To think this will largely be over in two months?!

[ChristmasIvy]

I’m home schooling at the moment and surprised by how many other parents seem to think that this lockdown could continue for the rest of the academic year. I’m expecting the worst of the lockdown to be over by Feb half term - I.e. when millions of the most vulnerable will have received the vaccine, winter is almost over, and the seasonal drain on the NHS is alleviated. What am I missing?! I also believe we will be able to go on “normal” holidays again by Easter...

NotQuiteUsual loving your optimism! Hope it works out even earlier! We are need a safe holiday of sorts as staying at home is hardly a staycation!

Just to add a bit of optimism I am amazed in UK being first to both develop a globally accepted vaccine and mass vaccination. Yes some will say Israel being first to compulsory mass vaccination an international vaccine but they are naturally a much smaller population and in a constant war footing given their unique circumstances.

When it most matters most and as much as there are forever Covidiots - we still owe a massive debt of gratitude to our world class scientific community in coming up with the goods! Absolutely amazing for UK after all the political confusion and delayed reactive, confusing and no notice u turning unpredictable governance style.

If we can lose (“convert and convince”) many more of the silly trouble makers who are still protesting outside overwhelmed London hospitals and weekend protests etc we can think more optimistically!

Let’s hope we can beat this at some point this year but naturally we need to ensure we do so before the next seasonal flu winter months when traditionally the under funded NHS is perpetually stress tested pre Covid times.

NO way! I've been shielding (over 65 and underlying conditions) and will continue to do so until I get my second jab, which I don't expect until June. I expect the worst will be over by then. Going by last year, infections will drop off over the summer anyway. But I can see the SD and hand washing going on for a lot longer.

@ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia

Initially at the start of the year I was hopeful that this will end soon possibly before summer.

However given the recent worsening impacts of:

(1) festive mixing (contradictory some quasi permitted within confusing last minute and u turn rules apparently),

(2) winter flu and other seasonal diseases and

(3) more in person economic activity eg closed schools that are still actually open without enough physical social distancing space and seemingly more who’s not a key worker back at mass gathering workplaces etc etc

and

(3) Covidiots who are bored, reckless, selfish and blatant non ruling adhering

means this may drag on for much much longer.

Let’s hope possibly with more vaccination some sort of new reality before next winter!

At least mask and rules compliance (after 80k+ British excess fatalities and nearly a year) the UK is finally joining the global norm in terms of basic pandemic damage limitation risk mitigation management.

I am still forever perplexed by (some) British self exceptionalism and entitlement culture.

Luckily possibly most Brits understand the basic science and endeavour to compile with the rules and not forever ignore them or push the boundaries for self interest.

Having previously been based in numerous global business centres I am forever reminded back in central London why things are so different here. Behaviour patterns and expectations in a pandemic and things like basic common sense is sadly missing in certain British quarters. There is for instance the legal by design loophole on self declared mask exemption. This is particularly convenient for the piss takers to jump on this no brainer convenient bandwagon to dodge criminal records and financial penalties. However obviously this type of common place behaviour may well have contributed to Covid fatalities. Seemingly on many TfL buses everyone is “exempt”. It makes a mockery for those that have been professionally qualified and diagnosed as genuinely exempt. Science would suggest legal medical exemption does not mean technical physical exemption from infection and onwards super spreading particularly as much of the disease is super mutating and more contagious. Those vulnerable, disabled and needing specific support should ideally be catered for as appropriate to their disability accordingly.

Social distancing and lack of personal hand hygiene is also an inherent UK issue too. In addition the superficial mask chin support fashion is not that particularly risk mitigating. So many customer facing employees in retail and transportation preferring to chance it than science too as so many also widely against the inconvenience and discomfort of face coverings too.

Overall not sure what the final fatalities tally would be (possibly 100-200k!) but current daily one every one or two minutes needs to be carefully examined if many of these are preventable through public moderating their collective behaviour and being mindful of their potential Covid footprint.

29 August - 18,000 people attended an anti lockdown protest in Berlin ignoring all social distancing/ mask wearing regulations 18 November- police fire water cannons to disperse anti lockdown/Covid deniers in Berlin Literally 2 minutes google to find these examples. Very much doubt it’s limited to Germany alone but show me where we had 18,000 people out peddling this rubbish ? Don’t dispute for a second that this country has more than it’s fair share of idiots but we are certainly not alone in that and fed up of posts suggesting that somehow every other country is dealing with absolutely every issue re Covid in a vastly superior manner to us

@Tiktokersmiracle

If Boris says march, I'd say more like June Remember the first Lockdown was meant to last 3 weeks? That went well didn't it? A combo of not vaccinating 24/7, or properly with the 12 weeks between jabs, plus a large amount of people who don't trust the vaccine for whatever reason is going to cause chaos and a continuation of this

When did he say a 3 week lockdown. They said review in 3 weeks. You really weren't paying attention if you believe he said that.

The did 3 week reviews so as not to panic the country. It was always going to be longer than that.

As for 24 hour vaccination centres. That would slow down vaccinations because it is better to spread out doses and staff into the community. At least until we have the 70s and over done.

The oxford actually works better with a larger gap between doses. The Pfizer I don't know enough about.

Take up is so far above expectations. Their may be less take up amongst the BAME population but that is still unclear. Even then it won't affect most of the UK. As BAME is a very small percentage of the population in most areas. London may have an issue because BAME population is over half the people here. However the percentage of people who have already had the virus in London is very high. Neil Fergusson reckons a combination of vaccine and herd immunity should bring us out of this soon. Whitty says it will be months not years. Both these men are pretty doom and gloom normal.

So in conclusion cheer up it is all good.

@DonnaDonna01 I agree with you, I can go from positive to complete despair within 2 posts on these type threads. Going to ban myself from reading anymore on this subject where Mumsnet is concerned.

I think schools back after Easter. And restrictions back to a sort of Tier 2/3 level at that point.

UK based holidays probably OK in the summer.

Maybe a tightening again in September to Tier 3 style.

All of which depends on the virus not mutating again into one that the vaccine does not work with! Lets not think about that though.

I think so. Over the worst of it by April.
Booked lots of concerts for this year, no reason why they can't go ahead. I am feeling optimistic

I agree with you OP

@Jangle33

Think they should have closed the borders in the summer then we might not be in the mess we are now!

Agreed! I still can't believe how open the UK has been and NO checking on arrival! Beyond ridiculous!

We should of shut the boarders, similar to Oz. I know they've got their own problems with many nationals stuck overseas, hence I say similar.

I don’t see the schools back to March or April. We haven’t yet seen the full cases for Christmas and new year

I think schools will start going back in april ,vaccines will be rolled out by then to the most vunerable and hopefulky we start getting numbers down .
I don't think they will open oubs before schools and talk of pubs in may as probably be outside only.
Restrictions will get lifted slowly , places pit in tier 4/3 or so on,
Obviously another strain could come along and mess it up but I think we need to at least think positive and hopefully we ban travel from these countries until under control.

Re: 24/7 jabs hancock did not rule that out but that can't be done if you don't have the stock, we have lots on order but its not all sat there ready to go as suprisingly we aren't the only ones who want it.
I know a couple over 80's who have had both jaba , but also read today that some surgeries are having a few no shows , which isn't ideal .

Also re: holidays some are going now so why not in summer ,

My company has already told everyone wfh will be until at least September.

Either, vaccination goes well, Test Trace and Isolate is handed back to the NHS to do properly, the open up is done carefully, things steadily keep improving, we have an outside learning summer school month of June maybe? Followed by a pretty normal July and August, and the kids go back to school properly in September.

Or, the government open up on a pre-arranged arbitrary date in February, irrespective of whether the data says it's a good idea to do so, and things are at crisis point again within a month, a pattern which repeats until at least June.

Because the virus was inadequately controlled (again) cases and deaths rise steadily from September and we live through Autumn Winter 2020 all over again but with lower death numbers and even longer hospital stays.

There's a postcode lottery about how quickly vulnerable groups are getting vaccines. I'm group 4 CEV (ie within first 500k-4million) first dose predicted between mid feb to mid March, second dose if 12 weeks later will fall May- June (assuming first dose targets are met which may not be the case). It takes few weeks after first vaccine jab to develop some type of protection- so that means Mar- April 2021 - ie. Easter!!!

And that's only the first 4 vulnerable groups - there are 9 identified vulnerable groups being targeted as vaccination priorities which make up 90% of those mostly at risk of complications or death- looks to be June first dose for some. All of those 9 vulnerable (of death/ hospitalisation) groups - is before they can get to vaccinating teachers. General population adults will be first dose July onwards.

I think return to onsite schooling depends on how successful lockdown adherence is to reduce infection spread (R), how new variant plays out, and I wonder if tighter rules will be brought in for this period within next few weeks.

My guess is we are looking at least after Easter for primary schools, unless schools get regular testing achieved before then. Universities have arranged online learning all this entire 2nd term. If primaries return after feb half term, that'd be a huge achievement.

But I can see there's potential that school return could go past Easter. to May 2021 half term if infection spread doesn't settle and reduce sufficiently.

@Therealone, I saw Boris say it on the hour long briefing a few days ago. He mentioned 8pm. Then Matt Hancock mentioned 3am . ( Not sure if on same update or next one).

@Doilooklikeatourist

I think it's going to be after Easter too ( I think Easter Sunday is April 4th )

I don't have children in school , so can't comment on that , but I think travel and hospitality restrictions will carry on until then ( so no going away Feb half term , Easter , Mother's Day lunch out etc )

We live in Wales , they very carefully say those 60+ will have been offered a vaccine by the spring ( not given , offered )

They say offered - they mean have had their first injections if they want them. They're just being careful not to make it sound mandatory.

"Take up is so far above expectations. Their may be less take up amongst the BAME population but that is still unclear. "

Why would there be a lower uptake from BAME people?

@MrsMarrio

Things will never be normal again

I'm sorry if you've lost people you loved, if you have then no, things fir you won't ever look normal again.

However, if you just mean 'In General', they will once the first phase of vaccines have been 1/2 done & they've started on phase two (us lot with asthma,diabetes,heart/kidney issues etc) things will really start to get back to normal. Then once they've done 2nds for first phase, started 2nds for second phase & begun the third phase. Things will gradually go back to more if how they were, I think the summer will feel quite relaxed but I expect to have some restrictions next winter, but nothing like this year.

Then once everyone over 18 that wants to has been vaccinated (and obviously any children it's safe for) then things will just keeps improving.

I think for some it will be have a lasting impact on their lives (bereavements & trauma if working frontline NHS etc & some people shielding) & for others the economic impact but for a large number things will get 'back to normal'.

I have been exceptionally cautious since last Feb. Only done things I've absolutely had to, but I'm optimistic got a return to life fairly much like pre 2020

Ok. I had to stop reading as it was getting too depressing. I've said what I think. Maybe it's too optimistic, but right now it's getting me through this winter, this wave. If it turns out differently to what I think, I'll deal with it at the time. Worrying now isn't going to change it & MAYBE we can help it improve if everyone thinks & acts as though it'll be much better by the summer. Maybe fewer will break the rules if they think were in the final stretch?!

I think it is all up in the air currently, but a lot of uni's have warned learning will be suspended till march at least. The numbers that the government want the NHS to achieve is optimistic but verging on unrealistic as it isn't just as simple as getting people in to work, the training , liabilities, DBS checks, occupational health checks etc take weeks for us to increase our staffing numbers. Also and ultimately it depends on the rates per day and week, if we reduce cases as we increase vaccinations then easter seems a reasonable goal to expect.

I so want schools back etc. My children need it.

But I'm alsonfrightened they'll gk bsck before Ive had my vaccine. Group 6. Ie they might send schools back after group.

I was told my 1 day off beginning of term was an unauthorised absence by standard letter. Well. I was right wasnt I?!?! So school wont be impressed if I don't send them back. I wish the vaccines were faster.

Chris Whitty - next winter restrictions are press conference www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-some-covid-restrictions-could-return-next-winter-chief-medical-officer-warns-12180133

Boris schools in some form by the summer
www.entertainmentdaily.co.uk/news/schools-might-not-open-until-summer-hints-boris-johnson/

February half term! Not a chance!!

Would be much better for everyone to put pressure on MPs etc to review key worker definition and close workplaces that shouldn’t be open. There is only one way to get this better and that’s to slow transmission and put in place proper track and trace. The vaccine won’t solve this on its own.