[quote TheNorthWestPawsage]I've seen a few news articles and Twitter threads about the possibility of this ending up a Dems 'own goal'. What's your view from the ground Across?
Apathetic voters could hand California recall to Republicans: ‘Folks seem unaware’.
Gavin Newsom remains popular but Democrats appear far less likely than Republicans to vote in the election
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/25/california-governor-recall-gavin-newsom-larry-elder?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other[/quote]
Last I heard it was somewhere near 52% nay / 48% yea with a +/- 4% margin of error. At this point, I think there's no way to predict the outcome.
Larry Elder is putting lots of what I consider misleading ads on air. IMO He's trying to pull a fast one by NOT clearly stating he's a Republican anywhere during the ad and is also using Joe's campaign slogan 'with a twist' ("This election is a 'battle for the soul of California'") which to me is trying to infer that he's a Democrat. The other two candidates with ads are clearly stating they're Republicans.
Elder makes Trump look like FDR when it comes to social programs and the pandemic. And if Elder is chosen, CA is in a whole world of hurt. He's anti-vaxx, anti-mask, anti-immigration, anti-social safety net (not that we have much of one). Our only saving grace is that both houses of the CA legislature are majority Dem, as is the Lt Gov and most of the appointed state officials. Of course, the appointed officials bit probably won't last.
The Dems are doing virtually NO 'marketing' on this recall which IMO is a huge mistake.
Bottom line, do I think it's going to succeed? I think it's more likely than not.