I don't think the Dutch gov't have entered any contract to supply AZ vaccines to the UK.
The Dutch will be the ones who enforce the embargo wrt the Leiden plant. And were at the table where the EU member states gave their backing to the potential blocking mechanism. Mark Rutte made no bones about the fact he would enforce the decision if the UK just kept hoarding their own supplies while also expecting to receive supplies manufactured in the Netherlands.
Are export bans unlawful? The UK effectively put one at agreement stage with OU. The US have put one in place and India has too (although if you write to them nicely, they might waive). Governments using national emergency powers in emergency situations. It's a global pandemic and people are dying. Act of God or whatnot. Having said that, I doubt many EU member states really want to have export bans in place. Certainly not a country like the Netherlands. It is catching, though, and they may be looking at their responsibility to their own populations. An 'if you can't beat them, join them' sort of scenario.
The 18 million doses of AZ made available to the EU are part of the 62 million Covid vaccines they have distributed within the EU itself. While 77 million vaccines were exported out of the EU countries. As the UK were recipients of 20 million of those vaccines, I think the EU member states are looking at the fact that all traffic seems to be one way. Of the other 50 odd million vaccines, a large contingent may be Covax. I'd hope so anyway.
This is an interesting piece from Fortune. It states 6% of the UK's population have been fully vaccinated with both doses, and half have received the first jab. Only 11% of the EU population have received their first jabs.
Earlier this week, the European Commission expanded those rules to allow the blockage of shipments to countries that themselves have effective vaccine export bans, or that are far ahead of the EU in their own inoculation drives.
The targets here are plainly AstraZeneca and the U.K. Since the end of last year, the EU has exported 21 million COVID vaccine doses to the U.K., and the U.K. has exported precisely none—to the EU or anywhere else. Overall, the Commission said Thursday, the EU has exported 77 million doses and only dispensed 62 million on its own turf. Only 11.6% of the EU's adults have received their first dose of a COVID vaccine, while in the U.K. more than half of all adults have been vaccinated.
fortune.com/2021/03/26/astrazeneca-plant-halix-covid-vaccines-ema/