is a vile organisation and they’re destroying that whole continent with the hatred they indoctrinate.

Are you honestly claiming Russia has no involvement in that region?? And then using it to justify moves on East Europe in the name of a false united people??

@Alexandra2001 Even in China there’s power shortages leading to factories only opening part time, yet we’re all held ransom because we cannot/will not manufacture anything here.

@Alexandra2001

Ah i see, that means its ok to launch genocide on the Houthis (by denying them food, water, medicines and shelter plus trying to kill as many as possible) and arm the Saudis with the latest British weapons.

Care to give us the whole story about which countries are up to their ears in fueling that war?

For example who is supplying the Houthis with weaponry such as the Scud derivatives (remind me again where the Scud originated BTW), the ones fired in the direction of Riyadh? Any thoughts on how they were provisioned and who shipped them into country?

I do think it’s fair enough for you to point out the Uk have supplied some weapons, OTOH it’s not at all reasonable/fair to try and paint a picture that presents the UK (and presumably by association) other western powers as being the only ones involved in the arms trade to both sides in that conflict

@notimagain Its not possible to write a thesis on the rights n wrongs of Russian and Western foreign policy in the ME on here.

I was original replying to poster who put the blame on the Russia the Aggressor.... and its simply not true, the west is/has been mired in terrible wars and equally terrible decisions.

To be clear Putin needs to be stood up to and the 'west is weak, FFS he shot down an airliner and we did nothing, nothing at all, he has poisoned critics here in the UK, our response was to allow more Russian money to fund the Tory party, you couldn't make it up!

Yesterday Raab tells the Russians that no UK troops will be used in Ukraine, should there be an invasion - why not give a Green light to Putin Mr Raab?

BUT to avoid war we also have to respect and understand Russian fears, NATO was set up to counteract the Soviets, USSR has long gone and there is no reason to have NATO member states on the borders of Russia.

BUT to avoid war we also have to respect and understand Russian fears,

Absolutely agree…I remember many many years ago (late 70s) being shown a map drawn/using a projection which showed the world from the Russian/Soviet POV which depicted all the threats had faced over the years and continued to face at that time.

Their need to have buffer States is understandable, the problem is what to do if that independent State actually doesn’t want to be a buffer???

We need wise heads to prevail.

@notimagain Thats why we have diplomates and wise heads of state... or should have!!!

I very much feel that allowing the possibility of Ukraine to join NATO is provocation, equally Putin cannot be allowed to use military might and gas supplies to blackmail the 'west into giving in & allowing Ukraine to go the same way as Belarus.

I hope, as reported in the press last week, the Americans will take membership off the table in return for troop withdrawals, with the promise of far greater military presence should he not comply.

Hard to believe 14000 troops have died in fighting on the Ukraine over the 8 years, yet we ve all been pre occupied with Brexit, Putin did indeed pull a master stroke there didn't he.

Here's a useful aid to picturing how big countries are. Notice how small China is compared to Africa. Now remember how for all our lives the US, USSR and EU have done absolutely nothing towards a pan-African union. In fact, quite the reverse.

I can't recommend this book highly enough

Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need to Know About Global Politics

By Tim Marshall

it goes some way towards explaining Russias nervousness about Ukraine.

It also says that if you live in the US you basically got a golden ticket in life. And if you live in Africa you got the wooden spoon.

And from a geographical perspective, if we Europeans could just stop fighting for a second, we'd have had it all too. Luckily there was never any danger of that. Can you imagine having had it easy ? Phew. Thank goodness for xenophobia, nationalism, and flags.

www.visualcapitalist.com/map-true-size-of-africa/

@Cheekypeach

I have to be honest and say the last 5 years has left me numb to even shocking world events. I try to avoid the news now, there’s nothing I can do to influence it & I want to enjoy life in the meantime.

Exactly. We have fuck all control over anything so best to ignore and just enjoy the parts of our lives that we can exert influence over 🤷‍♀️

Exactly. We have fuck all control over anything so best to ignore and just enjoy the parts of our lives that we can exert influence over

I imagine my grandparents saying that in 1939 and my great grandparents saying it in 1914.

Russia has a lot of infrastructure in Ukraine, so likes to keep it. Gas, pipelines, ports and other resources are critical.
It is almost like we are reaching the limits of growrh.

Why would Russia want to ‘turn off’ their lucrative gas supply to a very big customer ? Especially when economically Russia isn’t particularly stable and hasn’t been for a while. Nothing will happen with the U.K. most likely.

@Lockedoorsopen

Same here, it feels like China and Russia have come out of no where and every one is like ...'whats for dinner tonight then'

I have been watching whats been going on with China, Taiwan and US and now Russia doing this to the Ukraine and U.K getting involved and it is making me wonder if this is the start of WW3

Agreed. I've been feeling like WW3 was on the horizon for a while now. It's a scary thought.

it feels like China and Russia have come out of no where

What planet have you been on for the past 60 years ?

@AM2476

Why would Russia want to ‘turn off’ their lucrative gas supply to a very big customer ? Especially when economically Russia isn’t particularly stable and hasn’t been for a while. Nothing will happen with the U.K. most likely.

Because gas is a limited resource. They can sell it now and make money or sell it later and make more money or save it for their own use later.

@Ciaram55

I just don't think we should be in that area. Surely it's understandable that Russia feels threatened. We should get out and defuse the situation.i hate the worry of all this.

You are not in that area. There isn't a single NATO base in Ukraine.

For the benefit of those seeing the sky falling in whilst a conflict in the Ukraine is not a happy thought options other than WW3 are possible/much more likely.

Putin is a pragmatist and many think an incursion as far as the Dnieper River, perhaps control of the coast to the west of the Dnieper estuary and a neutral government in Kiev would give him what he wants….

Go west of the Dnieper, especially towards Kiev itself and for all sorts - of reasons (logistics, demographics at a regional level) it gets much more difficult for the Russian Army and long term they could face trying to control an insurgency..and even the Russians learnt some lessons in Afghanistan.

Russia vs Ukraine would be an absolute bloodbath for the Ukraine, however Russia vs Nato the odds are very much not in Russias favour. I can't understand those who say that Russia and China have come out of nowhere, its been blindingly obvious for years that they are the two we need to worry about. The middle east and North Korea are just minor diversions.

As Machiavelli wrote, "there is no avoiding war; it can only be postponed to the advantage of others."

The west is getting to the point where we will regret having allowed Putin and China to have expanded their influence in the way they have. I'm not sure if it was ignorance or arrogance that has led successive world leaders to ignore what was happening in those countries since the early to mid 90s. Perhaps it was just wishful thinking. It's too late to prevent war now, it's an inevitability, it's just a shame we didn't take pre-emptive action when our advantage was at its greatest - or, perhaps, our disadvantage was at its lowest.

Make no mistake, war will come. It has to, because it always does.

The Times today says that Russia has threatened to weaponise gas, and ministers say that it will push gas prices to an even higher, much higher peak.

@MorningStarling

The west is getting to the point where we will regret having allowed Putin and China to have expanded their influence in the way they have. I'm not sure if it was ignorance or arrogance that has led successive world leaders to ignore what was happening in those countries since the early to mid 90s. Perhaps it was just wishful thinking.

Yep..that wall came down, Warsaw Pact dissolved, everybody loved that nice Mr Gorbachev and lo and behold lots of talk of peace dividends and turning guns into ploughshares, etc…

Result - Cuts in Defence spending left, right and centre…and TBH all very understandable at the time (early 1990s).

Fast forward to about ten years ago and it was obvious to anybody paying attention that the Russians and Chinese were massively improving their conventional forces and they had “hard” men as leaders and they had global aspirations.

Trouble was a lot of people weren’t paying attention… many continued to disagree with defence spending on political and ethical grounds and as a result some politicians saw talking about potential threats and spending more on defence, or even maintaining current levels of spending as a vote loser…

I’m not sure I’d agree with defence spending on a U.S. level but the low level of spending by Europe (and I include the UK in that) has certainly helped encourage the despots.

@MorningStarling

Disagree, war isn't inevitable at all, the demands of Putin are not unrealistic and if we focused on trade and diplomatic efforts as much as we do talking up war, we could still turn this around.

China especially has a huge pop. and struggles to control it, war could split China into pieces.
Russia needs trade and foreign investment but it also, like the West, needs an enemy.

But completely agree, cuts in our military has been a disaster, many bases have been turned into housing and delays in procurement has meant advantages we had in equipment has gone.

@MorningStarling

As Machiavelli wrote, "there is no avoiding war; it can only be postponed to the advantage of others."

The west is getting to the point where we will regret having allowed Putin and China to have expanded their influence in the way they have. I'm not sure if it was ignorance or arrogance that has led successive world leaders to ignore what was happening in those countries since the early to mid 90s. Perhaps it was just wishful thinking. It's too late to prevent war now, it's an inevitability, it's just a shame we didn't take pre-emptive action when our advantage was at its greatest - or, perhaps, our disadvantage was at its lowest.

Make no mistake, war will come. It has to, because it always does.

They’re proxy wars and they have never stopped. Syria for example.