To think this will largely be over in two months?!

[ChristmasIvy]

I’m home schooling at the moment and surprised by how many other parents seem to think that this lockdown could continue for the rest of the academic year. I’m expecting the worst of the lockdown to be over by Feb half term - I.e. when millions of the most vulnerable will have received the vaccine, winter is almost over, and the seasonal drain on the NHS is alleviated. What am I missing?! I also believe we will be able to go on “normal” holidays again by Easter...

I worry that unless they reduce the high number of children still attending school (mine still has at least 10 from every class in, all school staff doing their usual hours), tighten up working from home, unnecessary travel and all of people just carrying on as if there is no virus, the lockdown will be mostly pointless.

We've cancelled all 'non urgent' and 'elective' surgery for 3 months. We've sent staff to icu again. The trust is looking to get rid of all patients who are able to be discharged so we have more beds for icu

I think Easter is probably more realistic for some type of face to face schooling. I think there will be a gradual relaxation if the vaccine programs work. I expect in the next few years it’ll come like MRSA in that it’ll still be with us and people will still die but very small numbers and the punishments for non isolation if you test positive will be huge.

We only need to stay locked down until the over 70s have had their first jab, plus 3 weeks to allow immunity to develop. After that we should be safe from further rapid increases in death rates and hospitalisation rates. (These rates will drop in the next week or 2 due to lockdown anyway). Continuing spread amongst children and young healthy adults doesn't require lockdown although some other measures may be continued. Nor do we need to stay locked down until the elderly have all had 2 jabs (most of them will have had these by march or April anyway).
That is with 2 fairly major caveats. 1. That the vaccine does provide a high level of protection even during the initial 12 weeks after only one dose and 2. That there are no mutations that are resistant to the vaccine.
But optimistically, end march for school reopening looks reasonable, with other less essential things following in the weeks after that.

I don’t reckon school till summer term. I’m guessing no jollity before then - zipping off abroad etc. Anyway once the horror of covid starts to clear some of the more prosaic disappointments of Brexit (restrictions on travel/ cost of travel) likely to become more apparent.

expect in the next few years it’ll come like MRSA in that it’ll still be with us and people will still die but very small numbers and the punishments for non isolation if you test positive will be huge.

I think it will be more like any other infectious disease where illness and deaths is accepted. Flu, colds, chicken pox etc. Vaccination will carry on but I doubt anyone will bother with isolation or testing outside of healthcare settings. It's quite possible that covid will kill far fewer per year than flu in the future.

Cases in Wales in most areas are now lower than when children were still in school. If they're still not back in 6 weeks a lot of people will struggle with the reasoning around this.

We only need to stay locked down until the over 70s have had their first jab, plus 3 weeks to allow immunity to develop
Unfortunately, the fact that currently half of the cases of very seriously ill patients on critical care units in London being people who are not on the priority lists for vaccinations suggests that this is not correct.

@SnackSizeRaisin yes that’s pretty much what I meant! It’ll still be with us but in such low numbers etc Fingers crossed!

Sounds awful but the preferable option would be for the NHS to be overwhelmed than this carrying on for more than a few more months

NO ONE KNOWS!!!! It doesn't matter what your mate who works in a hospital or school thinks, no one knows!!!! All this speculation and guessing is just pointless. When the numbers go down, things will be eased.

Mid Feb is too soon.

But I do think that the end is in sight. If I'm thinking really positive, maybe after Easter, if I'm not so positive... end of summer.

Initially at the start of the year I was hopeful that this will end soon possibly before summer.

However given the recent worsening impacts of:

(1) festive mixing (contradictory some quasi permitted within confusing last minute and u turn rules apparently),

(2) winter flu and other seasonal diseases and

(3) more in person economic activity eg closed schools that are still actually open without enough physical social distancing space and seemingly more who’s not a key worker back at mass gathering workplaces etc etc

and

(3) Covidiots who are bored, reckless, selfish and blatant non ruling adhering

means this may drag on for much much longer.

Let’s hope possibly with more vaccination some sort of new reality before next winter!

At least mask and rules compliance (after 80k+ British excess fatalities and nearly a year) the UK is finally joining the global norm in terms of basic pandemic damage limitation risk mitigation management.

I am still forever perplexed by (some) British self exceptionalism and entitlement culture.

Luckily possibly most Brits understand the basic science and endeavour to compile with the rules and not forever ignore them or push the boundaries for self interest.

Having previously been based in numerous global business centres I am forever reminded back in central London why things are so different here. Behaviour patterns and expectations in a pandemic and things like basic common sense is sadly missing in certain British quarters. There is for instance the legal by design loophole on self declared mask exemption. This is particularly convenient for the piss takers to jump on this no brainer convenient bandwagon to dodge criminal records and financial penalties. However obviously this type of common place behaviour may well have contributed to Covid fatalities. Seemingly on many TfL buses everyone is “exempt”. It makes a mockery for those that have been professionally qualified and diagnosed as genuinely exempt. Science would suggest legal medical exemption does not mean technical physical exemption from infection and onwards super spreading particularly as much of the disease is super mutating and more contagious. Those vulnerable, disabled and needing specific support should ideally be catered for as appropriate to their disability accordingly.

Social distancing and lack of personal hand hygiene is also an inherent UK issue too. In addition the superficial mask chin support fashion is not that particularly risk mitigating. So many customer facing employees in retail and transportation preferring to chance it than science too as so many also widely against the inconvenience and discomfort of face coverings too.

Overall not sure what the final fatalities tally would be (possibly 100-200k!) but current daily one every one or two minutes needs to be carefully examined if many of these are preventable through public moderating their collective behaviour and being mindful of their potential Covid footprint.

What really is the point in these threads to be honest. You’ve got the we’ll be sorted by Feb half term to the we’ll never be the same again and restrictions for another 12months plus. You can go from optimistic to suicidal in two comments, I don’t think these threads help anyone. My last Covid post and last Covid thread.

I thinkntgia will almost be a repeat of last year. The new variant is much more contagious. Even socialising outside isn't as safe as it was before.
The vaccine takes an absolute minimum of 3 weeks for immunity to build. Slower in some faster in others. Plus the 2nd dose is needed. The people vaccinated today will start to have some low level immunity in a few weeks time. The need of the 2nd vaccine to boost it further. Some is better than none, but still at higher risk of catching a super contagious strain. Even after both vaccines no one is totally immune.

Thus virus is everywhere now and super contagious. Even with vaccines on our side I don't think things will improve much until late March. It will be May or June imo, before we can live with some kind of normality.
Next winter will be a shit show all over again. Not as bad as thus i jope but with some restrictions and a fucked NHS.

I really hope I'm wrong but a super contagious strain thats now rife amongst us V a vaccine that won't even start to reach the busiest people, the bulk of the UK workforce, bulk of most active members of society - the under 50s, until summer and autumn, is what we're looking at.
There's hope but not a quick solution.

I think you may be just wishing it would be over.

None of the facts at present, even vaccination, point to this crisis being over any time soon.

I'd say at the very luckiest, Autumn, and schools back fully and properly in September.

But there's a chance it could last all year.

I think it will be Easter before school's can consider going back, I don’t think they will hit the target set for mid Feb judging by what else has gone on. And the Pfizer jab has to have a second at 3 weeks to be truely effective and that’s not going to happen

Plus it’s still not known if people can still transmit the virus even if they have a jab so SD has to remain in place, and no one knows how l9ng the jab remains effective for

I’ve always been very pro suppression and I was thinking after the groups 1-4 and a fair bit of 5-9 (hopefully April) combined with better weather, some natural infected immunity too we’d be back to similar to last summer.

However there are some really vocal voices saying need full suppression till everyone’s vaccinated and closed borders akin to Oz going forward. This actually terrifies me as the economy won’t survive.

April is realistic but there’s a real cult growing out there for full suppression 😱

@SnackSizeRaisin

We only need to stay locked down until the over 70s have had their first jab, plus 3 weeks to allow immunity to develop. After that we should be safe from further rapid increases in death rates and hospitalisation rates. (These rates will drop in the next week or 2 due to lockdown anyway). Continuing spread amongst children and young healthy adults doesn't require lockdown although some other measures may be continued. Nor do we need to stay locked down until the elderly have all had 2 jabs (most of them will have had these by march or April anyway). That is with 2 fairly major caveats. 1. That the vaccine does provide a high level of protection even during the initial 12 weeks after only one dose and 2. That there are no mutations that are resistant to the vaccine. But optimistically, end march for school reopening looks reasonable, with other less essential things following in the weeks after that.

Preach

@MrsMarrio

Things will never be normal again

Care to elaborate ? I honestly think MN headquarters should step in on posts like this. We’re all having a crap time - I haven’t seen my parents for months , my dd is missing out on her University education and my dad’s chemo treatment has been delayed but we can cope so far with life as it is. Lots of people can’t and are literally on the edge and posts like yours are truly dangerous . Do you get some weird kick out of making people who are already vulnerable feel complete despair ? Of course life will get back to normal. There have been pandemics before but you seriously think with the advancements in science that this will be the one that changes the World forever or do you just want to terrify vulnerable people ? Shame on you

If Boris says march, I'd say more like June
Remember the first Lockdown was meant to last 3 weeks?
That went well didn't it?
A combo of not vaccinating 24/7, or properly with the 12 weeks between jabs, plus a large amount of people who don't trust the vaccine for whatever reason is going to cause chaos and a continuation of this

I personally think primary schools will be back after half term, give or take a few weeks unless a major change in the virus is found. I don’t think they’ll require much of an improvement for them to go back given they were very nearly not closed. Other restriction will be considerably longer. In terms of the vaccine roll out if does seem quite patchy. Where I am my whole NHS community team will be vaccinated within the next 7 days- and that is mirrored across all the different NHS staff across the city- done in the next 2 weeks or so. All the over 80’s I personally know have had their first doses and some 2nd( if your 2nd was due before jan 4th you got it). It’s not true you have no immunity until at least 21 days, immunity really starts to kick in at around 10 days, quite good by 14 days, even better by 21. The jury’s out on the effect of the increased spacing- we’ll see 🤷‍♀️

I've booked a caravan holiday for the 25th of July. So I'm hoping at the very latest, almost normality by the 24th of July

I know I'm being optimistic booking it! But I don't care, I'm quite happy in my optimistic bubble. .

Couple of months, as you say, op and then all the kids will be back at school.

@CSIblonde

I love your glass half full approach. But I predicted to a friend the vaccine roll out cockups back in Nov. Realistically, we are looking at Autumn as earliest normality . GP's are still reporting supply issues even now the army has taken over supply logistics. Especially/also, as Boris stated no one would take up 24/7 jabs if they offered them, as per Israels highly successful approach. I would go for a jab at 3am if offered, personally. To me it's the only way Spring targets will be met.

Vaccine cock ups? What the actual fuck?