That New Zealand's strategy has failed

[JudesBiggestFan]

And they will have to start the long and painful process of learning to live with Covid? I spoke to my friend in NZ earlier and he was in shock at being back in lockdown. He said they really felt they'd defeated the virus and this has just come out of nowhere. I feel for him but an airborne virus...it can't be stopped. And the cost of trying is too high. Or do they still have a chance of beating the virus?

*in having, not I’m having!

You do know covid is here to stay? And so your MIQ use will be constant and indefinite. Secondly you have no addressed my first post choc that directed you to the post from a NZ lawyer. How do you not know it is mandatory to go to a MIQ if you test positive?

I’m a different choc, I think that post was from chocoholic!

I don’t know the detail of MIQ and if it’s mandatory and I’m not going to pretend that I do. I do accept its draconian either way. But as I say, if it avoids extended lockdowns that’s the lesser of two evils.

@stepupandbecounted

You do know covid is here to stay? And so your MIQ use will be constant and indefinite. Secondly you have no addressed my first post choc that directed you to the post from a NZ lawyer. How do you not know it is mandatory to go to a MIQ if you test positive?

Step up, you have not addressed my posts about the reality of MIQ either.

It was nothing like prison yet you persist in saying it is. Where are you getting your information?

I think I was lucky when I visited NZ that I met some great people, open minded and curious. When I read this thread I do not see any evidence of anyone that is open minded, willing to consider other views or willing to challenge any kind of fixed thinking. Maybe covid has made you collectively more insular and defensive or maybe it is just the people on here that do not seem to be able to see that other people's views are just that, you don't need to berate them for feeling differently to you.

You sound under siege and in the bunker to be honest, unwilling to come out into the light. Hostages to the state so to speak. Even in our darkest hour of lockdown we were still able to consider the views of others.

@stepupandbecounted

I think I was lucky when I visited NZ that I met some great people, open minded and curious. When I read this thread I do not see any evidence of anyone that is open minded, willing to consider other views or willing to challenge any kind of fixed thinking. Maybe covid has made you collectively more insular and defensive or maybe it is just the people on here that do not seem to be able to see that other people's views are just that, you don't need to berate them for feeling differently to you.

You sound under siege and in the bunker to be honest, unwilling to come out into the light. Hostages to the state so to speak. Even in our darkest hour of lockdown we were still able to consider the views of others.

I'm British. So, whatever.

Again, no rebuttal to my posts about the reality of spending 2 weeks in MIQ.

My daughter recently returned to Sydney and back in lockdown after a few weeks freedom ☹ It beggars belief that Oz and NZ didn't get the vaccine i to people's arms asap while their borders were closed and covid cases mostly zero 😡 They would have been the absolute standout countries if they had done that. Of course there was also a lot of complacency and people saying they weren't having Astrazeneca, until the virus actually hit them personally, but I also think the governments decided not to fund development of vaccines and thus be first in with orders (except their own in Oz, which was scrapped) because they smugly thought they could sit tight and pick the winners later.

@GinAndTopic

My daughter recently returned to Sydney and back in lockdown after a few weeks freedom ☹ It beggars belief that Oz and NZ didn't get the vaccine i to people's arms asap while their borders were closed and covid cases mostly zero 😡 They would have been the absolute standout countries if they had done that. Of course there was also a lot of complacency and people saying they weren't having Astrazeneca, until the virus actually hit them personally, but I also think the governments decided not to fund development of vaccines and thus be first in with orders (except their own in Oz, which was scrapped) because they smugly thought they could sit tight and pick the winners later.

I don't think there are any winners or losers here. We'll all losers because none of us have escaped unscathed by the pandemic. Every government has made mistakes so far and we still have a long way to go. I can't imagine any one of us on this forum could honestly feel smug when we look at what's happened in India, Brazil and so many other countries. The global death toll is devastating. We're all incredibly lucky to be living where we are compared with the alternatives. Let's not forget that.

@maplemay11 I meant picking the winners in terms of vaccines, rather than putting money into several development teams in the beginning. And to be fair, I maybe shouldn't include NZ in that, I don't know much about its economy, but Oz is a wealthy country. But I agree of course, many mistakes made, by UK most of all, and we are still now in a far better state than many other countries.

*@GinAndTopic * Oh sorry, my misunderstanding. Yes, I agree. When it comes to vaccines there have definitely been clear winners and some lost along the way as you would expect with any R&D. Not great for the countries who took a gamble on those though, as we have seen in Europe.

@maplemay11 Actually to my mind, I think it was good that wealthy countries stumped up funding for the necessary trials and errors of finding a vaccine for this thing, and what a monumental success it was in such a relatively short time! Of course the quid pro quo (?!) was they got first dibs, but it was a gamble how much would be lost on failures.

@stepupandbecounted I don't think you understand the reality of MIQ. Literally no one is spending weeks in there! It's 14 days for most people unless you test positive or refuse to be tested in which case it's 28 days max. The NZ government has been clear that as part of the Covid exit plan its use will be phased out, beginning with NZers returning from short trips. Apart from anything else it's simply not affordable for a country to incarcerate a large proportion of its population for any length of time.

Also, MIQ is arguably a lot more equitable that the UK system where people are required to isolate at home. The fact is not everyone can afford to isolate, nor does everyone live in a big house in which it's possible to avoid contact with other residents. Actual compliance with UK isolation rules is poor. In NZ if you go into MIQ your food and accommodation are provided by the state.

I have a number of friends and family members who have done MIQ and no one has minded doing it, let alone suffered mental ill health. I do know a lot of people whose mental health has suffered as a result of the much longer UK lockdowns.

I meant to say literally no one is spending months in there, obviously 14 days is weeks

Where did I say it wasn't improved? Don't put words in my mouth. My understanding (happy to be proven wrong if you've got the evidence) is that we don't routinely run out of ICU beds in the summer. In the winter, on occasion, but not in July and August. My region is one of the worst hit and as a region we have had no ICU beds available on several different occasions. That's not gratuitous negativity, that's the fact - or are you in fact arguing that our healthcare system is just fine and functioning in exactly the same way as it would normally be doing in July of any other year? I absolutely stand by my point, life may appear more normal, but it doesn't mean it is. I wish it were, truly.

ice So what happens if I test positive, do my 14 day stint in MIQ I arrive home and my child tests positive? I can't let a 10 year old isolate alone, so I have to go with them right?

So now I spend another 14 days in MIQ. If I don't have anyone willing to look after my children we are all potentially staying in MIQ for four weeks. We get home and my second child tests positive. In every family I know the parents and children did NOT all catch covid on the same day, they were ill as is normal with a virus one after another overlapping by a few days maximum.

Do you now see you could be spending far far longer there if you have a bigger family. Have you tried to keep children entertained in those conditions in such a tiny space? Particularly very young active toddlers bouncing from the walls? A day would feel like a week, a week would feel like a year.

And you say the maximum time is 28 days, so what if you are testing positive after that? We know of a number of people testing positive for months. Some people for longer. There was one poor guy who tested positive here for ten months, what happens then? Can he just go home, I doubt it.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/24/the-longest-of-covids-the-man-infected-for-10-months

The problems are yet to really start with MIQ, you only have a handful of cases, but once you start getting thousands you are going to see the problems emerging with capacity, with families and mental health and perhaps it will become more obvious then why so many of us are against this method of control.

There is also the point that people are catching covid twice. I know of two families that had covid in the winter, and then the following summer. I know of one family with a medic that have had covid three times, they caught different strains. You can still test positive with a vaccine, so you may not be limited to one stint in MIQ either.

I am amazed you have ANY support for a MIQ in the 21st century I truly am astonished you have all accepted it.

It's a lie cos it doesn't fit with your view? Literally, a 10 second Google of UK black alert shows that this has been happening throughout the summer.

@NickiC85

Where did I say it wasn't improved? Don't put words in my mouth. My understanding (happy to be proven wrong if you've got the evidence) is that we don't routinely run out of ICU beds in the summer. In the winter, on occasion, but not in July and August. My region is one of the worst hit and as a region we have had no ICU beds available on several different occasions. That's not gratuitous negativity, that's the fact - or are you in fact arguing that our healthcare system is just fine and functioning in exactly the same way as it would normally be doing in July of any other year? I absolutely stand by my point, life may appear more normal, but it doesn't mean it is. I wish it were, truly.

Is this to me?

No we don’t routinely run out of ICU beds in the summer. We haven’t run of ICU beds this summer. ICU beds are always looked at nationally, and we do send patients out of region in the summer. That your region is full isn’t the same as running out of ICU beds - a patient in your region needing ICU will be treated, out of region if necessary.

or are you in fact arguing that our healthcare system is just fine and functioning in exactly the same way as it would normally be doing in July of any other year?

See my point about covid still putting pressure on the NHS. As it will do for at least the medium term. I also said working in the NHS isn’t normal.

None of this alters the fact that day to day life is restriction free and largely normal for most people in the UK.

We are in a situation which I in the North West, hit by severe local restrictions for most of the pandemic because of high local rates, could only have dreamed of last Autumn. Too many people have suffered and died along the way and I have plenty of criticism of our government but work aside, life if pretty much normal for me and most people I know (obviously not all).

@stepupandbecounted

Really? You don't think MIQ will be used for anything else? Why not? Flu kills people as well, so do lots of other things. Why should it only apply to covid?

Do you not see you are opening up a whole way of life where the state chooses whether you are incarcerated, whether you are free, what illnesses do or do qualify. No one seems to grasp the power of this kind of legislation.

@stepupandbecounted But why mention HIV? The idea of incarcerating all those living with HIV went out with the Ark pretty much - or at least the 80s. Are you aware of how things have progressed since?

As said above, with any virus it's about raising awareness, prevention, testing and treatment.

@stepupandbecounted you are applying your experience of the Covid epidemic in the UK to NZ and you don't seem able to comprehend that the situation there is completely different. What they have is months of no community cases and now a relatively small outbreak with thorough contact tracing. That's why they are using the MIQ approach, which is a blanket approach is only possible where rates of community transmission remain very low. If transmission rates increased to a point where it became likely that multiple members of a family would test positive at different times ("thousands of cases" as you put it), there is no way that NZ would be able to maintain the MIQ approach for all positive cases, it would be unaffordable. Possibly they might continue to allow it as an option for people who would find it difficult to isolate properly at home.

Also, I believe that if one member of a family tests positive the family has the option (repeat, option) to go into quarantine together, which would clearly be a good idea if you are a single parent with no one else to look after your kids.

Basically, the situation you are describing would be extremely unlikely to arise, and I find it odd that you seem so personally invested in this if you have no personal connection with NZ.

None of this alters the fact that day to day life is restriction free and largely normal for most people in the UK

Yes that is correct slip and I would say normal life is even better than normal because we all appreciate it much more after the lockdown.
Under no circumstances whatsoever can I see an MIQ being acceptable here, not even in the worst moments, there is no way people would have stood for it. Or the borders being permanently closed, nor the idea that you can't even have a takeaway?! You have accepted so much that other countries, in Europe especially, would see riots on the streets for even the merest suggestion of incarceration due to testing positive.

It is wildly over reacting to what is just a cold for most people. You will come to this all differently in time, you are caught up in fear and in the middle of a brainwashing lockdown. In time, you will look back and see it was way too much. Most of us already feel like that about our first lockdown now, but we are other side of the pandemic admittedly.

I wonder why you think I don't have a personal connection to NZ firstly, that is a pretty huge and incorrect assumption to make.

Secondly why do you think you will avoid Delta spreading as it has done in every other country in the world. I am genuinely interested to know why you are so confident that whole families will not get ill in succession because your personal experience of it has been so limited?

Why not listen to others, we have been through it, and you can't escape forever. As much as you would like to - and we would too. You can still test positive with the vaccines, you can still die with the vaccines. There is no cure all solution so at some point, you are either going to have to ease your zero covid policy and learn to live with covid or continue to live in lockdowns indefinitely. You have some hard choices to make soon. Probably sooner than you think.

"Not great for the countries who took a gamble on those though, as we have seen in Europe."
But as The Guardian reports:

Six EU states overtake UK Covid vaccination rates as Britain’s rollout slows
Malta, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark and Ireland overtake UK in fully jabbed percentages.

And in France many 12 year olds have been jabbed as my friend in France informs me.