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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think Scotland will now get their independence in next few years after election result?

254 replies

wishiwasabraverman · 09/05/2021 20:28

Just that really...SNP did absolutely brilliantly. Shows that the majority of the Scottish people are behind them. Am I right in thinking they will get their independence in a couple of years?

OP posts:
LawnFever · 10/05/2021 00:24

@Roboticcarrot

Are there just going to be referendums until they get the result they want? Confused
The result who wants though? Because for the last one the majority of people got the result they wanted so I don’t get it Confused
toconclude · 10/05/2021 00:27

Well, they might. Whether they'll like it when they get it is quite another thing.

Morgoth · 10/05/2021 00:36

@StoneofDestiny

Scotland should do it in their own time and when it's right for them. I certainly support an independent Scotland.
Completely agree. I fully support their right to self-determination and what they want for their future. If I was a Scot seeing even more perpetual Conservative rule, I’d want independence too. Nicola is smart and cautious. She will wait until the optimal time to call one when the Yes sentiment is at its peak. Precision timing is going to be crucial.

There are several countries in the world that have referendums over the same thing every few years. Its actually quite common in many democracies. We have a general election every 5 years because big changes happen and people change their minds on things. Since the last Indy referendum, there has been two gigantic, life-altering events (Brexit and the Pandemic). It’s hardly the same country as we were a decade ago.

For the SNP to win one seat short of an outright majority in an election system deliberately designed to avoid a majority is astonishing. It’s such a gigantic victory. Winning 62/73 of the constituency seats alone (when the next biggest -the tories only got 5/73) gives them such a large mandate. It’s the equivalent of the Conservatives winning 86% of the seats in the U.K. and 550/650 seats. They have a comfortable outright pro-independence majority in Holyrood anyway because of the Greens which is what matters.

XDownwiththissortofthingX · 10/05/2021 00:53

That's seats. Not votes. Now tray again with actual numbers of votes

Entirely inconsequential.

The only thing that matters in representative democracies is seats. By your measure, Boris Johnson and the Tories have no mandate to form a government based on their vote share, and Brexit would have been abandoned thanks to being unable to muster the support of 50% of the electorate.

Only one party attempted to fight the Scottish GE as a single-issue referendum; the Conservatives. Their vote share is down, Scotland rejected their negative, visionless campaigning. They're now rowing back from their 'we won't allow it' narrative because as has long been apparent, they know their case for preventing it is legally unarguable.

It's inevitable their will be another referendum within the nest 5 years. If Unionists don't want Independence for Scotland, then all they have to do is vote to remain part of the UK. Adopting an untenable and profoundly undemocratic stance of attempting to deny one will only further embitter Scots are drive more of them towards independence. The Union is a voluntary agreement, there is no basis whatsoever for compelling it to continue using legal force.

XDownwiththissortofthingX · 10/05/2021 00:53

There*

bleedin' phone

Ivhadn · 10/05/2021 02:20

I could call Nicola many things but 'Idiot' certainly isn't one of them. She is a very clever woman and Scotland has been extremely lucky to have such a competent leader throughout the pandemic, regardless of your politics and your personal thoughts on her. She has been clear and concise, absolute head and shoulders above those in Westminster. It just proves how well Scotland can do things.
We are a country of many smart individuals, WHEN we get our independent country we have the CHOICE to vote for the government we want , not be stuck with the Tories that very few voted for. The point is we will have control. I can't understand why people still want to be treated like England's little pet. I have many English friends having lived there for 6 years.i respect them, however, highly educated people genuinely thought Scotland was actually north England and I was English.. besides the point of me thinking this rather unbelievable but not exactly important in the grand scheme of things, it just proves this is how we are seen in England, as their little pet that they "send money to" .Scotland well and truly pay their own way. Why is Westminster fighting tooth and nail to keep them. ( i remember Cameron getting scared and storming the streets of Glasgow in a right tizzy ) Scotland are quite capable of running their own affairs, we are not a country of idiots. We don't know what will happen is a lot of No voters opinion, i'm sorry, did you know what would happen with Brexit,? Do ee know what's going to happen if we stay? The country has changed since the last referendum, we were promised so much from Westminster, it all fell flat! Lies after lies, people have woken up and many changed their minds. Why not have another referendum, people can always vote no again, what is everyone scared of? Lets keep having a debate.

BlueVelvetStars · 10/05/2021 04:58

@Roboticcarrot

Are there just going to be referendums until they get the result they want? Confused

yip.. she's obsessed, borderline insane about the subject and is an embarrassment.

listentotherainonthewindowpane · 10/05/2021 06:55

@Ivhadn. Please don't say you respect the English and then go on to anecdotally "prove" how awful they are. yes I am sure there are people who think that Scotland is northern England. ....but it's not a description of how people think that I recognise, being English and leaving in the East.
Yes Scotland should have the chance to go Independent if they want to.,but looking at votes there is no clear mandate at the moment and if there was a vote now I believe it would be very close, perhaps it would put it to bed though.

also the tory majority isn't a true representation of English views......sadly until PR is adopted in some form many will never be represented at Westminster.

I would like to see an English parliament. With much more devolved powers for all devolved nations with a uk government at Westminster.
Referendum, it seems to me, cause an awful lot of division and I think it should be a much higher % for a majority. ie brexit should have been at least 60% in favour of leaving.

Ifailed · 10/05/2021 07:21

If Scotland wants an independence vote, so be it. However they should also allow Orkney & Shetland to have their independence votes as well.

NamechangedGamechanged12 · 10/05/2021 08:16

Why are so many people opposed to a second referendum? Why is Westminster so keep to stop it? And for the PP that said they don’t think Westminster will allow another referendum... this is exactly why we want one!! We are fed up with decisions for Scotland being made by Westminster!

newnortherner111 · 10/05/2021 08:27

If you mean OP this decade then no. Much as I support an independent Scotland.

There will be no referendum before 2024 unless Mr Johnson thinks that he will lose electorally by refusing one, and then if one is held it will be a narrow no vote. You know what you have with the status quo, people will be scared or just believe that they will be worse off at least in the short term, and to be truthful, the SNPs performance as a Scottish government has been woeful.

Even in the pandemic they have only just managed to be better than the Uk government, and nowhere near as reasonable as Mark Drakeford.

LawnFever · 10/05/2021 09:05

@NamechangedGamechanged12

Why are so many people opposed to a second referendum? Why is Westminster so keep to stop it? And for the PP that said they don’t think Westminster will allow another referendum... this is exactly why we want one!! We are fed up with decisions for Scotland being made by Westminster!
I’m perfectly happy for Scotland to have independence but the point of a referendum is that the outcome is binding, there’s been one, accept it.

There was a similar split on the Brexit vote, I personally voted the other way but we had to deal with it - why do people in Scotland feel they should get another vote on this when they’ve had one and clearly the majority of people didn’t want independence?

TheSandman · 10/05/2021 09:07

Referendum, it seems to me, cause an awful lot of division and I think it should be a much higher % for a majority. ie brexit should have been at least 60% in favour of leaving.

How is it that many other countries in the world, including the everso stable and successful Switzerland, manage to hold referendums without "tearing themselves apart" or "causing an awful lot of division".

Switzerland managed to hold nine of the buggers last year, during a pandemic, without exploding.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Swiss_referendums

LawnFever · 10/05/2021 09:08

Why not have another referendum, people can always vote no again, what is everyone scared of? Lets keep having a debate.

Because there’s been one, that was the opportunity and the majority of people didn’t want independence.

You might not like that, it might not be the way you voted but that’s democracy, you can’t keep having a referendum because you didn’t like the outcome.

MorrisZapp · 10/05/2021 09:11

If there is a referendum, it will be based upon individual votes, not constituency seats.

So in those terms, there's either no majority at all or a fag paper one at best.

Sturgeon is extremely clever. If she loses, she's absolutely fucked and she knows it. She doesn't want a referendum when the country is split almost exactly in half. It would be the end of her career. Even that fag paper majority will result in Brexit style wrangling and recriminations. Plus all the SNP MPs losing their Westminster incomes and lifestyles.

skirk64 · 10/05/2021 09:15

While I would be sad to see the Scots go, it would be very entertaining for the rest of the UK. The Scots would be leaving the union, therefore the rest of the UK would be in the position of power when it came to negotiations. Yes, they can leave, but if they don't pay us what we demand then they can have no entitlement to assets that are currently in Scotland but belong to the UK. It's true they could walk away from their share of the national debt, but that would badly damage their credit rating before they've even become independent.

The argument that the previous referendum was based on lies is laughable, by the way. All referendums and elections are based on lies! The most successful liar wins, hence the SNP maintain power.

TheSandman · 10/05/2021 09:20

She doesn't want a referendum when the country is split almost exactly in half.

It's a better position (from an Independantist's position) than a year before the 2014 referendum. The polls were stable during most of 2013, with "no" leading by an average of 17%. So we're already up from then.

A lot of minds were changed during the 2014 campaign. More have changed since.

cocacolacastleoflurve · 10/05/2021 09:21

@cuju2407 well we were having a debate...until you had to start with the personal insults. It's quite embarrassing when people are unable to hold a conversation with someone that has differing views than themselves without calling them 'stupid' for their views.

TheSandman · 10/05/2021 09:24

You might not like that, it might not be the way you voted but that’s democracy, you can’t keep having a referendum because you didn’t like the outcome

By that logic we'd better cancel all future General Elections, Local Elections, parish council election, bowling club committee elections - I mean once someone has been elected that's it then isn't it? Done. Democracy served.

OldEvilOwl · 10/05/2021 09:27

Hopefully and then Wales can follow suit. Support for Indi Wales definitely growing here, but not quite as much as in Independence in Scotland yet

UrAWizHarry · 10/05/2021 09:33

@LawnFever

Why not have another referendum, people can always vote no again, what is everyone scared of? Lets keep having a debate.

Because there’s been one, that was the opportunity and the majority of people didn’t want independence.

You might not like that, it might not be the way you voted but that’s democracy, you can’t keep having a referendum because you didn’t like the outcome.

We keep having elections every 5 years, should we not bother with that then?

The "once in a generation argument" is nonsense, especially since the entire basis of the no campaign last time around was that the only way for Scotland to remain in the EU - as the population overwhelmingly does - is to stay part of the UK. How did that work out?

Mistlewoeandwhine · 10/05/2021 09:36

I’m not Scottish but I can completely see why the Scots would want to break free. If that is what they want, good luck to them. I’m N.Irish, living in England and am from a Unionist background but the contempt with which the government has treated N.Ireland has made be feel much more open to a United Ireland.
The only downfall is that here in England we will have more and more of a Tory rule and that makes me feel really depressed.

Graffitiqueen · 10/05/2021 09:50

Can some of you really not grasp the difference between elections and a referendum?! Hmm

Chocolatericecakes · 10/05/2021 09:52

They forget that they begged for union because they were bankrupt

Not true, there is a serious lack of education around this. It doesn't help that the true history has been supressed for centuries, but it's there for anyone who wishes to do the research and not just believe unionist propaganda.

Do people who want independence understand Scotland will have to pay for all this themselves? I mean, obviously they must, but how do they think that happens?

With the tax and other revenues that will be retained and used in Scotland. How do other small countries survive?

Graffitiqueen · 10/05/2021 09:53

@UrAWizHarry staying in the EU really wasn't the entire basis for the campaign was it, come on be realistic.

Oh and if it mattered that much to the scottish people, then they would have given Nicola as stonking majority. They didn't did they?

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