To think Scotland will now get their independence in next few years after election result?

[wishiwasabraverman]

Just that really...SNP did absolutely brilliantly. Shows that the majority of the Scottish people are behind them. Am I right in thinking they will get their independence in a couple of years?

Oh and I would agree about the Green vote. I have a very Green neighbour who (stupidly) votes Green but is very anti independence

And you clearly don't understand how the Scottish election system works. Getting a majority in Holyrood is nigh-on impossible.
Why is that (i.e. impossible)? A genuine question. Is it due to the second vote system?

I would be surprised to see indyref2 within the next few years but do not doubt that it will happen.

Whether it's voted in favour for or against is anyone's guess. The problem with the last referendum was the no campaigns key strategy was being part of EU and that didn't pan out very well.

Alot of people who I know that voted no first time round would vote yes this time. I dare say there is a swing from yes to no also but I really believe it would be alot tighter in numbers this time round.

I think some people believe independence is the answer to every problem 🤔 it won't be and will create new ones. It is a focus for some to blame all negative things on the union or Westminster. In reality I think it would be a financial mistake.

A massive diversion from dealing with the day to day problems

@forinborin

And you clearly don't understand how the Scottish election system works. Getting a majority in Holyrood is nigh-on impossible. Why is that (i.e. impossible)? A genuine question. Is it due to the second vote system?

Essentially, the more constituency seats a party wins makes it progressively harder for a party to pick up list seats. The formula for allocating list seats is based around dividing each party’s regional vote by one more than the number of seats it has won so far in that region, including constituencies.

So basically, in a given region if a party wins most of the FPTP constituency seats it becomes increasingly harder to pick up the PR list seats.

@ARoseByAnyOtherNameIsStillAs

I think some people believe independence is the answer to every problem 🤔 it won't be and will create new ones. It is a focus for some to blame all negative things on the union or Westminster. In reality I think it would be a financial mistake.

A massive diversion from dealing with the day to day problems

Perhaps, but subsitute Brexit in that statement - which the UK government plowed on with during the pandemic - and what is the difference, exactly?

The fact is, for many people (as with Brexit) this isn't about the economy, it's a far more emotional decision than that.

Indeed it is about emotions and for some leaving Westminster and the union no matter whether financially beneficial or not. How much money would another one cost to set up and run whilst others things to do. Some people just love to hate.

@Penners99

How will an independent Scotland finance itself?

How do Finland, Slovakia, Norway, Luxembourg, Ireland and all those other 'small' countries finance themselves?

To quote from this Libertarian website
libertarianinstitute.org/articles/small-countries-are-better-theyre-often-richer-and-safer-than-big-countries/

But by no measure is Scotland a “poor” country. It may be poorer than England, but Scotland’s GDP per capita puts it about halfway down the rankings of all Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. That means it’s similar to France and Japan by this measure.

If Scotland is relatively less well off than many other rich Western nations, there is no reason to assume that this is due to its size. With 5.4 million people, Scotland is about the same size as New Zealand and Finland, and only slightly smaller than Denmark. None of these countries are “barely scraping by.”

Libertarianism, I'll add, is about as far from me politically as you can get.

@PicsInRed

Show me the money.

It won't be their money, that's for sure! Nicola's batty list of 'promises' it utterly impossible, even with their over-generous funding in comparison with England's funding.

@SteveArnottsCodeine

Yes and good luck to them. I’m English but if I was in their position I wouldn’t want to be in the union anymore either.

I'd be quite content to be just England but I think that's an opinion not allowed.

@UrAWizHarry

Thank you Harry, you're a true wizard! Understood now. So not impossible mathematically, but in order to get a seat majority, they really need to have a very convincing popular vote mandate (depending on the constituencies composition, but I guesstimate in excess of 60%).

Am also a bit hmm, at the " oh we can't afford it" bit. 65 countries have managed perfectly well without the UK babysitting them.

Sure, maybe in 40 years we will prove we can afford it but getting there, for absolute no benefit other than ideology will be an absolute shit show and entire generations will suffer financially.

If SNP want to prove we can do it, even if financially it might be tough sometimes, they need to actually start improving the country now. They are failing in pretty much every metric. But that suits them because keeping things shit and blaming Westminster is the only way they can convince their base to vote for them.

@youshallnotpass9

There was a " Velvet divorce" in 1993, when Czechoslavakia split. It just happened and hardly anyone noticed for years

I bloody did, on the day they split, I had just finished a massive project on Europe, including all the countries, capitals and pretty pictures of the flags. Its one of my earliest memories storming down the stairs and demanding they stay together for another week.

Anyway as you all were

That sounds like me at College, I had just finished my long essay as a part of my final assessment on Bertrand Russell, our greatest living Mathematician, the morning after I'd finished it he died! We once paid a lot of money for a limited edition signed Lowry print and I commented 'If he dies it'll be worth a lot more' two days later he did!

And you clearly don't understand how the Scottish election system works. Getting a majority in Holyrood is nigh-on impossible

Except SNP did have a majority.

entire generations will suffer financially.

So it's ALL about money and financial considerations? Nothing to do with well-being, community, shared ideals, common goals and well... being happy. Just money?

In the World Happiness Reports from the UN small countries always come out as better places to live than big countries

@MintyMabel

And you clearly don't understand how the Scottish election system works. Getting a majority in Holyrood is nigh-on impossible

Except SNP did have a majority.

Exactly. They had a majority in 2011 which quite justifiably triggered indyref1. They lost that, lost their majority and have never regained it therefore no indyref2 required.

I think if there is a vote for independence, it may have a huge effect on the finances of both the rest of the UK as well as Scotland. Presumably Scotland would need to create its own civil service, DVLA, passport office, social security etc. Any UK Public sector depts would have to move back to UK, would Scotland create its own MOD? Who would unwrite the currency? The nuclear submarine bases would have to move to UK too.
It all sounds very expensive for both the UK and Scotland if Scotland does vote yes.

@Graffitiqueen

Still missing the point.

The popular vote means NOTHING. As I've already pointed out, the SNP had less of a % of the popular vote on 2011 so by your logic Indyref1 should not have happened.

There is a pro-Independence majority in terms of seats. THAT is what matters.

I notice there is a new mantra from the Nationalists
"Independence is normal - quote other small successful countries"
Yes Scotland could be a successful country in the long term , depending on its economic policies , however it would take a great deal of financial hardship to get there
There are numerous serious issues to be addressed and discussed fully- I think when this happens most people will vote No once more
Issues
What Currency ?
How much to set up a central bank , with lender of last resort ?
How long to take to get membership of the EU- it is not an automatic right?
Debt / deficit and the affect on services
The loss of Barnet formula
The potential hard border with rUK , which would put up a barrier to trade , with by far our largest trading partner . Most people do not want customs tariffs on goods and handling charges.
There are numerous people in the border who work /live on either side of the border- are they going to have to show their passports each day
simply to go to work
What will happen to mortgages , which are in sterling
Likewise pensions?
A lot of businesses with leave and go to rUK - if that is their biggest share of the market
I can see a valid emotional argument , but the short term economics make no sense
I will stay to vote No again , I am Scottish and wish to stay in Scotland in a United kingdom , if Yes wins we will be leaving Scotland shortly afterwards- I am not prepared to lose my livelihood

[quote UrAWizHarry]@Graffitiqueen

Still missing the point.

The popular vote means NOTHING. As I've already pointed out, the SNP had less of a % of the popular vote on 2011 so by your logic Indyref1 should not have happened.

There is a pro-Independence majority in terms of seats. THAT is what matters.[/quote]
Respectfully you are the one missing the point. If it is really seats that matter as you insist then there's less of a mandate than in 2011.

[quote forinborin]@UrAWizHarry

Thank you Harry, you're a true wizard! Understood now. So not impossible mathematically, but in order to get a seat majority, they really need to have a very convincing popular vote mandate (depending on the constituencies composition, but I guesstimate in excess of 60%).[/quote]
Basically they need to have both a very strong list vote and to miss out on a number of FPTP seats to the second placed list party all in the same region.

The entire system was basically designed to ensure that no party could get a majority and it really was a case of the stars aligning in a very specific way that allowed it to happen in 2011.

It’s all very well saying it’s about the happiness of the population etc etc etc but everyone knows that has to be financed.

Given a 3rd of Scotland’s funding comes from Westminster exactly where is that difference going to come from? Tax rises?

Scotland will have to create its own currency, the EU are unlikely to want them there and if they do join it will be under EU terms, so what? You leave one union to join another?

@TheSandman

entire generations will suffer financially.

So it's ALL about money and financial considerations? Nothing to do with well-being, community, shared ideals, common goals and well... being happy. Just money?

In the World Happiness Reports from the UN small countries always come out as better places to live than big countries

Not all about money, but if your community is run down (like most currently are), your health system is run down (like ours is), your education system isn't great, well being is down, unemployment is up, you lose your job, your home etc would you be happy then just because you are away from England?

Maybe none of these bad things will happen. Maybe, all it will take to get sturgeon to pull her finger out and actually work on problems in our country rather than focus on petty arguments with Westminster. Maybe everything will be better.

But if we carry on with the current way of living, things are only going to get worse.

Fuck I hope not @wishiwasabraverman

But i think it’s unlikely as the full picture of the destruction it will cause will come out and most people won’t vote for it.